roaming_comrade 454 Posted October 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, gcreptile said: ^^^never heard of their polls. They go against pretty much every other established polling institute - and I mean every single one. Edit: Eh, wingnutty... a quote: "Asked who has had a more positive impact on criminal justice 41 percent say Trump, the same number say Kim Kardasian and just 18 percent say Biden." The Rasmussen Polls seem to see Trump leading by a bit and they were on point in 2016 when all other polls werent. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,214 Posted October 4, 2020 Rasmussen is also in the "narrative polling" business, but even their latest poll had Biden up by 8 points: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_sep30 Clinton won the national vote by 2,1%, the polling error, according to Nate Silver's site, was only about 1,8 points - since his model showed a final result of Clinton +3,9%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/ It took me a while to realize that Clinton never really ran away with it. The polling industry has also realized where their big mistake in 2016 was: not weighting the sample by education. This has been corrected now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ThePrematureBurial 224 Posted October 4, 2020 Calm down. All the signs indicate that Biden is going to win. I'm just afraid of the people who want a war against Iran so badly. They could involve the European Union in this war. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,119 Posted October 4, 2020 A fascinating tidbit: the polling in Alaska and South Carolina is actually currently closer than the polling in Michigan and Wisconsin according to 538. Now I’d be stunned if either of the two Republican states actually flipped, but as I said before if there was a shock upset state that could happen, it would be Alaska or South Carolina. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gooseberry Crumble 5,204 Posted October 5, 2020 14 hours ago, Joey Russ said: A fascinating tidbit: the polling in Alaska and South Carolina is actually currently closer than the polling in Michigan and Wisconsin according to 538. Now I’d be stunned if either of the two Republican states actually flipped, but as I said before if there was a shock upset state that could happen, it would be Alaska or South Carolina. Lindsay Graham would be a major political scalp and victorious success for the democrats if they manage to pull of his South Carolina Senate seat. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,119 Posted October 5, 2020 For those who don’t know why I think the Alaska senate race is more competitive than I thought it was, well, the thread gives a good idea on what’s going on with Sullivan’s campaign: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaptainChorizo 1,898 Posted October 5, 2020 They won a Senate Election in the state in 2008 against a Republican incumbent dealing with a huge corruption scandal,given that track record the DNC should be flooding Al Gross campaign with money to run ads Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Creep 7,011 Posted October 7, 2020 Election already bought and paid for. Our new U.S. currency when we wake up 4th of November Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,119 Posted October 7, 2020 The Republican pollster has Biden up by plus 12!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,066 Posted October 7, 2020 Not long ago, Trump was saying how, if the Democrats won, it would definitely be a fix. Now, the exact opposite is true. He’s fucked. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Old Crem 3,164 Posted October 7, 2020 If Biden is president I will eat my hat. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,119 Posted October 7, 2020 Well, someone was 100% correct about the predictions of Nuclear War and 20 million dying of Covid by March, so I guess Trump will win after all... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 18,967 Posted October 7, 2020 I may be the only person excited about Harris Pence debate. Pence alone in a head to head with a woman in a room, may lead to his last remaining nut being cut off. Harris belonging to a minority susceptible to COVID may be the first live debate death. It's all terribly terribly.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,119 Posted October 8, 2020 That’s it. I’m officially voting for the fly on Mike Pence’s head as president for 2020. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,405 Posted October 8, 2020 It's all a show. Trump will win, they want people to think he's in trouble but ultimately he'll prevail. Like professional wrestling really you can make anyone a credible threat with the right promotion. Something big will go down between now and 2025 and I'm thinking a world war with china and Iran. They'll need an authoritarian strongman as leader. Wars have always followed depressions and big economic downturns. You can already see the battle lines being drawn https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54431615 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/world/asia/china-propaganda-united-states.html#click=https://t.co/84Tn5eZCJN https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3103464/does-us-military-uniform-suggest-it-preparing-war-china 1 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,066 Posted October 8, 2020 6 hours ago, Joey Russ said: That’s it. I’m officially voting for the fly on Mike Pence’s head as president for 2020. Mike Pence’s fly has a Twitter account. Already has 100k followers. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,066 Posted October 8, 2020 In case it mattered a solitary fuck, this is who Brits want to win the election. Quite extraordinary that the vast majority of Tories want a Democrat to win. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
torbrexbones 717 Posted October 8, 2020 I've not been following too closely, is there a third candidate? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 12,066 Posted October 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, torbrexbones said: I've not been following too closely, is there a third candidate? There were big hopes for Kanye West. What a shame that didn’t work out. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Great Cornholio 818 Posted October 8, 2020 Why do people rely on polls so much? Polls are easily manipulated. I'm sure its not as black and white as all that, otherwise Trump would've never been elected in the first place. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
torbrexbones 717 Posted October 8, 2020 44 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said: There were big hopes for Kanye West. What a shame that didn’t work out. I was just thinking that if a big name celeb put their name forward they would be a shoe in for the job. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,214 Posted October 8, 2020 Been waiting for this, Biden just reached a new peak in the 538 polling average, being 9,8 pts ahead of Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ His own share of the vote has been peaking for a week now, but that's only natural because more and more undecided voters choose a candidate. But the margin between the two has never been bigger. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,119 Posted October 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Kenny McCormick said: Why do people rely on polls so much? Polls are easily manipulated. I'm sure its not as black and white as all that, otherwise Trump would've never been elected in the first place. The polls weren’t that off actually. The polls were spot on for the popular vote and while Michigan and Pennsylvania averages said Clinton would win, they were within the margin of error. Only Wisconsin was really significantly off in the polls. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted October 8, 2020 5 hours ago, torbrexbones said: I was just thinking that if a big name celeb put their name forward they would be a shoe in for the job. It's too late for anyone else to enter themselves as a candidate now. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
