RoverAndOut

Shows what I know.

One slight flaw with that. In the first round, Corbyn won 49.6% of the party members votes. That is full members, not affiliates or £3ers. He'd have certainly won the leadership without a single £3 spent. The easiest way is to get him to resign, or failing that, just not re-nominating him. Two of his nominees are dead now after all. And another's the Mayor of London.

Lord Ashcroft has released a load of post-Brexit polling and has come up with a lot of interesting - if largely predictable - findings. Among them, these concerning the Tory Leadership... People who voted Conservative at the last General Election came down 58-42 in favour of Leave. Among Conservative voters, their preferred next leaders were as follows: LEAVE Boris 43% Gove 19% May 15% IDS 8% (No, really...) REMAIN May 28% Osborne 22% Boris 12% Davidson 10% Overall, apparently, this converts to Boris 28%, May 18%, Davidson 10%, Gove 9%, Osborne 8%. Now that's Tory voters, not members, but if we say the 9% of Gove's (plus whatever support IDS gets) goes to Boris, that puts him around 40%. May gets Davidson and Osborne's support, so that's around 35%. Then there's another quarter of the vote up for grabs. I personally can't see past Boris, he's popular nationally and riding the crest of a wave. Plus, the next leader almost certainly has to be a Brexiteer. I think May's the only Remainer they'd accept, given she SO lukewarm, although I read a piece in one of the papers saying Eurosceptics feel she didn't have the courage of her convictions where Boris did and will punish her for that. I can't see it being an outsider, it will be someone big, and I think the Tory Brexiteers will unite around Boris, like the party did around Michael Howard when they knifed IDS. The Remainers won't stay silent and will put up somebody under their banner, but only when the vote happens will we see how divided the party actually is.

It is win-win for them.If they keep Corbyn the centre left Voters will go to them but if they ditch Corbyn those activists who rejoined the Labour party to elect Corbyn will need some where else to go. It could be the Greens but Tim Farron is not tainted by coalition so he could pick some up. The other problem is for Labour how do they get rid of Corbyn. Labour MPs could keep his name off the ballot paper but Labour Members would not forgive this. If his name is on the ballot paper he wins and turns the tables on the plotters. That's what I've been thinking about. Hardly anyone has mentioned those pro-Europe Tories yet they are the ones who'll be grieving the most from this vote. Their European dream, which was signed up by Ted Heath in 1973, is dead. They have been marginalised within their own party but a large minority of the Rank and File are still in the party, for the moment. That's a sizeable number of disaffected voters to tap into. The Liberals slate has been wiped cleaned by the electorate in 2015 so it may still be too early but they can build up again. Farron seems a nice chap but they desperately need someone of the charisma of the rootin', tootin' dog shootin' Jeremy Thorpe to lasso those wet Tories in. As for Labour, well they're in a bit of a pickle. A Blairite coup would be suicide as there's still a lot in the party tainted by New Labour association. Maybe they need someone new and not tainted such as Dan Jarvis or Keir Starmer who could steer a path between NL, the Hampstead liberals, Islington latte left and the right-wing WC likes of Hoey and Field as well as appeal to Kennedy Lib Dems and the Euro Tories so as to reconstitute a sort of Centrist alternative. But it wont be easy and it'll take time as the centre-ground, so beloved of Blair/Cameron has effectively been destroyed... I feel there's a very noisy, purple-and-yellow-clad brigade of Union Jack-waving Cheshire Cats nobody's mentioning. UKIP's purpose has ended. Now they have a new purpose. Their purpose is to do to Labour in England what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland. And the worrying thing is I think they stand a chance. I'd like to say 4 million is their ceiling but unless something changes I'm not sure I see a way back for Labour. Yes, I know, they have 229 MPs, but you'd be surprised how quickly that can be whittled down (see, again, Scotland). I've voted Labour all my life (admittedly this consists of only 10 years-worth of votes) and right now I've no idea where my next votes going. I want a pragmatic, progressive party that can deliver me the country I want to see. That country took a hit on Thursday and I'm not sure how the new landscape will look. Lib Dems aren't going to recover any time soon, I agree with msc that the Greens are about where they're going to get now, SNP will continue to dominate Scotland, for as long as Scotland remains. The political present is a fight between a warring Tory party, a scrambling Labour party and a rampant UKIP.

To be honest I'd love to see federalism creep into Britain, it might start to rectify the democratic deficit that led to Thursdays horrendous decision. The signs seem to be pointing the opposite way though. It's always going to be a domino effect in my opinion though in the order of Scotland. Northern Ireland and then Wales seeing those two countries succeed and abandoning England. Im getting massively fucked off with all this shit. It was a DEMOCRATIC VOTE!! There wouldn't be half the wank going on if remain had won by the same margin, some of them are acting worse than jack booted fascists, democracy is only a demand if it works for them. Im also mightily irked when Im getting battered around the effing head with the 'yoof of the country' argument. What the f**k is it? Playschool?? There are multiple millions of older people in this country, people like me who may well still be around in 20 or thirty years time, just like the know all kids out there who seem to think the Earth has to be handed down to them like somesort of effing inheritance. Nobody owns the Planet, each generation exists on it within the time frame they are alive in, we take things as we find them. effing hell, no generation has been bequeathed a utopia, we have all had to face issues, we always will so stop effing whinging that us old cunts are throwing away your futures, your futures will be what YOU make them when you get there, don't blame us for everything. The masses who voted out don't live in places like London or Newcastle, we live in counties that have massively struggled with issues ranging from the pressure on schools and public services through migration to low pay, shit jobs and not being able to get social housing or even private rentals ( which are rented out to migrants) Through all of this they have been labelled xenophobic, racists, small minded and everything else in between by people that enjoy the benefits of City life where they don't have to wait every hour for a effing bus and the local deli does tofu and caviar. This country has been massively damaged and its been damaged by a considerable amount of remain supporters who have blamed out voters for daring to ruin their social and environmental utopian dream. The bitterness is effing sickening tbh. I actually thought we would remain by a landslide, a shit happens for me moment but there you go. I was as shocked as anybody that the out vote won, im pleased about it but there is work to do. We are out of the EU but Europeans, we will still buy their goods, they will still buy ours and we can still work together on a whole plethora of issues that will benefit the masses. Basically, what the common market was envisaged to become. Can we not just grow a collective pair and get on with things? Ta. PS: Somebody sort this bastard filter out and all the other issues or find somebody that can pronto!! Thinking it's a horrendous decision doesn't mean not respecting the decision. You've made your bed, we'll lie in it, but we don't have to be happy about it. Nigel Farage was making excuses for losing at 2am and already preparing to start the bid for Referendum 2.0 in earnest. He even said last May that a 52-48 Remain win would not settle the argument. If you're seriously telling me that if the result was 52-48 the other way everyone would just accept it then I think you're immensely optimistic. The result was 52-48, the country is quite obviously split down the middle. This isn't the whining of a disgruntled minority, this is half the country going 'What?!' I've put up with ever-louder Euroscepticism all my adult life, and it's pissed me off. Now the roles are reversed: you got your way and we Remainers are now in the not-so-quiet minority and apparently it's going to piss you off just as much.

Set up by a bloke who works in Spain. How Wales got away with that one I don't know. Poor Norn Iron.

LIKE this post if you want me to slap a warning on Eesti. :-D Retweet for Boris, Favourite for Teresa. Oh hang on, wrong site...

The game does not become void. just ended. A one off or repeated in the next parliament? Fair point Biblio, I'm blaming the fact I was bereft and operating on 3 hours sleep for my error. And I'm up for another go, although I'll be honest, I'm sure they'll find a way around having another election. Which leads me to.... Quicker in terms of time taken but not necessarily easier. To dissolve Parliament, there has to be agreement of 2/3rds of the House (so around 417 by my reckoning) or else a vote of no confidence in the government. If the latter happens there is a fortnight to form a new government before a general election is called, but if they can use that whenever they like then how does the Fixed Term Parliaments Act not just rely on a government sticking to the rules rather than dissolving itself whenever it feels like it could win a general like before? I'm not sure I see a clear way for the House to get to 417 unless it is agreed on all sides that we need a new election to elect our Brexit negotiating government. Boris will likely be riding the crest of a wave as leader and will be up for boosting his majority, but Labour wouldn't support that if it looks likely, especially if Corbyn is still leader. If Corbyn isn't, and Labour have enjoyed a bump in the polls, Boris may not be keen on taking a chance that the electorate won't 'do a Churchill' and say 'thanks for getting us out, now we want the other guys to negotiate for us'. Worse still would be a bump in support for UKIP in the autumn while Farage milks this for all its worth. On the flip side, while repealing a law is tricky and time-consuming, once it's repealed, they can do what they like, and unlike the FTPA, it would only (eventually) need a simple majority to pass the repeal. Unless it's clear that Boris can get a hugely improved majority, I think he'll be keen to get on with ruling and not want to take the chance with another election - not to mention a third national poll inside a year. I suspect the By-Election Bingo will get it's 5 years. And with it, I'll get some points for Mr Cameron's honourable resignation.

He deleted his career because he assumed, wrongly, that because he won the last election with a clear majority, against all bets and forecasts, he thought that his support to remain was a given. He was well effing wrong. It had nothing to do with the majority (which was only 12). It was that he never intended to get a majority in the first place. Miliband's weakness royally fucked the Tories. Osborne pledged £10 billion of spending cuts, knowing that in a coalition agreement this would get watered down to, say, half that. Cameron promised an In-Out referendum if we gave his party an overall majority, a safe bet because we were heading for another hung parliament and Labour were most likely going to form the next government anyway. Once the Tories got their majority, he had no option but to stand by the £10 billion cuts and that he had no option but to hold his promised referendum. His majority should never have entered into it, he knew even those who voted for his party were largely Eurosceptic, let alone the Ukippers. The reason governments have been so reticent to give an In-Out referendum, rightly or wrongly, is because of precisely this - the fear was it would be a close Out vote. Cameron boxed himself in a corner and then couldn't successfully get out of it. Where do you get 12 from? The last election was won with a big majority ( seats) there is no argument about it. Every pollster, every 'expert' all predicted an outright win for Labour and it didn't happen. Im not even sure how you can think that Cameron went into the election on the basis that he would become part of another coalition? If that had happened again, he would have had to go, he would have failed to secure an overall majority for the second successive time. He would have known about the Eurosceptics, however, he wouldn't have known that so many would have gone against his advice, and we are talking about the public not politicians, nor would he, or for that matter Corbyn and the other Labour 'ins' have even begun to understand that Party Politics meant jack shit to traditional Labour supporters. He had to offer a referendum, if he hadn't he would have been accused of being undemocratic, we are not yet North Korea. Once he made that choice he banked on the public backing him as they did in the election. We shall have to agree to disagree. A majority isn't the number of seats you get, it's the number of seats more than all the other parties you get. 2015 Parliament: 650 seats (326 needed for a majority) Conservatives: 330 seats Labour: 232 seats SNP: 50 seats Lib Dems: 8 seats DUP: 8 seats Sinn Fein: 4 seats (but they don't sit in Parliament) Plaid Cymru: 3 seats SDLP: 3 seats UUP: 2 seats UKIP: 1 seat Greens: 1 seat Independent: 1 seat Speaker: 1 seat Government: 330 Opposition 320 Sinn Fein don't take their seats (4), Speaker is neutral, as are his three deputies (2 Labour, 1 Con), all of which reduces the Opposition numbers by 8 more. 330-308 = Difference of 22 and a Working Majority of 12 (i.e. if 12 Conservatives vote with the opposition, the opposition has a majority and the government lose the vote). For comparison, Mrs T. had majorities of 44 (1979), 144 (1983) and 102 (1987). Blair had majorities of 179 (1997), 167 (2001) and 66 (2005). Major, on the other hand had a majority of 21 and I'm assuming you remember how unstable that government was - 12 is nothing. Almost all the polls in the run-up to the election said the most likely result was a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. That's why there was so much talk about a Labour-SNP pact post-election, it was likely the only way to form a government. Ruling parties rarely gain seats (1983 was the last time before 2015) so a Tory majority was seen as unlikely. You are correct that there would have been pressure on Cameron if they had been in another coalition, and he would naturally have been finished had they lost the election. Instead, he won a majority, the first for the Tories since 1992. The thing nobody seems to understand about 2010 is that while Cameron pledged a referendum, he was in coalition with the Lib Dems, who would never allow a referendum. The only way to get a referendum was to get a Tory majority, if he'd fallen short and done another deal with the Lib Dems, or - as some were suggesting in the event of a fragmented Parliament - a 'Grand Coalition' with Labour, he wouldn't have got the referendum through Parliament as the other parties would vote against it. The fact that we are not North Korea is exactly the reason he couldn't give a referendum - we have a Parliament and you need a majority of the Parliament to pass anything. A Tory majority was the only way he'd get a referendum and once he got it he had to win it. He didn't and that's his cross to bear.

He deleted his career because he assumed, wrongly, that because he won the last election with a clear majority, against all bets and forecasts, he thought that his support to remain was a given. He was well effing wrong. It had nothing to do with the majority (which was only 12). It was that he never intended to get a majority in the first place. Miliband's weakness royally fucked the Tories. Osborne pledged £10 billion of spending cuts, knowing that in a coalition agreement this would get watered down to, say, half that. Cameron promised an In-Out referendum if we gave his party an overall majority, a safe bet because we were heading for another hung parliament and Labour were most likely going to form the next government anyway. Once the Tories got their majority, he had no option but to stand by the £10 billion cuts and that he had no option but to hold his promised referendum. His majority should never have entered into it, he knew even those who voted for his party were largely Eurosceptic, let alone the Ukippers. The reason governments have been so reticent to give an In-Out referendum, rightly or wrongly, is because of precisely this - the fear was it would be a close Out vote. Cameron boxed himself in a corner and then couldn't successfully get out of it.

I also have David Cameron in the Bingo. As does The Dead Cow. My expectation was he'd do a Blair and stand down as MP when he stands down as PM. If it was closer to 2020 then he might see out his term but I don't think he can take 3 years sitting on the backbenches behind Boris. And if there is a General Election this year, the game would indeed become void. As for whether that will happen, there are various ways in which it could. They could somehow come to an agreement over the 2/3rds majority to dissolve Parliament. They could simply repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which introduced the 5 year rule in the first place - that would only need a majority of Parliament. And Labour is more likely to be open to a new election if they've managed to get rid of Corbyn. Not guaranteed if it goes to the members, but apparently his aides aren't sure that as leader he automatically qualifies for the ballot, and chances are Labour MPs simply wouldn't nominate him if not.

Yeah, and Boris' shameless careerism has pissed off quite a few rank and file Tories, so she might just about be the sensible option. She's been really smart about it. She's been as Eurosceptic as it's possible to be while staying on the Remain side, while not pissing Remainers off by voting Leave. Plus with Boris nakedly making a play for the leadership by leading the Leave campaign, as you say, he risks Heseltine-itis. And a new Iron Lady for the post-Brexit era will appeal to many nostalgic for the days of Tebbit and Parkinson. Positioned herself as the perfect unifier. I still think Boris will get it, but if they do have doubts, she's a ready-made alternative.

I not sure being satisfied that the sky hasn't fallen down is necessarily the standard we were setting for ourselves... What standard were we setting for ourselves then? The standard of being in the best position going forward as a nation, which 90% of the perceived wisdom said was inside the EU. In other news, Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed a second Independence referendum is "on the table" as the terms under which the last referendum took place have changed significantly. Hard to argue with her. Would that be the same 90% of wise owls who didn't see the economic meltdown? Maybe it was the ones who caused it? Look, Europe is fucked, us leaving wont change that, we will still trade with Europe and Europe will still trade with us. If we were going to listen to informed opinion then, perhaps, the words of the German head of Industries, Marcus Kerbel, would have been the thing to do. Im sure his counterparts across the EU share his view, why wouldn't they? They have over 5 million employees that are dependant on the continuation of freely trading with us. The EU are a busted flush, they wont be dictating how we all move forwards on trade deals, it will be the industrial giants of main land Europe, their employees and their unions who will want to ensure that the status quo remains. Seems Michael Gove was right. We really have 'had enough of experts'. If everything's so rosy on the outside then what possible reason do Cameron, Osborne and co. have to be in favour of it? In the Brexit scenario they have more money, more power and more trade than if we're in the EU. Sounds like a no-brainer. But there was a broad consensus in favour of staying from the so-called 'elites'. Kerbel has said that he wants the status quo to remain in place. That would have been easy with a Remain vote. With a Leave vote, it's not his decision to make, it's up to his Chancellor, and several other figures across the EU to decide. Oh, and of course they could give us a package which BoJo decides isn't good enough and rejects it anyway. This idea that somehow we just leave and do what we like is wonderful, but I'm guessing not that simple. But what do I know, I just listened to the experts.

I not sure being satisfied that the sky hasn't fallen down is necessarily the standard we were setting for ourselves... What standard were we setting for ourselves then? The standard of being in the best position going forward as a nation, which 90% of the perceived wisdom said was inside the EU. In other news, Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed a second Independence referendum is "on the table" as the terms under which the last referendum took place have changed significantly. Hard to argue with her.

Your odds are probably close to 50-50 now. Can't see it being anyone other than her or Boris.

I not sure being satisfied that the sky hasn't fallen down is necessarily the standard we were setting for ourselves...

I'm not celebrating until I know who's replacing him. 2010 Election Day was pretty big due to all the uncertainty. But in terms of genuine seismic change, I can't think of anything comparable. Even the decision to go in wasn't this enormous. As for who's replacing him, it's impossible to look past Boris. This is exactly what he planned when he joined the Out camp.

Me too. I thought in the end common sense would prevail narrowly. Instead we narrowly chose chaos instead.

Any chance you could take 44% of the population of England with you..?

I remember Cameron coming out to Downing Street the morning after the Scottish Referendum and thinking 'You jammy bastard'. Not so jammy this time...

I hope you like your politics North of the Border. Talk of a second General Election once Boris inevitably wins the leadership contest. So that will just be: Independence Referendum (I) - September 2014 General Election - May 2015 Scottish Election - May 2016 EU Referendum - June 2016 General Election - October 2016? Independence Referendum (II) - September 2017?

Somewhere, they've started work on a statue of Farage.

Newcastle nowhere near high enough for Remain. It's gonna be an Out.