The Old Crem

It will 99% be a white man who is the dem nominee in 2028. Probably Josh Shapiro or Andy Beshar. It be the rightest dem candidate for many decades.

Will he make it alive till the end of his term in 2029? When he will be 82 and a half. Or will death, natural or man made,, finish him off?

Trump wins. Dems are going to go pretty right wing in 2028 to have any chance of winning again. Just look at the massive Hispanic and black men backlash to the Dems on social and immigration policy. Suspect they will back his immigration policy and plenty of other things. Obviously that might not work.

‘Well, the Selzer poll looks like it might have been among the worst of the cycle. Harris is likely to lose Iowa by 8-10 at this point. Very different from the D+3 result she had.’ The reaction to that reminded me of the Guardian’s the day polls turned headline from 2015.

north Carolina called for Trump. Georgia soon to follow. All relies on the rust belt and things don’t look great there for Harris.

NYT needle is lean Trump. I’ve seen that story before in 2016. Very much Deja Vu tonight.

https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1853968169863381202?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Very early but if the current fully-counted results are replicated elsewhere it would point to a Trump sweep of the swing states. These are only counties from 5 states though, perhaps Harris will overperform in the Blue Wall (as she has in lots of polls)

CNN saying Harris campaign is worried about North Carolina and Georgia.

I will go to be when the result looks fairly clear. That might be quite soon.

Example being Trump has surely flipped Miami Dade county that Clinton won very very easily on 2016.

CNN Exit poll figures of Georgia horrific for Harris and outstanding for Trump. Big swing to Trumo among independents and black men.

Harris wins Vermont. Trump wins Kentucky. Trump wins Indiana .

It seems based on the early votes from Indiana that it could be a close one like 2020. My guess is through it will be a battle between various shifts in the swing states - demographics that are shifting democrat or republican that will decide it. To be that favours Trump because of his gains with some non white groups vs possible Harris gains.

‘CNN exit poll has bad numbers for Harris on state of country and Biden approval. But not determinative. We need to wait for demographic data’ ‘One thing clear to me from the exit poll. If Republicans had selected any other candidate but Trump, and run a classical issues based campaign, this election wouldn’t have been close.’ ‘CNN exit poll numbers also bad for Harris on the economy’. ‘The Democracy issue is good news for Harris. But the salience of the economy isn’t. Nor is abortion at 14%, given that’s supposed to be her major driver.’ ‘national preliminary exits on MSNBC, if Trump is elected, how would you feel? excited/optimistic: 48% scared/concerned: 50% who do you trust more to handle abortion? Harris: 51% Trump: 44% who do you trust more to handle crime? Trump: 50% Harris: 48%’ Trump’s winning based on those polls.

‘Disclaimer: no useful information comes out on election day, turnout reports are unreliable and not useful, no-one knows anything. But: Democrats I know all suddenly seem to think they’ve either won comfortably or by a landslide and it’s REALLY setting off 2016 vibes for me. People who 2-3 days ago wouldn’t be drawn beyond “it’s going to be VERY close” are wondering whether it’ll be 300+ electoral college votes. The confidence is just sending my gut into thinking it’s 2016 all over again. (Which isn’t rational or predictive ofc). One serious point aside from the jitters would be: a 50+ EC win for Harris wouldn’t even be a polling miss. 50-100 would only be a small one. How many Trump voters would believe that result? It could be quite dangerous in the short-term if that is the result…‘ ‘As of noon, this is where the following New York boroughs were as a % of their 2020 turnout Staten Island 60% Manhattan 58% Brooklyn 57% Queens 50% Bronx 42% NY doesn't matter in the end, but MAGA Staten Island outvoting Manhattan and turnout collapse in the Bronx is notable.’

It’s hard to tell. ‘So stepping back, one current takeaway from turnout numbers. The polls had Trump up comfortably in Florida. He’s winning very well at the moment. Nevada was very tight in the polls. And it’s looking tight. Arizona was leaning Trump in the polls. It looks like he’s got Arizona. Georgia was Trump, but relatively narrowly. Dems are happy, but not quite breaking out the champagne. Huge caveats. Could be all sorts going on below those figures. But we’re not currently seeing anything that shows a major poll miss on the scale Selzer was implying.’ ‘Nevada turnout is now looking better for Trump’

‘More Badenoch appointments Gagan Mohindra is the Shadow Deputy Chief Whip Mark Francois is the Shadow Minister of State for Defence Kieran Mullan is the Shadow Minister of State for Justice (Mohindra backed Cleverly, Francois backed Jenrick, Mullan backed Badenoch)’ Francois is a sign of the how few Tory MP’s they are.

Trump being said to be looking good on the turnout figures from Florida and Arizona but Nevada is still looking very close and hard to call.

Cancels her engagements this week due to Chest infection. https://news.sky.com/story/queen-camilla-withdraws-from-engagements-after-becoming-unwell-with-chest-infection-13248625

‘First vote on Election Day - in Dixville Notch, NH - ends in a tie: 3 for Trump, 3 for Harris. Joe Biden won in 2020, Clinton in 2016’ A sign that Trump will win. ‘Reminder: in 2020, Trump trailed in the final 538 polling average by 8.4 pts, had a 10% chance in their model and still came within 42,918 votes across AZ, GA & WI of winning reelection. Today, Trump trails by just 1.0 pt and has a 50% chance, per @NateSilver538's final model.’ A sign that Trump could win big.

Appointed Shdow secretary state for Scotland so Badenoch doesn’t think he will be a damaging story anytime soon.

‘Here’s the full Badenoch shadow cabinet. Tom Tugendhat, like James Cleverly, is another leadership contender heading to the backbenches ·Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer: Mel Stride MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs: Dame Priti Patel MP ·Shadow Home Secretary: Chris Philp MP ·Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland: Alex Burghart MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Defence: James Cartlidge MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Justice: Robert Jenrick MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Education: Laura Trott MP ·Shadow Health and Social Care Secretary: Ed Argar MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities: Kevin Hollinrake MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Victoria Atkins MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Trade: Andrew Griffith MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero and Shadow Minister for Equalities: Claire Coutinho MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions: Helen Whately MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Transport: Gareth Bacon MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport: Stuart Andrew MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology: Alan Mak MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Minister of State for Energy and Net Zero: Andrew Bowie MP ·Shadow Secretary of State for Wales and Shadow Minister for Women: Mims Davies MP ·Opposition Chief Whip (Commons): Dame Rebecca Harris MP ·Shadow Leader of the House of Commons: Jesse Norman MP ·Shadow Leader of the House of Lords: Lord True ·Co-Chairmen of the Party: Nigel Huddleston MP & Lord Johnson ·Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Richard Fuller MP Also attending: •Parliamentary Private Secretary: Julia Lopez MP’

Even then she would still have to overcome the same obstacles which meant she didn’t run this time.

‘Why both parties believe they’ve going to win: Dems: -Selzer/heartland polling/WA primary->Blue Wall -Dobbs/women -final NYT/Siena polls (mostly) -a belief that they have the late momentum GOP: -early voting data -betting markets -national polls tightening -a belief that there will be another polling error’

Nevada Independent’s @RalstonReports predicts a Harris squeaker. Thats a boost for Harris as he is highly respected.