Evil Grimace

For those of the forum who like myself (briefly) considered him for next year and wondered if he'd QO, the Gurnard belts out the answer: Stephen Gould obituary

Getting the September estimate in early as the obits have been coming in in an orderly fashion. I figured a table will summarize how the recent estimate looks compared to previous ones. Month Hits Predicted Total September 24 299 August 26 296 July 24 292 Jan-June 161 290 Again it has crept up slightly (full details below). For those of you wondering if 300 is possible, read on. As of writing on 4 October, there are 236 hits total. At the end of September there were 235. The record is 280 from 2022. With three months left (88 days as of 4 October), even with 20 hits/month (20/31 = 0.65 monthly rate; estimated), or 60/88 (0.68 hits/day) that is well below the monthly rate of any month so far this year. And 235 +60 = 295. So yes, I'm confident that a new record will be set.

Two recent interviews by Billy Connolly. In summary: he enjoyed lockdowns at home with his wife and dogs, he's had some serious falls, need to get a lift everywhere and his wife is his full time carer. Billy Connolly had 'serious falls' after balance issues, says wife And a back and forth interview conducted by his wife: Billy Connolly’s most intimate interview yet (by his wife) The picture below is from the second interview, picture dated September 2023 in Key West, Florida.

With today's consistory, the number of cardinal electors is now 137 - a record. It will fall to 136 tomorrow (1 October) when Cardinal Patrick D'Rozairo turns 80. By the end of the year, there will be 132 cardinal electors and without any deaths of cardinals below the age of 80, it will take until at least 24 December 2024 when Cardinal Oswald Gracias turns 80 (the unknown birthday of Cardinal John Njue given as simply '1944' means he will certainly be 80 by the end of 2024). Pope Francis is making his mark on the College for the next 15 months without a doubt. Why this is notable is that the total of 137 surpasses the previous records set by JPII in 2001 and 2003 and when with his 'superconsistories' he increased the number of cardinal electors to 135 in 2001 and again in 2003 from 109 to 135. At the time, he stated he was setting aside the 120 limit. Given JPII's poor health at the time of these record numbers, Pope Francis' new record of 137, is his health going to see him make another consistory in 2025?

August hits have again increased the total number of hits to 296. End of July was 292, end of June was 290. August had 25 hits, plus one found behind the sofa for a final August total of 211. As of writing on 22 September, there are 224 hits total. A updated estimate puts the September final estimate at 232, shifted higher than the June (225) or July (228) estimates. Currently, the monthly hit rate had a big uptick from July (0.774) to August at 0.839.The yearly rate is well above 0.8, and matched a previous estimate, making me recheck my work! Still using the base rates that might be conservative, but again that error is reduced with each monthly update.

QO for Roger Whittaker Roger Whittaker: Durham Town folk singer dies at 87

*cough* Pope Benedict XVI, *cough, cough* Barbara Walters...

@Death Impends, wonderful write ups as always! Regarding US game show hosts, there is at least one remaining from Barker's era - Peter Marshall (dob 30 March 1926) of 'Hollywood Squares' fame. He's been a DDP mainstay since 2018, thanks to theme teams. He had a close brush with COVID in early 2021.

September 2 Twelfth hit: Mohamed Al-Fayed Well, it didn't take long for the 'no 11th hit without a 12th' rule of thumb to come into play. With twelve hits now, this moves the game into the range of 12-22 hits where the bonuses and penalties are given out like candy and snatched away from the babes too. A quick comment on the accounting to keep track of scores is in order then. At the start, everyone was given the penalty of -2 for not hitting a joker and -2 for being out by more than five hits. 22 jokers have been hit so many have had this penalty removed. But the hits range is -2 (starting default), then as the hits occur: +2 (5 or less out), +2 (within 1), +4 (exact match), -4 (not matching), -2 (more than 1 away), -2 (more than 5 away). The game has reached a player who is at the exact match and those at 12-17 predicted hits are at one or more penalties removed/bonus. This has been a hit for 7 punters (7 hits, 0 joker). A few with Third hit bonuses (4 punters) too. Total hits: 7 Teams with hit: 7 Punters: chilean way, ThereWillBeDeaths7, Great Uncle Bulgaria, DoorSlammer, The Duke of Deadinburgh, The Old Crem, Annami Again, DoorSlammer gets a hit, with an impressive 10/12 hit rate. Teams with joker: 0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus First round (3 hits): Great Uncle Bulgaria Second round (6 hits): ThereWillBeDeaths7, The Old Crem, Annami Within 5 predicted hits: Etushispushingupdaisies, tracy, The Duke of Deadinburgh (17 predicted hits) Within 1 predicted hit: diego, Great Uncle Bulgaria (13 predicted hits) Exact hit match: Grimgrass (12 predicted hits) As mentioned above, the range of 12-22 hits will mean constant changes to the rankings based on hits alone. Grimgrass wides the lead in first place, with Diego in second and Joltin Joe in third. Tied at fourth are gcreptile, wannamaker, DoorSlammer and Great Uncle Bulgaria. Another hit will change the ranks again, as more bonuses come into play... Updated Score Al-Fayed Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (17 predicted) Within 1 hit (13 predicted) Exact match (12 predicted) Grimgrass 0 4 diego -3 2 Joltin Joe -5 gcreptile -6 wannamaker -6 DoorSlammer -6 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -6 1 1 2 LizLemon -8 Bibliogryphon -8 Sean -9 Newjack -9 Etushispushingupdaisies -9 2 Summer in Transylvania -10 Joey Russ -10 Book -10 tracy -10 2 YoungWillz -11 Annami -11 1 1 TQR -12 Torva Messor -12 theoldlady -12 The Old Crem -12 1 1 Funeralopolis -13 Hell -13 Dying Probably -13 The Duke of Deadinburgh -13 1 2 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -14 1 1 The Daredevil -16 WinterCake -17 chilean way -19 1

I found this graphic summarizes just how rough 2023 has been, and it is only August. Three have been DDP hits (Superstar, Iron Sheik, Funk) for the respective wrestler theme teams.

August 26 Eleventh hit: Bob Barker The lowest of the 'Top Tier' picks has been a hit for 21 punters (20 hits, 1 joker). The 11th hit is a bonzana of points, with Third hit bonuses (9 punters benefit) and those at 16 hits moving out of the penalty. The lone player on 12 hits moves into bonus territory too. Total hits: 21 Teams with hit: 20 Punters: Joltin Joe, Dying Probably, chilean way, ThereWillBeDeaths7, wannamaker, Funeralopolis, Etushispushingupdaisies, tracy, YoungWillz, TQR, Great Uncle Bulgaria, DoorSlammer, Book, The Duke of Deadinburgh, Bibliogryphon, WinterCake, Grimgrass, Torva Messor, The Old Crem, Hell Teams with joker: 1 Punters: Annami Third hit bonus First round (3 hits): chilean way, The Duke of Deadinburgh, Grimgrass Second round (6 hits): Joltin Joe, Dying Probably, wannamaker, tracy, Bibliogryphon Third round (9 hits): DoorSlammer Realize how impressive this is. 5 punters have got 6/11 hits right, better than 50% hit rate. DoorSlammer has 9/11 and the two missed were a Designated Survivor (Parkinson) that no one hit and a Unique (Turner) called by only one punter. And yes, the correct calls are paying off. Within 5 predicted hits: theoldlady, gcreptile, wannamaker, LizLemon, Newjack (16 predicted hits) Within 1 predicted hit: Grimgrass (12 predicted hits) Yup, it starting to get complex at 11 hits - and this will only increase until 17 hits when all players are in the bonus and penalty removal ranges. A big hit and big changes in the rankings as things start to break up. We have a new first place with Grimgrass, with Diego and Joltin Joe tied for second place. Tied at third are gcreptile and wannamaker. In fourth is DoorSlammer. But don't get comfortable, the next hit will undoubtly shake things up. As has already been said by @msc 'no 11th hit without a 12th'. Updated Score Barker Joker Hit Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (16 predicted) Within 1 hit (12 predicted) Grimgrass -4 1 1 2 diego -5 Joltin Joe -5 1 1 gcreptile -6 2 wannamaker -6 1 1 2 DoorSlammer -7 1 1 LizLemon -8 2 Bibliogryphon -8 1 1 Sean -9 Newjack -9 2 Summer in Transylvania -10 Joey Russ -10 Book -10 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -10 1 Etushispushingupdaisies -11 1 YoungWillz -11 1 TQR -12 1 Torva Messor -12 1 theoldlady -12 2 tracy -12 1 1 Funeralopolis -13 1 Hell -13 1 Dying Probably -13 1 1 Annami -13 4 The Old Crem -14 1 The Daredevil -16 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -16 1 The Duke of Deadinburgh -16 1 1 WinterCake -17 1 chilean way -20 1 1

Let me introduce you to his cartoon doppelganger, Simon Bar Sinister from 'Underdog'.

By chance I won a bottle of Theakstons Old Peculier in a raffle a few weeks ago. It was a nice amber ale, tasting faintly of choclate to me (website claims it is cherry and banana). Enjoyed it after work and would certainly try it again, if I could find it!

And it continues....Jonnie Irwin inundated with support as he beams with joy in update from 'best' few days away

It certainly seems that the DDP is on track for a record year. The revised estimate is now 292 as of the end of July. It was 290 at the end of June. July had 22 hits, plus obits for the ISIS leader and Brewer, so a total of 24 added to the June total of 161. As of writing on 19 August, there are 200 hits total. A updated estimate from July is 207 by end of August, with the older June estimate at 204. Currently, the monthly hit rate is still greater than 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month), and the yearly rate is well above 0.8. It is entirely possible that using these base rates that the final totals are being underestimated, but that error will be reduced with each monthly update.

@time has it here. And this thread has the best tag line, so kudos @Paul Bearer. Everytime I read it, the voice and intonation is Parkinson's.

August 17 Tenth hit: Michael Parkinson A 'designated survivor' has fallen as the tenth hit. Despite not being picked by anyone, it does move several players who had 15 hits, out of that penalty. A quick update and a hit that brings the game close to the cusp of penalties being removed for those at 16 (5 players) and brings those at 12 (1 player) into bonus range. Total hits: 0 Teams with hit: 0 Punters: N/A Teams with joker: 0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus: N/A Within 5 predicted hits: Joltin Joe, YoungWillz, Bibliogryphon, Sean (15 predicted hits) As mentioned above it gets complex at 11 hits - either for those who predicted 16 hits and the fact that the low predictors will be within 1 hit. All in all, a straightforward update, with 4 punters moving up the ranks. Joltin Joe jousts into second, Sean joins in a comfortable fourth and Bibliogryphon and YoungWillz edge up the ranks. Diego maintains first place, but 10 players - a third of those in play - are within 5 points of first. Updated Score Parkinson Within 5 hits (15 predicted) diego -5 Joltin Joe -7 2 Grimgrass -8 gcreptile -8 DoorSlammer -9 Sean -9 2 Summer in Transylvania -10 wannamaker -10 LizLemon -10 Joey Russ -10 Bibliogryphon -10 2 Book -11 Newjack -11 Great Uncle Bulgaria -11 Etushispushingupdaisies -12 YoungWillz -12 2 TQR -13 Torva Messor -13 theoldlady -14 Funeralopolis -14 Hell -14 tracy -14 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 The Daredevil -16 Annami -17 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -17 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 WinterCake -18 chilean way -22

Rob Burrow's at a brewery that has made a new beer, 'Burrow's Blonde' to support his charities from the proceeds of its sale. New picture dated 13 August. Brewery to help Rob Burrow in Motor Neurone Disease battle

From the article: "Irwin is reportedly undergoing traditional cancer-blocking drugs as well as trialling alternative therapies including infusions of vitamin C, a cocktail of daily vitamins, a strict diet and treatment in an oxygen chamber." With the vitamin C and cocktail of daily vitamins he's embracing the medically unproven idea that megadoses of vitamin C can fight cancer. I've yet to see any peer reviewed or meta analysis that shows it is effective in fighting cancer. The legacy of medical hacks like Irwin Stone who had the support of Nobel laureate Linus Pauling (the originator of megadoses of vitamin C) does little else but offer false hope and cold comfort. The cocktail of vitamins has another issue of the fat versus water soluble vitamins. He's already weakened by cancer, so if in excess, the fat soluble vitamins could strain his organs, especially his liver and kidneys leading to hypertension, raise his calcium blood levels and risk heart failure. I will say this, he's making some expensive urine.

Hot off the internet! Sixto Rodriguez: Searching for Sugar Man singer dies aged 81

Another bold prediction: 2023 will be the first time in Drop 40 history to have the top 5 picks all be hits. Taking into account the recent updates on James Whale (not doing his show), Jimmy Carter (hospice updates) and Jonnie Irwin (all moments sold to tabloids), with under five months left, and given their conditions, it seems probable. I see Carter as the likely stumbling block. I don't think a sweep of the top 10 is possible, thanks to #6 being Frank Field. Only 2020 with 17 D40 hits came close with 7 of the top 10 as hits. Only three years have had 3 of the top 5 as hits: 2020, 2019 and 2013. And I think it is time for 2023 to outclass them.

Correction to the scores made for Kundera, as two players were not awarded points. I guess I forgot to 'czech' my work. That error carried over into Bennett's update, so it has been fixed too. Rainy afternoons are good for pouring over spreadsheets it seems.

July 22 - updated and edited 31 July Ninth hit: Tony Bennett A low end hit that still gives a lot of movement in the rankings. 11 punters get the hit, with one joker. Total hits: 11 Teams with hit:10 Punters: Joltin Joe, gcreptile, The Daredevil, LizLemon, tracy, TQR, Summer in Transylvania, DoorSlammer, Bibliogryphon, Torva Messor Teams with joker: 1 Punters: Etushispushingupdaisies One of the few lone jokers is hit. With the joker clearance of Sakamoto (9) and Harris (11), this makes 21/30 (70%) jokers cashed out. For this joker hit, Etushispushingupdaisies advances up nine places in the rankings, no small feat. Third hit bonus: gcreptile, The Daredevil Two more players have made their sixth hit, and garnered another third hit bonus. With the last crop to do so with Kundera (8th hit) and two more with Bennett (9th hit), getting 6/8 or 6/9 is a high rate of success. Within 5 predicted hits: Joey Russ (14 predicted hits) It's gonna get messy at 10 hits - either for those who predicted 15 hits and the fact that the low predictors will be within 2 hits. A fair bit of movement across the board, with diego maintaining the first place lead. Second, third place and fourth places all rather crowded. Still anyone's game. Updated Score Bennett Joker Hit Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (14 predicted) diego -5 Grimgrass -8 gcreptile -8 1 1 Joltin Joe -9 1 DoorSlammer -9 1 wannamaker -10 Book -10 LizLemon -10 1 Joey Russ -10 2 Sean -11 Newjack -11 Great Uncle Bulgaria -11 Summer in Transylvania -11 1 Bibliogryphon -12 1 Etushispushingupdaisies -12 4 Hell -13 TQR -13 1 Torva Messor -13 1 theoldlady -14 YoungWillz -14 Funeralopolis -14 tracy -14 1 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 The Daredevil -16 1 1 Annami -17 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -17 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 WinterCake -18 chilean way -22

Update 13 July Eighth hit: Milan Kundera Another middle of the road hit. 16 punters get the hit, with no jokers. Total hits: 16 Teams with hit:16 Punters: Joltin Joe, gcreptile, The Daredevil, chilean way, ThereWillBeDeaths7, wannamaker, LizLemon, Funeralopolis, Etushispushingupdaisies, tracy, Summer in Transylvania, DoorSlammer, Book, Newjack, Hell, diego Teams with joker: 0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus: LizLemon, Etushispushingupdaisies, Summer in Transylvania, Book, Hell Several of these players have made their sixth hit (LizLemon, Summer in Transylvania, Book, Hell) and garnered another third hit bonus. Within 5 predicted hits: Great Uncle Bulgaria, diego Movement across the board, with +3 for diego helping to widen to a first place lead. Third place and fourth places both crowded. Updated Score Kundera Third Hit Bonus Within 5 hits (13 predicted) diego -5 1 2 Grimgrass -8 gcreptile -10 1 Joltin Joe -10 1 wannamaker -10 1 DoorSlammer -10 1 Book -10 1 1 Sean -11 Newjack -11 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -11 2 LizLemon -11 1 1 Joey Russ -12 Summer in Transylvania -12 1 1 Bibliogryphon -13 Hell -13 1 1 theoldlady -14 YoungWillz -14 TQR -14 Torva Messor -14 Funeralopolis -14 1 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 tracy -15 1 Etushispushingupdaisies -16 1 1 Annami -17 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -17 1 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 WinterCake -18 The Daredevil -18 1 chilean way -22 1

Hungerford got at least two obits: BBC and Telegraph