Evil Grimace

Pope Francis is holding that consistory on 30 September, under two weeks from when the number of cardinals under 80 has just dropped to 119 on 17 September. With 18 added, that swells the number of cardinal electors to 137. By the end of the year 5 cardinals will have turned 80 (one turns 80 on the 1 October; a Francis created one) and by the end of April 2024, another 5 cardinals will be over 80. That's still 127. It will take until the end of 2024 for that number to drop below/to 120, so he's really putting his stamp on the College and the cardinal electors. Of the cardinals that will be 80 by the end of 2024, 8 were created by Francis, 9 were created by Benedict XVI and 3 were created by John Paul II. Of course, this doesn't account for any deaths. Could this be his last consistory? And is it finally time for him to ascend to the lofty ranks for the DL?

Clearly there to do some window shopping!

TL;DR summary: if the monthly hit rate is greater than or equals 0.7 hits/day (21 hits/month), or the yearly rate stays above 0.8 we are in for a record year. Yearly rate = total hits on the day/day of year out of 365. For example, 30 June hits were 161 and 30 June is day 181 of 365. So 161/181 = 0.890. I'm blaming both @YoungWillz and @Gooseberry Crumble for giving me ideas. It is just over half the year and despite @Gooseberry Crumble lamenting missed picks, this year has had a great first half. And I'll make a prediction - it will be a record setting year with 290 hits. As I write on 5 July, there are 164 hits. As of 30 June at 161 hits, it is the best performing year so far compared to 2020, 2021 and 2022. I've used these years as the spread of total hits is low: 2020 (278), 2021 (275), 2022 (280). Kudos for precision deadpoolers. First off, why such a good tally end of June? Two reasons - no May or June slump in hits that happened every year 2020-2022. And this is despite having the worst 31 January tally in 2023 vs 2020-2022. I've hidden the maths below so as not to trigger the forum users. I'm confident in this prediction. And I'll try to update it as the results come in. Always happy to hear any comments, suggestions, why you hated your maths teacher, etc. Edit: If you really want a bumper year, find QOs for the LotL; I suspect that the low number of them is partly a reason for the success. Also, why call out @YoungWillz? The knack of finding QOs weeks and months later made me realize that my initial counts were inaccurate, b/c ofc @YoungWillz had turned it up and it was put in its correct date. Dedication to the cause.

The Economist is listed as a QO source, so this should fittingly qualify as such for Economics laureate Harry Markowitz: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/26/americans-love-american-stocks-they-should-look-overseas It mentions the day of his death (22 June) in the article before the rest is blocked out.

Another update on Rob Burrow. At a Father's Day fun run with his children who push him over the finish line. He's briefly at the beginning of the video, but not responsive to cheers, etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=863YRXNrtXw BBC article gives minor details of the event too.

I'm inclided to agree with this for several reasons: 1) Kaczynski was moved in Dec 2021 to the medical facility 2) his letter to a penpal in early 2022 (written Jan/Feb?) states he had two years at most with his terminal cancer; still unknown type of cancer 3) his death in June 2023 is 19 months after he was moved 4) his father commited suicide by gunshot in October 1990, having been diagnosed with terminal lung cancer in 1990 5) he wrote about his father's suicide in his 2016 book 'Like father, like son' seems to fit. I've yet to see point #4 mentioned in any obits or references to the Unabomber's reported suicide.

Name Points 1 Jan Birthday Age (Points @ BDay) Teams Jokers Jonnie Irwin 10 18 Nov 1973 50(9) 146 63 Henry Kissinger 5 27 May 1923 100(4) 86 5 Yoko Ono 6 18 Feb 1933 90(5) 48 0 Willie Nelson 6 29 April 1933 90(5) 30 1 Glynis Johns 5 5 Oct 1923 100(4) 28 3 Analysis – as of 27 May 2023 These are the D40 picks that will cross a threshold in age that leads to a point loss by moving into a lower point bracket. It is lower than the past two years (2022 had 6, 2021 had 9). It is a tight race and anyone’s game now. As every point counts, some players may regret their choices or pay attention to birth years in the future. Of course, the points for being at D40 pick are not impacted, just the base points from the pick’s age. They could still surprise with a party pooper bonus (cough, Kissinger, cough). I started writing back in March, but that reminded me today to finish it up.

I'd say the Committee have excellent judgement and/or extremely lucky - they've done this for three picks this year so far. Musharraf - 2004, 2020, 2023 Lawson - 2012, 2023 (impressive!) Turner - 2019, 2023 If that pattern holds then, Nolan - 2018, 2021, 2023(?) Marcos - 2020, 2021, 2023(?) Khamenei - 2011, 2021, 2023(?) They've managed it before too, Jerry Lee Lewis 2022, last picked 1993 (!!!!) John Edrich 2020, last picked 2011, 2010 Charles Aznavour 2018, last 2014, 1990 And if you are thinking ahead to 2024... Jake 'The Snake' Roberts, last picked in 2015.

Update 25 May Seventh hit: Tina Turner Now it is a hit that benefits the least number of players, only 2. This is probably the quickest update to the scores. From now until 27 hits (!!) the penalty range and bonuses for correct number of hits come into play. Should any designated survivors be a hit, they still add to the total number of hits, and any hit will affect multiple players. Total hits: 1 Teams with hit:1 Punter: The Old Crem Teams with joker:0 Punters: 0 Unique hits:1 Punter: The Old Crem The first unique of the game is claimed by The Old Crem. Third hit bonus: N/A And consecutive hits have stopped.... Within 5 predicted hits: Grimgrass This means the -2 penalty is removed, as it was applied to all players at the start. Many more players will begin to have this removed, as the predicted number of hits spans 12 to 22, with all numbers inclusive chosen at least once. Least amount of movement on the board to date, but significant to two punters as The Old Crem moves up two places and Grimgrass now tied for first place with diego. Updated Score Turner Unique Within 5 hits (12 predicted) diego -8 Grimgrass -8 2 gcreptile -11 Joltin Joe -11 wannamaker -11 Sean -11 DoorSlammer -11 Joey Russ -12 Book -12 Newjack -12 Great Uncle Bulgaria -13 Bibliogryphon -13 LizLemon -13 Summer in Transylvania -14 theoldlady -14 YoungWillz -14 TQR -14 Torva Messor -14 Funeralopolis -15 Hell -15 Dying Probably -15 The Old Crem -15 1 1 tracy -16 Annami -17 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 Etushispushingupdaisies -18 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -18 WinterCake -18 The Daredevil -19 chilean way -23

Update "23 May" Sixth hit: Rolf Harris As I was compling the stats, Harris' date of dead was given as 10 May. I'm leaving my update date in quotes and giving full credit to @The Old Crem for predicting that his death announcement would be delayed. The speculation in his thread was amusing. Well, this is the big one. 28/30 punters picked him, he was the bookie's favourite, so those 28 get a minimum of 2 points for the hit and bookie bonus. Six players got maximum points at 6 points, many at 5 points for their joker and bookie bonus. It also means a potential penalty is now removed now that the bookie's bonus has been awarded. Total hits: 28 Teams with hit:17 Punters: Joltin Joe, theoldlady, gcreptile, The Daredevil, ThereWillBeDeaths7, LizLemon, Funeralopolis, Etushispushingupdaisies, Joey Russ, tracy, YoungWillz, Summer in Transylvania, Book, The Duke of Deadinburgh, Bibliogryphon, Annami, diego Teams with joker:11 Punters: Dying Probably, wannamaker, TQR, DoorSlammer, WinterCake, Newjack, Grimgrass, Torva Messor, The Old Crem, Sean, Hell With this hit, now 20/30, so two-thirds of the jokers are accounted for. Most jokers remaining are only held by one punter, so major shakeups won't happen anymore. Third hit bonus: Joltin Joe, ThereWillBeDeaths7, Funeralopolis, tracy, YoungWillz, TQR, DoorSlammer, Newjack, Torva Messor, The Old Crem, Sean With this 23/30 players have earned the 3rd hit bonus. This seems a low statistical probability, as it is only 6 hits. Impressive work punters! Sixth (consecutive) hit: DoorSlammer (joker as well!) DoorSlammer makes six hits in a row also clearing the joker penalty and garnering a second 3 hit bonus. A warm welcome to WinterCake who has come in from the cold. All players now have at least one hit. Lots of movement on the board, with +6 or +5 moving many people up the ranks. Third place is crowded with 5 punters, but diego holds the lead, with Grimgrass emerging from the long grass... Updated Score Harris Joker Hit Bookie's Fav Third Hit Bonus diego -8 1 1 Grimgrass -10 4 1 gcreptile -11 1 1 Joltin Joe -11 1 1 1 wannamaker -11 4 1 Sean -11 4 1 1 DoorSlammer -11 4 1 1 Joey Russ -12 1 1 Book -12 1 1 Newjack -12 4 1 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -13 Bibliogryphon -13 1 1 LizLemon -13 1 1 Summer in Transylvania -14 1 1 theoldlady -14 1 1 YoungWillz -14 1 1 1 TQR -14 4 1 1 Torva Messor -14 4 1 1 Funeralopolis -15 1 1 1 Hell -15 4 1 Dying Probably -15 4 1 tracy -16 1 1 1 Annami -17 1 1 The Old Crem -17 4 1 1 The Duke of Deadinburgh -18 1 1 Etushispushingupdaisies -18 1 1 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -18 1 1 1 WinterCake -18 4 1 The Daredevil -19 1 1 chilean way -23

Thanks @YoungWillz! This has to be the longest time for a former pick to make The List of the Missed. A quick glance shows other possibilities, but now I'm curious to figure it out...

@MrWonderful Don't, we all have misses and regrets. As @drol wrote in obit for the Immortals thread, he was a running joke for the growing list of ailments and requests for donations. As a whole, the DL and DDP community caught on quickly - the constant 'cry wolf' basically made few pay attention. Look at the numbers for the teams that picked him in the DDP. They spiked early on after he made his debut in 2011 and coincide with his medical issues. I would have thought he had a earlier appearance than 2011 given his health, but no. And he was never picked enough to make the D40. Rarely jokered. Last made double digits in 2015.

11 May - Ranking the Picks I've had this in the back of my mind for a while. It started with the of Carter's hospice choice and the fact no one jokered him. What follows is my (subjective) thoughts on picks, with a look at the picks for overlapping picks, uniques, jokers. Number of Picks and Historical DL Hits I've taken the past 11 years of DL stats for two reasons. First, all are double digit scores. Second, with 11 data sets, a few stat tests show the average, median, mean, outliers, etc. And the Committee of 2010 isn't the same of 2023 for many reasons - experience, (de)composition, and so forth. Year Hits 2022 14 2021 12 2020 20 2019 13 2018 12 2017 17 2016 12 2015 14 2014 10 2013 13 2012 12 Average ~14 The take home message? Those of you who banked on 12 - 17 hits, I'm certain one of you will be the winner. And the current number of hits will soon make a difference. As I write, there are 5. At 7, the bonus range will begin to be applied for anyone who picked 12 hits. With a range of 12-22 hits at 17, everyone has some stage of the bonuses. The next two hits, especially if they are on your roster, will begin to separate the players before the hit bonus ranges come into play. Onto the picks themselves. The Big One # picks # jokers Rolf Harris 28 11 The most picks (tie w/Starmer-Smith), the most jokers (11/30, just over a third) - he's the bookie's favourite. The fact he's so widely picked means nearly everyone benefits, some more than others with the bookie's bonus. If he isn't a hit, those who jokered Sakamoto will probably have the winner in their ranks. Top Tier # picks # jokers Nigel Starmer-Smith 28 2 Jimmy Carter 27 0 Ryuichi Sakamoto 26 9 Henry Kissinger 25 1 Sonny Rollins 25 0 Joanne Woodward 24 2 Andy Taylor 24 0 Bob Barker 21 1 With Sakamoto already a hit (9/30 jokers), and Rolf with the lion's share (11/30), this group has the bulk of the remaining jokers (6/30, a fifth). Any hit here always helps out over 2/3rds of the players, with sparse joker distribution. It is very likely if you picked Sakamoto, you have say Carter (except gcreptile, wannamaker or Hell). Overlapping picks in the Top Tier is frequent, even the two least picked of Taylor and Barker share 16 players who picked both of them. Middle of the Road # picks # jokers Jacques Delors 18 0 Milan Kundera 16 0 Pervez Musharraf 16 0 Norman Tebbit 15 1 Harry Belafonte 13 0 Sir Bobby Charlton 13 0 Jean-Marie Le Pen 13 0 Norman Lear 13 0 Linda Nolan 13 0 Yoko Ono 12 0 Tony Bennett 11 1 Rosalynn Carter 11 0 Dennis Skinner 11 0 Stanley Baxter 10 0 Joss Ackland 10 1 Nigel Lawson 10 0 3 of the 4 remaining jokers are in this set. So far, a majority (3/5) of the hits have come from this set too. Key picks in this set will aid your score. Wheat vs Chaff # picks # jokers Pete Murray 9 0 Shane MacGowan 9 1 Robert Wagner 7 0 Burt Bacharach 7 0 Mohamed Al-Fayed 7 0 Alan Greenspan 6 0 Dick van Dyke 5 0 Mel Brooks 5 0 Imelda Marcos 5 0 Sandy Gall 4 0 Ethel Kennedy 4 0 Cleo Laine 4 0 Marianne Faithfull 3 0 Dick Cheney 2 0 Prunella Scales 2 0 Willy Nelson 2 0 Only one joker in this set. However, this is where I think the game will be won. There is so little overlap, or none in the case of Laine & Faithfull, or one player with both Wagner & Greenspan. Hits here favour few people, so making the correct call here might be the difference between a podium finish and a participation ribbon. Uniques # picks # jokers Alan Alda 1 0 Ali Khamenei 1 0 Bob Newhart 1 0 Hal Linden 1 0 Tina Turner 1 0 None are jokers and they only favour 4 players (chilean way has two uniques, Alda and Khamenei). The extra hit is less likely to penalize all players due to the high range (12 -22) of picks, but a correct call is a minimum of 2 points. Survivors (TBD) # picks # jokers Desmond Morris 0 0 Angie Dickinson 0 0 Robert Duvall 0 0 Michael Parkinson 0 0 With no picks, if they are a hit, they'll add to the total hits. Depending of if that happens and when, it could shift the players with a high number of picks into the hit bonus range.

Update 25 April Fifth hit: Harry Belafonte Another middle of the road pick, with a total of 13 punters for Belafonte. Total hits: 13 Teams with hit:13 Punters: theoldlady, The Daredevil, Dying Probably, chilean way, wannamaker, LizLemon, tracy, DoorSlammer, Book, The Old Crem, Annami, Hell, diego Teams with joker:0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus: diego, theoldlady, wannamaker, Annami, the Daredevil Fifth (consecutive) hit: DoorSlammer An impressive roll call for DoorSlammer with five hits in a row! And a warm welcome for chilean way who is on the board with a first hit. With no jokers, a rather pedestrian hit. However, as the hits add up, now five punters (diego, theoldlady, wannamaker, Annami, the Daredevil) all add +2 for the direct hit and the Third hit bonus. diego widens the lead.... Updated Score Belafonte Third Hit Bonus diego -10 1 1 Great Uncle Bulgaria -13 gcreptile -13 Joey Russ -14 Joltin Joe -14 Book -14 1 Grimgrass -15 Bibliogryphon -15 LizLemon -15 1 Summer in Transylvania -16 theoldlady -16 1 1 wannamaker -16 1 1 YoungWillz -17 Sean -17 DoorSlammer -17 1 Newjack -18 Funeralopolis -18 tracy -19 1 Annami -19 1 1 The Duke of Deadinburgh -20 Etushispushingupdaisies -20 TQR -20 Torva Messor -20 Hell -20 1 Dying Probably -20 1 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -21 The Daredevil -21 1 1 WinterCake -23 chilean way -23 1 The Old Crem -23 1

Update 4 April Fourth hit: Nigel Lawson A middle of the road pick, with a total of 10 punters who had Lawson. Total hits: 10 Teams with hit:10 Punters: gcreptile, Dying Probably, ThereWillBeDeaths7, YoungWillz, TQR, Summer in Transylvania, DoorSlammer, Bibliogryphon, Torva Messor, Sean Teams with joker:0 Punters: N/A Third hit bonus: gcreptile, Dying Probably, Bibliogryphon Fourth (consecutive) hit: Summer in Translyvania, DoorSlammer With no jokers, a rather pedestrian hit. gcreptile, Dying Probably and Bibliogryphon all add +2 for the direct hit and the Third hit bonus. diego maintains a narrow lead.... Updated Score Lawson Third Hit Bonus diego -12 Great Uncle Bulgaria -13 gcreptile -13 1 1 Joey Russ -14 Joltin Joe -14 Grimgrass -15 Book -15 Bibliogryphon -15 1 1 LizLemon -16 Summer in Transylvania -16 1 YoungWillz -17 1 Sean -17 1 theoldlady -18 wannamaker -18 Newjack -18 Funeralopolis -18 DoorSlammer -18 1 tracy -20 The Duke of Deadinburgh -20 Etushispushingupdaisies -20 TQR -20 1 Torva Messor -20 1 Annami -21 Hell -21 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -21 1 Dying Probably -21 1 1 WinterCake -23 The Daredevil -23 chilean way -24 The Old Crem -24

Update 3 April Third hit: Ryuichi Sakamoto A total of 26 punters had Sakamoto. He was the 4th most popular pick and had 9 of 30 jokers (30%). Note that 20 jokers (67% of total) are shared between two picks, Sakamoto (9) and Harris (11), so this is the biggest hit so far in terms of points shake up on the scores. Total hits: 26 Teams with hit:17 Punters: the old lady, the Daredevil, Dying Probably, wannamaker, LizLemon, Etushispushingupdaisies, YoungWillz, TQR, DoorSlammer, Bibliogryphon, Newjack, Grimgrass, Torva Messor, The Old Crem, Sean, Annami, Hell Teams with joker:9 Punters: Joltin Joe, gcreptile, ThereWillBeDeaths7, Funeralopolis, Joey Russ, Summer in Transylvania, Great Uncle Bulgaria, Book, diego Third (consecutive) hit: LizLemon, Summer in Translyvania, DoorSlammer, Book, Hell Major changes in scoring now. Those who hit their joker have +4 (removal of the -2 penalty, +2 for the hit) and the five punters above also get the +1 bonus for their 3rd hit. The 17 punters with a hit get the standard +1. diego has a narrow lead, but has some security as 7 of the top 10 have all just hit their joker! Updated Score Sakamoto Joker Hit Third Hit Bonus diego -12 4 Great Uncle Bulgaria -13 4 Joey Russ -14 4 Joltin Joe -14 4 Grimgrass -15 1 gcreptile -15 4 Book -15 4 1 LizLemon -16 1 1 Bibliogryphon -17 1 Summer in Transylvania -17 4 1 YoungWillz -18 1 Sean -18 1 theoldlady -18 1 wannamaker -18 1 Newjack -18 1 Funeralopolis -18 4 DoorSlammer -19 1 1 tracy -20 The Duke of Deadinburgh -20 Etushispushingupdaisies -20 1 TQR -21 1 Torva Messor -21 1 Annami -21 1 Hell -21 1 1 ThereWillBeDeaths7 -22 4 WinterCake -23 The Daredevil -23 1 Dying Probably -23 1 chilean way -24 The Old Crem -24 1 The update for Nigel Lawson is in the works, just need to check the scores, regarding number of hits, etc. but at least there are no jokers.

C@nn@bis and Ric Flair sounds like a winning combination. Did you go?

And is a hit for two DDP teams, QO below: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2023/03/12/bill-tidy-cartoonist-who-won-cult-following-cloggies-fosdyke/ @TheKeysOfMarinus -I believe he's a hit for one of your teams

I know Ian McCulloch from the '80 video nasty 'Zombi' (aka 'Zombi 2') by Lucio Fulci. It is also the origin of the shark vs zombie memes. During lockdown I started watching 'Survivors' but I didn't finish it. Can't recall why...

Three teams, three QOs: https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/mar/09/chaim-topol-dead-fiddler-on-the-roof-actor-dies-death-aged-87 https://news.sky.com/story/fiddler-on-the-roof-actor-chaim-topol-dies-aged-87-12829215 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11838639/Chaim-Topol-Israeli-actor-known-Fiddlers-Tevye-dies.html

Rob Burrow receives ‘Points of Light’ award from Rishi Sunak: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-64876195 A minute long video that shows his condition and current state.

For those who enjoy form spotting and fancy a bit of gambling too, next Friday is your night! Exclusive Evening with Harry Redknapp He's 76, but little in terms of health issues. In 2017 he had a benign tumour removed from his bladder.

I am shocked that there was a QO for Paul Berg (died 15th February). I didn't see this one (thanks @Ulitzer95!) but he got many others: New York Times 21st February - the standard for Nobel laureates, especially if American LA Times 22nd February Washington Post 18th February and from various scientific associations: Royal Society of Chemistry 22nd February American Chemical Society 22nd February Given his accomplishments, it is heartening to see this many recognizing his work. What usually happens is that their former university acknowledges them (as Stanford did) and the Nobel Prize Foundation confirms. Having been to Asilomar Beach (the namesake of the conferences he founded) and been in the field of synthetic biology, it is without a doubt that his work does make him the godfather of genetic engineering.

Zandra Rhodes donates decades of archive material to De Montfort University Leicester: https://www.dmu.ac.uk/about-dmu/news/2023/february/legendary-designer-zandra-rhodes-to-donate-decades-of-archive-material-to-dmu.aspx She was also awarded an honourary degree from De Montfort University Leicester: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/zandra-rhodes-de-montfort-university-dame-london-princess-b1060684.html She looks good for someone diagnosed with bile duct cancer in mid-2020 (articles in July 2021 give the diagnosis as ' just over a year ago') during the first coronavirus lockdown. As I couldn't find any information on her in December, I dropped her in the DDP. The picture* makes me think it could be the right call, but she's coming up on three years since the diagnosis. She had chemotheraphy, but resection (resection = surgical removal) of the cancer gives the best outcomes - which I can't determine if she had. This matters, as the five year survival rate is zero for non-recected cases. Additionally, I can't determine what chemotheraphy agent was used, which would give some indication of the severity/progression. *Note the whites of her eyes - they are not jaundiced, which is a good sign

Her condition, Graves' disease, a thyroid disease, causes the eye bulging (exophthalmos). It is a key diagnostic feature of the disease. It is likely she has or will have other eye problems.