tracy

I'll go with Russell M. Nelson

The answer is that you are clearly tripping balls, because none of them were born in 1958.

No, it's some celebworx/officialpix "private signing" thing. I don't have a startiger account, but I think the last addition to his page (the one from the summer) is a scan from one of those.

I don't think he's made any appearances since 2020, but I assume he is still in good health, because he still signs loads of fanmail/collectibles. From last month:

Just to have an excuse to dig it back up again, here's the list of every living Oscar nominee born in the 1920s: Eva Marie Saint (b. 1924) Joe Hale (b. 1925) Alan Bergman (b. 1925) Phyllis Dalton (b. 1925) Lee Grant (b. 1925) Mel Brooks (b. 1926) Laurence Rosenthal (b. 1926) Arthur Cohn (b. 1927) Rosemary Harris (b. 1927) Marcel Ophüls (b. 1927) Estelle Parsons (b. 1927) James Ivory (b. 1928) Nancy Olson (b. 1928) Ann Blyth (b. 1928) Serge Bourguignon (b. 1928) Terry Moore (b. 1929) Michael Craig (b. 1929) Mark Rydell (b. 1929) Billy Williams (b. 1929) Fernanda Montenegro (b. 1929) Joan Plowright (b. 1929) June Squibb (b. 1929) I think Harris, Ivory, and Plowright are the most realistic DL choices, should they survive 2024. Given that Grant is an Oscar winner and turns 100 this year, she could continue the Lear/Johns/Saint streak, but she isn't discussed nearly as much on this site, so I'm not really holding my breath. Parsons is pretty much the same story. Craig has a pretty sizable cult following on here, but DLwise that ship has probably sailed. Squibb is a bit of a coin toss, given she only really became famous in the last 15 years, but she's definitely the most active of the group and her age gets a lot of coverage. She's 96 this year, so if she becomes a centenarian (or close) and keeps acting, which doesn't seem impossible, I think her deadpooling notoriety might increase enough to get her on the main list, but that's just me spitballing.

Let's do this thing... 1925: Lester Crown / Martha Firestone Ford 1926: Robert McGinnis / Stella Hackel Sims 1927: Fred Risser / Estelle Parsons 1928: Sidney Kimmel / Pilar Pallete 1929: Jerry Adler / Vikki Dougan 1930: Ion Iliescu / Taina Elg 1931: Mack Mattingly / Ann Roth 1932: Bob Pettit / Jenny Craig 1933: Michael Parenti / Joycelyn Elders 1934: Russ Tamblyn / Shirley Jones

Well, he did announce last week he'll be in Miami for a tribute concert shortly after his 93rd birthday in February: https://www.nws.edu/news/2024-25/nws-announces-gala-honoring-john-williams/ If he does show up there, I'd imagine he's probably recovered from his illnesses considering it's a 5-hour flight. That said, given his age and status, he strikes me as pretty likely to be on the DL until he dies.

Given how long people have said that (just see page 2 of this thread), I'm not too convinced his appearance is really that worrisome. In my opinion, he looks okay for an 82-year-old rocker with a huge health history. I think his retirement from performing probably bought him some extra time. Just see these videos from three/four years ago, where he looks godawful. The second one in particular looks like Weekend at Bernie's.

On Christmas: When Andy Paley died recently, his wife mentioned that Brian had spoken to him on the phone in hospice. Given that, and the fact that he can still attend movie premieres/go out to restaurants and sports games, his dementia doesn't seem particularly dangerous yet and he can probably live a few more years. That being said, I would never have bet that he'd live to be 82 at all, so I wouldn't argue for him to be dropped or anything.

Looks extremely safe compared to last year, which I guess is understandable. Don't really understand bringing Dickinson and Linden back or adding Armani and Ecclestone. Of all the potential picks/returnees, those seemed very low priority. Brian Wilson returning is fair enough, but he probably has a few years left. The Rex Williams return is cute. I'm very pleased they didn't miss out on Saint or Lovell, but there was very little chance they were going to after this year. Attenborough and Hurd are also welcome returns. The drops are extremely bizarre, although I advocated for extremely bizarre drops just because they were gonna be screwed no matter what, so whatever. But I still scratch my head at cutting Flack, Brokaw, and Turner and leaving Brooks, Routledge, and Eastwood on the list. I doubt the Brits on here will be pleased that Tebbit isn't on the list either. Stuart Hall strikes me as pretty risky. Not that I know much about him, but people seem quite confident he will die off radar. My gut feeling: 0 hits. I dunno after last year who's to say.

Alan Greenspan Jean-Marie Le Pen Yoko Ono Rupert Murdoch Gene Hackman Nigel Starmer-Smith Noam Chomsky Sonny Rollins Roberta Flack Joanne Woodward Esther Rantzen Ted Turner Antonia Fraser Tippi Hedren José Mujica Stanley Baxter Frank Gehry Dan Rather Tom Lehrer Estelle Parsons Rosemary Harris Cleo Laine Imelda Marcos Douglas Hurd Robert Duvall Don King James Ivory Leslie Caron Peter Yarrow Norman Tebbit Quentin Blake John Williams Buzz Aldrin Max Baer Jr. Joan Plowright Clive Davis Joe Don Baker Berry Gordy Tom Skerritt Lee Grant Dick Cheney John Astin Jim Lovell James Watson Lalo Schifrin Sly Stone Claire Bloom Ken Livingstone June Squibb Tom Brokaw

Thanks for running. Waited this one out to see if Carter would make it. He didn't. Of course, given these guys' ages, I'm not saying they're guaranteed to live another 24ish hours. Ray Anthony Marita Camacho Quirós Ethel Caterham Caren Marsh Doll James Clayton Flowers Kaiti Grey John Hemingway Tomiko Itooka Ágnes Keleti Phan Wannamethee Guillermo Rodríguez Donald Rose Ike Schab Song Ping Oscar Wyatt sub Eva Marie Saint

Joe Don Baker Daniel Barenboim Lem Barney Black Bart Graham Beckel Cindy Birdsong Michael Bolton Tom Brokaw George Burley Theo Burrell Ruth Buzzi Greg Cannom Graham Caveney Garry Chalk Tim Curry Mike Ditka Kitty Dukakis Roberta Flack Mark Gastineau Jack Hanna Dennis Hastert Chuck Howley Kanya King Sophie Kinsella Sally Kirkland Georg Koch Denis Law Ken Livingstone Judy Loe Peter Max Edie McClurg Nigel McCreary Steve McMichael (j) Ludek Miklosko Nicholas Monson José Mujica Dave Parker Joanna Paul-Robie Valerie Perrine Larry Pressler Esther Rantzen Raphael Vanessa Redgrave Ryne Sandberg Nigel Starmer-Smith Michael Tilson Thomas Ted Turner Johnnie Walker Brian Wallach Peter Yarrow sub Julie Goodyear David Lynch

ALAN GREENSPAN CLIVE REVILL DICK BUTTON DON KING EVA MARIE SAINT (joker) FELICIA FARR FRANK LAYDEN GENE HACKMAN GEORGE SCHLATTER ION ILIESCU JERRY ADLER JIM LOVELL KEN LIVINGSTONE LALO SCHIFRIN LEN DEIGHTON MICHAEL PARENTI NIGEL STARMER-SMITH NOAM CHOMSKY PRISCILLA POINTER PRUNELLA SCALES SANDY GALL SONNY ROLLINS STANLEY BAXTER TED TURNER VERA MILES sub JOSE MUJICA

Jimmy Carter and Jorge Lanata are hits for me. Ryne Sandberg can replace Carter and Ludek Miklosko can replace Lanata.

Yeah, true, it's obese by BMI for a guy Trump's size, but not overwhelmingly. I doubt Trump tells the truth about his weight, so I didn't really care about the actual number. He listed himself 239lbs in 2018, then 244lbs in 2020, and then 215lbs in 2023. There is no chance he has fluctuated that much. In all likelihood, he hasn't been less than 260-270lbs since running for president. (And, of course, he was found to have mild heart disease in 2018, so the fact that he didn't lose weight by 2020 doesn't speak well of Trump's organs.)

Kissinger was fat, but he wasn't THAT fat. He would have to have been genuinely colossal to make Trump's weight look healthy. Trump came in at 244 pounds on his last physical, which is very obese even if you believe his exaggerated 6'3" claim. If you look at Kissinger in his 70s, he really doesn't look staggeringly overweight. His spine collapsing on himself in his 80s and 90s made him look much fatter than he was. (Not to mention he wore ridiculously unflattering suits most of the time, whereas Trump's tailors do a decent job hiding his weight.) I don't think it's that great of an argument either. Sure, Fred did make 93, but given he was diagnosed with Alzheimer's in his mid/late-80s, he was not exactly Jack LaLanne. If he had died from it a few years sooner at say, 87, would people really be convinced that a guy like Trump was destined to tie George W. Bush? Maryanne Trump Barry, who was much more lucid than her brother despite being nearly a decade older, still died of cancer aged 86. I don't really know much about Robert Trump, but he doesn't appear to have been especially unhealthy leading up to his death, either. Regardless, I doubt Trump will die in office. He's definitely slowed down a lot since 2015, but he can probably handle the bare minimum of the presidency. I'm mostly curious to see if he allows himself to be seen using a cane/wheelchair if he lives to that point. He could go on for years in a zombified state, sure, but I think he's too conscientious about his appearance and looking like an old man to allow that.

Linda Lavin dead at 87.

I think it's likely, but I'm not gonna put money on it. I don't think any of them are that close to death as of yet, and any of Biden/Clinton/Trump could plausibly go downhill at any second. I think that Cheney will probably be the only president/VP to die before the 2030s. Clinton looked so horrible for a guy in his late 60s in 2015/2016 that I wasn't confident he'd survive a theoretical Hillary term. Now it's almost ten years later and he doesn't look especially healthier or anything, but I've mentally upgraded his condition from "awful for his 60s" to "mediocre for late 70s/early 80s". He did the talk show circuit this month to promote his new book and he still has that gaunt, pale look he's had for a while now, but he's still a much more coherent speaker than Biden and Trump and he doesn't have any obvious issues with movement. I think mid-80s for him isn't impossible (after all, Cheney has made it to 84 and counting and his health history is somewhat similar, if not worse), although I expect Hillary to outlive him by a fair few years. I think Biden is above average for an 82-year-old. He should never have been president, but as a Biden hater, I'll give him credit: not many guys his age are going to walk away from, say, falling off a bike unscathed like he did. I think he's looked okay for the past few months and I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the 2030s. Trump is the real wild card. He's definitely declined since he first came down the escalator, but it's nothing that really raises my eyebrow. Given he has never taken care of himself and he'll be the oldest president ever, though, he seems like the kind of guy who will decline really abruptly in a hurry (which happened to his father, too). I don't really give him much stronger odds than Clinton to live many more years myself, although I get why people do.

Charles Dolan is a hit for me. I'm not sure if there'll be another, but I'm still taking the point. 1924: Art Schallock / Josefina Villalobos 1925: Lester Crown / Martha Firestone Ford 1926: Robert McGinnis / Stella Hackel Sims 1927: Fred Risser / Donna Martell 1928: Sidney Kimmel / Pilar Pallete 1929: Jerry Adler / Vikki Dougan 1930: Ion Iliescu / Taina Elg 1931: Mack Mattingly / Ann Roth 1932: Bob Pettit / Jenny Craig 1933: Michael Parenti / Joycelyn Elders

Charles Dolan dead at 98.

What are you talking about? His latest movie (Tuner) was filmed only a month or two ago, and he filmed Peter Greenaway's new movie only a few months before that. He didn't attend Megalopolis' Cannes premiere, but he was at the NYC premiere, and he's attended many other events this year (Kung Fu Panda 4's premiere, the US Open, Wimbledon, etc.) What makes you think he has "quietly retired"?

Charles Shyer, Oscar-nominated writer/director of Irreconcilable Differences, Private Benjamin and the Father of the Bride films, dead at 83.

Eh. I disagree. Her overall decline has been pretty slow for someone whose DL thread from 2012 starts with "appears weak and frail in wheelchair". She strikes me as a grade-A coffin tease. At the Oscars three years ago, she couldn't even say "ten best nominees" without losing her train of thought. By comparison, she's fairly coherent here and her voice still isn't especially thin. I don't think there's anything particularly wrong with her beyond the fact that she's old and beat up her body with alcohol and drugs for decades. Which, yeah, means I don't think she'll live another decade+, but given that she's still lucid and plans to release a book (and read it on tape) over a year from now, I think that probably rules out the idea she's suffering from some major unrelated illness.

You can see her talking in October here. Frail, but IMO, she looks and sounds better there than she did at the Oscars almost three years ago. I would be fairly surprised if she died next year.