themaninblack

Result from the Parc de Princes: Leave 1 Remain 0

Didn't realise he was only 44. Looked way older than that. That's booze for you...

It is win-win for them.If they keep Corbyn the centre left Voters will go to them but if they ditch Corbyn those activists who rejoined the Labour party to elect Corbyn will need some where else to go. It could be the Greens but Tim Farron is not tainted by coalition so he could pick some up. The other problem is for Labour how do they get rid of Corbyn. Labour MPs could keep his name off the ballot paper but Labour Members would not forgive this. If his name is on the ballot paper he wins and turns the tables on the plotters. That's what I've been thinking about. Hardly anyone has mentioned those pro-Europe Tories yet they are the ones who'll be grieving the most from this vote. Their European dream, which was signed up by Ted Heath in 1973, is dead. They have been marginalised within their own party but a large minority of the Rank and File are still in the party, for the moment. That's a sizeable number of disaffected voters to tap into. The Liberals slate has been wiped cleaned by the electorate in 2015 so it may still be too early but they can build up again. Farron seems a nice chap but they desperately need someone of the charisma of the rootin', tootin' dog shootin' Jeremy Thorpe to lasso those wet Tories in. As for Labour, well they're in a bit of a pickle. A Blairite coup would be suicide as there's still a lot in the party tainted by New Labour association. Maybe they need someone new and not tainted such as Dan Jarvis or Keir Starmer who could steer a path between NL, the Hampstead liberals, Islington latte left and the right-wing WC likes of Hoey and Field as well as appeal to Kennedy Lib Dems and the Euro Tories so as to reconstitute a sort of Centrist alternative. But it wont be easy and it'll take time as the centre-ground, so beloved of Blair/Cameron has effectively been destroyed...

Extra chips to go with your steak for mentioning the great JB!

Interesting to see whether the neutrals will react to Brexit when England play The People's Republic of Narnia Iceland on Monday night...

Too many things went wrong too many times for the "Lad 'imslef" Tony Hancock, who committed suicide on this day in 1968 aged 44...

The game does not become void. just ended. A one off or repeated in the next parliament? Fair point Biblio, I'm blaming the fact I was bereft and operating on 3 hours sleep for my error. And I'm up for another go, although I'll be honest, I'm sure they'll find a way around having another election. Which leads me to.... Quicker in terms of time taken but not necessarily easier. To dissolve Parliament, there has to be agreement of 2/3rds of the House (so around 417 by my reckoning) or else a vote of no confidence in the government. If the latter happens there is a fortnight to form a new government before a general election is called, but if they can use that whenever they like then how does the Fixed Term Parliaments Act not just rely on a government sticking to the rules rather than dissolving itself whenever it feels like it could win a general like before? I'm not sure I see a clear way for the House to get to 417 unless it is agreed on all sides that we need a new election to elect our Brexit negotiating government. Boris will likely be riding the crest of a wave as leader and will be up for boosting his majority, but Labour wouldn't support that if it looks likely, especially if Corbyn is still leader. If Corbyn isn't, and Labour have enjoyed a bump in the polls, Boris may not be keen on taking a chance that the electorate won't 'do a Churchill' and say 'thanks for getting us out, now we want the other guys to negotiate for us'. Worse still would be a bump in support for UKIP in the autumn while Farage milks this for all its worth. On the flip side, while repealing a law is tricky and time-consuming, once it's repealed, they can do what they like, and unlike the FTPA, it would only (eventually) need a simple majority to pass the repeal. Unless it's clear that Boris can get a hugely improved majority, I think he'll be keen to get on with ruling and not want to take the chance with another election - not to mention a third national poll inside a year. I suspect the By-Election Bingo will get it's 5 years. And with it, I'll get some points for Mr Cameron's honourable resignation. That indeed could happen. Labour (either under Corbyn or a new leader) may well be put under heavy pressure to vote for an early election and considering the figures regarding Labour's core vote shifting to Leave, particularly in the North, they may have a disastrous election of 1983 proportions, maybe even worse new leader or not. So would those turkeys vote for Xmas? Another path is the other dissolution option - that of a simple majority having no confidence in HM Government presaging a period where the opposition leader (Corbyn, Starmer, whoever) is asked to try and form a new government before a second vote two weeks later, which would inevitably fail to get a majority and thus kick off the election. That delay would mean an election held on December 1st, which would the latest UK election in a calender year since 1923. Very unlikely to happen though...

The hollywood blondes . Hulk Hogan as Trump's running mate and you get a treble!

Makes the 1970s look like a piece of piss...

He deleted his career because he assumed, wrongly, that because he won the last election with a clear majority, against all bets and forecasts, he thought that his support to remain was a given. He was well effing wrong. It had nothing to do with the majority (which was only 12). It was that he never intended to get a majority in the first place. Miliband's weakness royally fucked the Tories. Osborne pledged £10 billion of spending cuts, knowing that in a coalition agreement this would get watered down to, say, half that. Cameron promised an In-Out referendum if we gave his party an overall majority, a safe bet because we were heading for another hung parliament and Labour were most likely going to form the next government anyway. Once the Tories got their majority, he had no option but to stand by the £10 billion cuts and that he had no option but to hold his promised referendum. His majority should never have entered into it, he knew even those who voted for his party were largely Eurosceptic, let alone the Ukippers. The reason governments have been so reticent to give an In-Out referendum, rightly or wrongly, is because of precisely this - the fear was it would be a close Out vote. Cameron boxed himself in a corner and then couldn't successfully get out of it. Where do you get 12 from? The last election was won with a big majority ( seats) there is no argument about it. Every pollster, every 'expert' all predicted an outright win for Labour and it didn't happen. Im not even sure how you can think that Cameron went into the election on the basis that he would become part of another coalition? If that had happened again, he would have had to go, he would have failed to secure an overall majority for the second successive time. He would have known about the Eurosceptics, however, he wouldn't have known that so many would have gone against his advice, and we are talking about the public not politicians, nor would he, or for that matter Corbyn and the other Labour 'ins' have even begun to understand that Party Politics meant jack shit to traditional Labour supporters. He had to offer a referendum, if he hadn't he would have been accused of being undemocratic, we are not yet North Korea. Once he made that choice he banked on the public backing him as they did in the election. We shall have to agree to disagree. A majority isn't the number of seats you get, it's the number of seats more than all the other parties you get. 2015 Parliament: 650 seats (326 needed for a majority) Conservatives: 330 seats Labour: 232 seats SNP: 50 seats Lib Dems: 8 seats DUP: 8 seats Sinn Fein: 4 seats (but they don't sit in Parliament) Plaid Cymru: 3 seats SDLP: 3 seats UUP: 2 seats UKIP: 1 seat Greens: 1 seat Independent: 1 seat Speaker: 1 seat Government: 330 Opposition 320 Sinn Fein don't take their seats (4), Speaker is neutral, as are his three deputies (2 Labour, 1 Con), all of which reduces the Opposition numbers by 8 more. 330-308 = Difference of 22 and a Working Majority of 12 (i.e. if 12 Conservatives vote with the opposition, the opposition has a majority and the government lose the vote). For comparison, Mrs T. had majorities of 44 (1979), 144 (1983) and 102 (1987). Blair had majorities of 179 (1997), 167 (2001) and 66 (2005). Major, on the other hand had a majority of 21 and I'm assuming you remember how unstable that government was - 12 is nothing. Almost all the polls in the run-up to the election said the most likely result was a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. That's why there was so much talk about a Labour-SNP pact post-election, it was likely the only way to form a government. Ruling parties rarely gain seats (1983 was the last time before 2015) so a Tory majority was seen as unlikely. You are correct that there would have been pressure on Cameron if they had been in another coalition, and he would naturally have been finished had they lost the election. Instead, he won a majority, the first for the Tories since 1992. The thing nobody seems to understand about 2010 is that while Cameron pledged a referendum, he was in coalition with the Lib Dems, who would never allow a referendum. The only way to get a referendum was to get a Tory majority, if he'd fallen short and done another deal with the Lib Dems, or - as some were suggesting in the event of a fragmented Parliament - a 'Grand Coalition' with Labour, he wouldn't have got the referendum through Parliament as the other parties would vote against it. The fact that we are not North Korea is exactly the reason he couldn't give a referendum - we have a Parliament and you need a majority of the Parliament to pass anything. A Tory majority was the only way he'd get a referendum and once he got it he had to win it. He didn't and that's his cross to bear. Which is why he looked so shit-scared the day after the election when it sank in that he had a majority. That was not the plan!

It would be quicker to enact the early general election clause than to repeal the act. By my calculations, the earliest possible GE would be on November 17th, which would bring By-Election Bingo #1 to end after only 18 months!

Funnily enough, Cameron only got his chance in that seat because the incumbent, Shaun Woodward, defected to Labour and moved up to a safe seat up north. Hmmmm...

Cameron is the third Tory PM in row fucked up by Europe...

Cameron resigns...

I think I can just make out Ted Heath's coffin starting to shift...

We'll need a new set of pencils for that lot then!

Looks like it's going to be Leave then. We live in interesting times...

Eden have voted to leave. If God's fucking garden has decided to go...

This could turn out to be a bit of a cliffhanger. Black coffee on standby...

The higher the turnout the likelier it will be Remain that wins...

So what's it going to be be? Reckon it'll be Remain 54 Leave 46...

I'm voting Leave. Tactically...

Match of the tournament so far between Croatia and Spain. Spain now face Italy!

Aye, Albania play with 11 and Wales play with just the 1................. Reminds me of the tale of the 1936 Olympics when in the 4x100m, it was USA vs France. USA had Jesse Owens on the anchor leg. One of the French sprinters said to one of the Americans "He's all you've got." The reply was "He's all we need..."

England get their customary 0-0 and Wales win the group!