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themaninblack

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Posts posted by themaninblack

  4. Posted

    The teams will be posted up tomorrow night!

     

    Friday 13th...an appropriate beginning, I think...

     

    There's just one more thing I want to do. I'm going to put news of some of the more controversial picks, when they inevitably drop on

    a separate, linked page called The Obituary Vault. I'm going to work on that right now...

    • Like 13

  6. Posted

    When do you think the first update will take place? From what I read, it usually happens 2-3 weeks into the year, but I want to know if it will be later due to the design changes.

     

    Oh, and please, take as long as you need. Don't think I'm trying to rush you through.

     

    Fingers crossed, sometime this week...

    • Like 6

  8. Posted

    As for 2017, I have registered all the teams. All that there needs to be done is the coding but we've still got a bit to go.

     

    538 teams this year, no doubt helped by a spike post Xmas as before chrimbo, numbers were looking a bit down on recent years.

     

    Nearly 900 new names, over 120 new teams.

     

    Big issue for me in 2017 is to do a tip-to-toe assessment of the whole database but I won't let that get in the way of getting the teams/celebs for 2017 up as quickly as possible.

     

    12,000 names - it's getting unwieldy and as for the pics!

     

    Edit: 537 teams. I counted one twice!

    • Like 4

  10. Posted

    I know you still need to update some things, but the fact that I'm even close to touching Spade's territory according to your calculations gives me a lot of hope for my time deadpooling ever. I think my most important gambit has to be the Ian Brady gambit. He made the final cut due to a gut feeling I have, probably similar to CC gut feeling for Douglas and DI gut feeling for Sallis. Only time will tell if it pays off.

     

    Well, if you're telling the truth about your age on your profile, you would be the youngest ever winner by a considerable margin. Indeed you are younger than the age limit we have for celeb choices!

  12. Posted

     

     

     

     

     

    In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others.

    Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

    So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.

    92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts.

    86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances).

     

    The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat).

     

    The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort.

     

    Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise).

     

    DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team)

    TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out)

    TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus =

    Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus =

    Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66

    Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47

    Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu =

    Cancel My Appointments:

    JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56

    RadGuy:

    Dead as a Doornail:

    Still Life:

     

     

    (I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.)

    Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

    I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.
    Please do mine, I have my team in my signature and my own personal analysis on this page.

     

    Done, and done.

     

    Gooseberry Crumble, while your teams may not score highest, I think they are very classy teams, full of interesting stories. None of those "cancer-celebrities". And it looks as if two of your teams will score higher than me in my first year. Also, I couldn't check all the new people very thoroughly. Sometimes you don't read any news about new people, are they just content to be left alone, or is health the reason? It's often hard to tell. So if you know these people better than me (surely true for UK authors and scandinavian politicians), and you know their half-secret health issues, your score will be higher than what I have calculated.

     

    If age is the reason someone was picked, I give a probability according to the fatality risk of a US social security recipient (statistics are available online). There is some adjustment if a person has heart troubles, is retired, looks bad, or gives interviews and the like... An 85 year old person basically has about a 15% of dying in the next 12 months, statistically. So it's 6 base points (for octogenarians) * 0,15 = 0,9. This is then multiplied with the chance of obiting. The base points get multiplied by the chance of being a unique hit, a Drop 40 pick, or the likelihood of an unnatural death.

     

    So, a unique 85-year old with 90% chance of obiting (say, some classical musician) but no chance of Drop 40 or unnatural death and no extraordinary health problems gets (6+1*3)*0,15*0,9= 1,215

    Some stage IV lung cancer patient (say, 80% of dying this year), say 56 years old, 50% obit chance, no chance of being unique or Drop 40 gets 9*0,8*0,5= 3,6

     

    So, the scoring system favours cancer celebrities, but then what can you do...

     

    Edit: Ok, enough deadpooling for now, I hardly got anything done at home in the past days...

     

     

    Welcome to my World...

    • Like 4

  13. Posted

    Anyone what Dr Z's team name was, so we can have a look to see if he's back?

     

    Also any news on whether Margerie Heinn has returned with his team?

     

    Curiously no. He emailed me at the beginning of the entry period asking about whether he could be let back into the forum. But I have no influence on that. As far as I know he didn't send in a team.

     

    I don't think Magere entered a team. Jesus Jones hasn't returned but Octopus has and Mr C is back for a record equalling 19th time.

     

    But I wont know solidly who's in and out for a while yet as I go through the entries. I've done a lot of prep today but will tackle the entries this evening...

  16. Posted

    First points of the year for me:

     

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-38492516

     

    John Berger, Booker Prize winning author.

     

    Unlikely to be unique, but still good to be on the board early on dayboo.

     

    Yes, folks. Anyone you know you've picked (or guess have been picked by others) please put on here so I know they've croaked while I'm putting on the teams/celebs in the next week or so...

     

    Deathray asked about entrants. There was a huge spike post-Xmas which by my calculations will put the entries past the 500 mark for 2017.

     

    But a lot of work still needs to be done. But first I have to round off 2016...

    • Like 1

  17. Posted

    I think what is quite telling is that there's been talk of other teams making Spade-like choices of having Spade-like teams, as if there was some formula to win. Such has been the impact of DQSP's success in recent years. Yes DDT has been unerringly consistent and have been brief periods of dominance by other teams. But Spade/DQSP represents I think the first truly dominant figure in the DDP. It's Steve Davis or Roger Federer. The yardstick for everyone else to match...

    • Like 1

  20. Posted

    For what it's worth, here are my teams:

    The Man In Black's "The Pythons are Dying in the Wrong Order..."


    Terry Jones (J)
    John Cleese
    Eric Idle
    Terry Gilliam
    Michael Palin
    Connie Booth
    Neil Innes
    David Sherlock
    Barry Cryer
    Richard Baker
    Diddy David Hamilton
    (singer) Lulu
    Ringo Starr
    Gwen Taylor
    Chris Langham
    Carole Cleveland
    Charles McKewon
    Kenneth Colley
    Patricia Quinn
    Simon Jones


    The Sunday Supplement's Premature Review of 2017


    Kirk Douglas (J)
    Bruce Forsyth
    Hillary Clinton
    Robert Wagner
    John Hillerman
    Peter Carrington
    Norman Tebbit
    Bob Dylan
    Jack Nicholson
    Sean Connery
    Sheila Mercier
    Clarissa Eden
    Freddie Starr
    Frank Williams
    Mel Brooks
    Eileen Derbyshire
    Chuck Berry
    Prunella Scales
    Queen Elizabeth II
    Burt Reynolds

    • Like 1

  24. Posted

     

    I must tot up who has won the player of the months over the 5 years I've been doing it...

     

    No need, I've done it for you.

     

    2016
    December - Mourning Glory - 37 points
    November - Worm Farmer - 18 points
    October - Sir Candy's All Stars - 22 Points
    September - Whole In Won - 20 points
    August - The Grim Actuary - 17 Points
    July - And My Name Is Larry and Dave's Dead, Aye Dead Drunk - 31 points
    June - It's Grim Up North - 16 points
    May - Old As Dirt - 13 points
    April - A Pelican In The Wilderness - 27 points
    March - Crossing The Styx and The Living End - 64 points
    February - Cancerous Hatred - 30 points
    January - David Quantick's Showbiz Pals - 53 points
    2015
    December - Tentoesup - 24 points
    November - Lord Gasp Saloon and The Funky Faz's Crypt Of Chortles - 15 points
    October - Deathlist.net, Death Stinks and P@F Deathlist - 15 points
    September - The Final Whistle - 13 points
    August - Today's The Day The Maggots Have Their Picnic - 23 points
    July - Chelski Pensioners, Dead Wait, Death: A Fate Worse Than Life, Red Flagged and The Good, The Bad and Cliff Richard - 24 points
    June - Last Gasp Saloon and Wall Street Massacre - 15 points
    May - Stardust - 24 points
    April - The Living End - 46 points
    March - Deathray's Kevorkian Clinic - 31 points
    February - David Quantick's Showbiz Pals - 17 points
    January - Taking The Michael - 26 points
    2014
    December - Obituaries 'R' Us and Wep 2.0 - World's Eternity Prophet Reloaded - 17 points
    November - Garf Wants You To Die - 13 points
    October - David Quantick's Showbiz Pals - 31 points
    September - Larry King Dead, Only On CNN - 16 points
    August - Black Penguins Of Doom - 16 points
    July - David Quantick's Showbiz Pals and Octopus of Odstock - 18 points
    June - Time's Up Team - 15 points
    May - Drunkasaskunk - 25 points
    April - Under-Soil Greeting - 28 points
    March - Abdelbaset's Liquorice All-Sorts - 20 points
    February - NoSoup4U! - 16 points
    January - David Quantick's Showbiz Pals - 44 points
    2013
    December - Biologically Dead - 23 points
    November - Hide & Go Die - 23 points
    October - I Shall Need To Get The Black Out and The Grey Horde - 18 points
    September - Doornails R Us - 11 points
    August - Drunkasaskunk - 15 points
    July - People Who Will Die Before Abe Vigoda - 24 points
    June - I Shall Need To Get The Black Out and The Grey Horde - 27 points
    May - David Quantick's Showbiz Pals and Dispatch Dudes - 17 points
    April - The Beatles Are Dying In The Wrong Order and Lord Football's Usual List of Ill People - 27 points
    March - Wormer, He's A Dead Man! Niedermier Dead! Marmalard Dead! - 34 points
    February - The Living End - 32 points
    January - Octopus of Odstock - 30 points
    2012
    December - One Bar Gas Fire And A Tin Of Dog Food - 17 points
    November - Plowing The Deep - 24 points
    October - Their Royal Deadness or O'Dreary Leader - 14 points
    September - Baz & Barry's Burial Bonanza - 17 points
    August - Lard Bazaar - 27 points
    July - Girlfriend in a Coma and Jill Dando's Cat - 21 points
    June - Clathrate Gun - 16 points
    May - Misers - 37 points
    April - Blacksox - 14 points
    March - The Living End - 29 points
    February - Star Dust - 29 points
    January - 'arri Kiri and Octopus of Odstock - 29 points

     

     

    Thanks, that's brilliant.

     

    EDIT: I've discovered that actually I have been awarding the Player of the Month prize since 2010 when I started!

     

    I'm going to include these stats in the Stats & Facts, along with a corner devoted to the Theme Team League. But that's not going to happen for a while yet...

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