As I already told, I tried to approach picking my DDP team via statistics and I've calculated my expected scores for several teams - as it can be seen on page 14 of the DDP 2017 thread. My current prediction of the Top Ten (well, Top 13) is like this:   1. The Love Boat 142,13 (This is most likely my own bias for my own picks - hard to avoid and possibly self-explanatory: I picked those who I thought would do best.) 2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 134,04 3. Pan Breed 133,338 4. Day in the Death 131,54 5. Bert Trautmann 129,93 6. To Kill A Gabor Sister 128,35 7. Thomas Jefferson Survives 125,3 8. Garn2: 124,26 9. Still Life 123,35 10. The Living End - 121,635 11. Drol - 120,00 12. I'm sorry for your trouble 115,876 13. Heading Nowhere 115,46 In this thread, I will continually post updates to this calculation and see how close my initial prediction was. A big update will come once the new DDP site update comes, by which we will know the Drop 40 and the unique candidates. There will also be updates as often as possible whenever one of the "big names" dies. The scoreboard above is after setting the uniqueness chance of certain people to zero, and before any name has died. The first update is happening after the deaths of "big names" Mario Soares and Peter Sarstedt. For now, I assume that Mario Soares will not make the Drop 40 although I gave him a bit of a chance of doing that in 2016. My initial calculation had him at 5,04 expected points, but those who score with him now only have 5 pts "in the bank", so these teams actually lose points in my calculation. But IF Soares makes the Drop 40 after all, all teams who picked him will increase their expected score by 3. The death of Peter Sarstedt is a bigger boost to those who picked him. His expected score in my list was only 3,14. But his death means that the teams who picked him already have 7 pts in the bank, so their expected score increases by (7-3,14)=3,86. So this is what the Top...13... looks like now: 1. The Love Boat 142,13 2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 134,04 3. Pan Breed 133,338 4. Day in the Death 131,54 5. Bert Trautmann 129,883 6. To Kill A Gabor Sister 128,35 7. Thomas Jefferson Survives 125,3 8. Garn2: 124,26 9. Still Life 123,304 10. The Living End - 121,635 11. Drol - 119,953 12. I'm sorry for your trouble 119,716 13. Heading Nowhere 115,418 The winner of this first update was Toast with the pick of Peter Sarstedt. Some small additional points: I will most likely add more teams as I have the time, so maybe there will be new entries in the Top Ten. (MPFC already has 2 hits?) This process can only finish once the big 2017 update of the DDP pages has come. As the year proceeds, I will occasionally reduce the probability of dying of the people who we don't know anything new about. So if, say, Errol Christie isn't dead by April, his probability of dying decreases from currently 70% (in my list) to 3/4th of that. I think quarterly updates would be best. On the one hand, I intend to "moneyball" deadpooling, if you know what I mean. I want my initial prediction to be as close as possible to the final result. On the other hand, I like to play with numbers and will probably also use a few Excel graphs in the course of the year. I created my own thread to avoid spamming the DDP thread, I hope it's ok.