gcreptile

The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

111 posts in this topic

As I already told, I tried to approach picking my DDP team via statistics and I've calculated my expected scores for several teams - as it can be seen on page 14 of the DDP 2017 thread. My current prediction of the Top Ten (well, Top 13) is like this:

 

1. The Love Boat 142,13 (This is most likely my own bias for my own picks - hard to avoid and possibly self-explanatory: I picked those who I thought would do best.)

2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 134,04

3. Pan Breed 133,338

4. Day in the Death 131,54

5. Bert Trautmann 129,93

6. To Kill A Gabor Sister 128,35

7. Thomas Jefferson Survives 125,3

8. Garn2: 124,26

9. Still Life 123,35

10. The Living End - 121,635

11. Drol - 120,00

12. I'm sorry for your trouble 115,876

13. Heading Nowhere 115,46

In this thread, I will continually post updates to this calculation and see how close my initial prediction was. A big update will come once the new DDP site update comes, by which we will know the Drop 40 and the unique candidates.

There will also be updates as often as possible whenever one of the "big names" dies. The scoreboard above is after setting the uniqueness chance of certain people to zero, and before any name has died.

The first update is happening after the deaths of "big names" Mario Soares and Peter Sarstedt. For now, I assume that Mario Soares will not make the Drop 40 although I gave him a bit of a chance of doing that in 2016. My initial calculation had him at 5,04 expected points, but those who score with him now only have 5 pts "in the bank", so these teams actually lose points in my calculation. But IF Soares makes the Drop 40 after all, all teams who picked him will increase their expected score by 3.

The death of Peter Sarstedt is a bigger boost to those who picked him. His expected score in my list was only 3,14. But his death means that the teams who picked him already have 7 pts in the bank, so their expected score increases by (7-3,14)=3,86.

So this is what the Top...13... looks like now:

1. The Love Boat 142,13

2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 134,04

3. Pan Breed 133,338

4. Day in the Death 131,54

5. Bert Trautmann 129,883

6. To Kill A Gabor Sister 128,35

7. Thomas Jefferson Survives 125,3

8. Garn2: 124,26

9. Still Life 123,304

10. The Living End - 121,635

11. Drol - 119,953

12. I'm sorry for your trouble 119,716

13. Heading Nowhere 115,418

The winner of this first update was Toast with the pick of Peter Sarstedt.

Some small additional points:

I will most likely add more teams as I have the time, so maybe there will be new entries in the Top Ten. (MPFC already has 2 hits?) This process can only finish once the big 2017 update of the DDP pages has come.

As the year proceeds, I will occasionally reduce the probability of dying of the people who we don't know anything new about. So if, say, Errol Christie isn't dead by April, his probability of dying decreases from currently 70% (in my list) to 3/4th of that. I think quarterly updates would be best.

On the one hand, I intend to "moneyball" deadpooling, if you know what I mean. I want my initial prediction to be as close as possible to the final result.

On the other hand, I like to play with numbers and will probably also use a few Excel graphs in the course of the year.

I created my own thread to avoid spamming the DDP thread, I hope it's ok.

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Next update after correcting for Drop 40 and unique picks (only 99% complete):

 

1. The Love Boat - 144,77

2. A Day in the Death - 142,66

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals - 140,49

4. Pan Breed - 136,2

5. To Kill a Gabor Sister - 135,73

6. Thomas Jefferson Survives - 135,395

7. Golden Slumbers - 135,13

8. Garn2 - 133,1

9. Still Life - 131,26

10. drol 130,94

11. I'm sorry for your trouble - 130,15

12. The Living End 127,55

 

Point boosts to everyone because of all the Drop 40 picks, now that the probability isn't somehwere between zero and one, but either zero or one. And it turns out that there wasn't THAT much of a difference between the participants on this forum and the general public. Surprising Drop 40 members like Errol Christie and John Wetton outweigh the cases of "random universally known old people"; like Jacuqes Chirac or Pope Benedikt XVI. I would say that the quality of deadpooling has improved in comparison to last year. The new people entering the DDP had a good look at the forum before submitting.

 

For the next update, I want to find the Top Ten candidates who have not presented their teams in the forum before.

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I don't actually really read the rules - can someone just run me through what is the Drop 40?

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I don't actually really read the rules - can someone just run me through what is the Drop 40?

The 40 most popular picks in the annual DDP. Popular as in = picked my the most teams

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I don't actually really read the rules - can someone just run me through what is the Drop 40?

The 40 most popular picks in the annual DDP. Popular as in = picked my the most teams

 

I see, thanks :)

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Looking over it all, I think that there won't be a clear front-runner this year and we'll be seeing a lot of chopping and changing at the top of the leaderboard. There's no front-loading of picks like there was last year, and instead a lot of Gilbert/Karl/Hewett types who we're backing to die but around September/October time.

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At a guess, there's around 20 teams who could wind up with well over 100 points. It seems to me that a whole bunch of folk are trying to get it to around 120-140 points, and then hoping their gambles will come off while some of Spade's don't.

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If it's true that I actually get second place like gcreptile predicted, then I'll have one of the, if not the, greatest debut of all time. :)

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If it's true that I actually get second place like gcreptile predicted, then I'll have one of the, if not the, greatest debut of all time. :)

That'll look good on your CV.

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If it's true that I actually get second place like gcreptile predicted, then I'll have one of the, if not the, greatest debut of all time. :)

That'll look good on your CV.

 

 

Alas, potential employers will see it and point to Fallen Sparrow 2005...

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If it's true that I actually get second place like gcreptile predicted, then I'll have one of the, if not the, greatest debut of all time. :)

That'll look good on your CV.

 

 

Alas, potential employers will see it and point to Fallen Sparrow 2005...

 

Yeah. I agree with that. I would still be higher in overall points though. Let's see how I do overall though...

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New update, now with Banshee's team in the Top Ten (others didn't quite make it), plus the deaths of Jimmy Snuka and Eddie Long:

 

1. The Love Boat (144,77)

2. A Day in the Death (142,66)

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (140,49)

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister (137,73)

5. Pan Preed (136,2)

6. Thomas Jefferson Survives (135,395)

7. Golden Slumbers (135,13)

8. New Years and Drinks All Night (134,31)

9. The Living End (133,63)

10. Garn2 (133,1)

11. drollercoaster (132,94)

12. Still Life (131,26)

13. I'm sorry for your trouble (130,15)

 

The death of Eddie Long was a significant boost in this calculation, as I only gave him a 60% chance of obiting and didn't quite believe he was actually sick. DDT is now in the Top Ten because of it. His team is full of outrageous gambles, and if one more of them succeeds, he's up there (in my opinion). The only team that picked both Snuka and Long was my reserve team which, at 110,465 expected points, is too far away to show up. A couple of teams get boosts for Jimmy Snuka, who I didn't believe with 100% certainty would die. But because of it, for example, To Kill a Gabor Sister overtakes Pan Breed.

 

I'm still not quite sure how to manage the passage of time. I'm thinking of not only of decreasing the probability of dying in 2017 of each celebrity with each quarter, but also the obitability of all cancer celebrities, possibily even with each month. Personally, I have a feeling, for example, that Alan Aspin's "window of obitability" has almost completely closed. If he isn't dead by the end of the month, I will reduce his chances of getting a qualifying obit by quite a bit - and those of other cancer celebrities as well (using my experience with Shameless). Maybe I'll differentiate between the cancer celebrities with a blog, and those without. I might also differentiate between those who are still being covered by qualifiyng outlets (example: Hannah Lyson's recent Daily Mail article) with those who aren't (Alan Aspin's update only showed up in a local paper).

 

So it will look like the teams gain scores with each death - because the probability of dying increases from not-quite-100% to 100%, but they will lose expected points if candidates continue to live.

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I really must say being ahead of TJS is truly an honor.

 

I remember when I first joined, I was rooting for TJS to win the 2015 DDP. I remember admiring DeathImpends' deadpooling brilliance.

 

And for gcreptile's analysis to indicate I could surpass him this year is truly a dream come true for me.

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I'm currently still in second place, but I expect it to drop. If Aspin does make it to February, then his obit chances will have reduced a lot. Not as worried for Loughlin, Sims, and Suisala though, think they'll all die and obit. The reality is that if I'm going to win this, which is possible, it's going to rely on some of the actual celebrities and not those cancer mums/dads. I'm talking about Al-Baghdadi, who's only way of dying is being droned. And Joost, who while some major competitors have him, teams such as DQSBP and The Living End don't have. And Wetton will be pretty important as well, as some major competition don't have him. The gambit that I'm really relying on, however, is Brady, as if he's telling the truth about his illness, then that'll be a successful ten point gambit. (And Bracknell not dying would be helpful as well).

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As it stands, for the current top 13 in gcreptile's probable scoreboard, I would consider the following to be the really important names to watch for each team. I specify that all the below names need to die or live, even if I feel there's no chance they see the year out, per the Yogi Berra mantra of "it ain't over till it's over", likewise considering obitting a factor even if I feel a name's chances of getting one is 90%. (however I excluded a few differentials like Magill who are sure to die and obit)

 

I also decided to put Joost living as a more critical factor than Joost dying, simply because more of these teams have him than not (but he could go either way):

  1. The Love Boat - Berkowitz, DJ Casper, Hvorostovsky, Laws, Spiridonov die / Kobayashi dies and obits / Meads, Skellern, Wetton live
  2. Day in the Death - Suisala joker dies and obits / al-Baghdadi, Brady, Davies, Loughlin die / Aspin dies and obits / Bracknell, Elias live
  3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals - Bradley dies / Brokenshire, Clark, Singh die and obit / Joost lives
  4. To Kill a Gabor Sister - Byrne, Loughlin, Salmon, Spiridonov die / Hankins dies and obits / Elias, Meads, Wetton, Joost live
  5. Pan Breed - al-Baghdadi, Holmlund die / Aspin, Butts, Lakovic, Suisala die and obit / Meads, Skellern, Wetton live
  6. Thomas Jefferson Survives - Bradley dies / Barrett, Perez die and obit / Wetton, Gilbert live
  7. Golden Slumbers - Cryne, Golmard, Forsyth die / Elias, Gilbert, Meads, Stefansson live
  8. New Years and Drinks All Night - al-Baghdadi joker dies / Balawing, Hawking, Rigas, Stewart die / Wetton lives
  9. The Living End - al-Baghdadi joker dies / Spiridonov dies / Cameron-Blackie, Lambert, Mutrie, Pollard die and obit / Stefansson, Joost live / Sims lives or doesn't obit
  10. Poochie - Bain, Langhorne, St. John die / Quincy Jones dies and obits / Sims lives or doesn't obit
  11. Droller Coaster - Boles, Hamilton, Sallis die / Darc, Hart die and obit / Elias, Joost live
  12. Still Life - Kobayashi joker dies and obits / Fujimori, Spiridonov die / Hart dies and obits / Elias, Gilbert, Meads, Stefansson live
  13. I'm Sorry For Your Trouble - Bayldon, Benedict, Boles, Gascoine, Mockford, Ricksen, Stiles die / Elias, Meads, Stefansson live / Sims lives or doesn't obit (would only likely win if by a miracle, the entire UK media begins a vow to no longer report on the deaths of famous for being ills - but it is testament to the fact you can still enter a strong team using fully legit picks)
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Anna Holmlund is breathing without support but has considerable and possibly irreversible brain damage. A bad Deathrace pick, I'm thinking if she does die it'll be mid-summer/July like Bianchi.

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I'm Sorry For Your Trouble - Bayldon, Benedict, Boles, Gascoine, Mockford, Ricksen, Stiles die / Elias, Meads, Stefansson live / Sims lives or doesn't obit (would only likely win if by a miracle, the entire UK media begins a vow to no longer report on the deaths of famous for being ills - but it is testament to the fact you can still enter a strong team using fully legit picks)

 

 

Thank you, DI.

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Deadpool sabermetrics are a thing that, to be honest, I have been using over the past few years: I always believed that the value of a guaranteed 90+ pick is vastly underrated, for instance, and selected my teams based on that knowledge. Of course, the introduction of the Drop 40 bonus rewrites the rules, but we'll only really know the impact of that in 11 1/2 months.

 

One of... rubric that is alluded to upthread and a few other times is knowing when a "cancer mum" is a worthwhile pick or not: at what point does someone who is only "famous for being ill" cease to be the former and just become the latter? And what are the factors that play into this?

Taking two names on various teams this year, who both came into "fame" at the same time: Clark and Aspin.

 

Aspin was one of the last five names cut for me. His only "living QO" (to coin a mixed term) came from the Mirror on December 11th (his case has been widely followed by the Manchester Evening News, and he did get an ITV mention but that was on its local Granada page). If it'd been on the 21st or the 31st of December, I may have risked him. But at a minimum he was going to die 20 days after his press mention. Now he will die at least 37 days later, and seemingly much much more. What's the turnaround for this still being news as far as the Mirror are concerned? "Tragic bride marries on deathbed" stories are ten a penny, but they have to die within a few weeks to get the follow-up QO right? And this isn't a tragic bride, it's a fucking criminal who isn't exactly a heartstring tugger.

 

Clark, on the other hand, I did pick. He got a "living QO" from the Mirror on November 20th, and The Sun a day later. The Mirror did a follow-up story on 17th December. This is what persuaded me to pick him: he clearly has a press contact with the Mirror, and the Mirror even sent his kid some fake snow and a Santa so they could "celebrate Christmas together". Of course, the further he lives, the less of a news story he becomes. Which is worrying for DDP purposes, but great for him (and Toast).

What I'm saying is: can sabermetrics/OptaReaper really help us identify who to pick, and who is going to be like that lass who got all the Olympians in 2012 making hand gestures about cancer whose name I can't even google any more because I've forgotten it?

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Yeah, that's one of the reasons I axed D@n1 K3mp - a single Daily Mail mention 5 months ago. That, and you know, picking someone that age who is 50/50 just comes as a right cunt move imo.

 

Alan Aspin was my 19th choice, and I can't remember why. Think I decided to take a punt on him. The 20th pick was going to be Hewlett and then just before I sent the email off I stopped, cut his name and chucked Al-Baghdadi in, as if there was a sudden whim.

 

But really, I went for eleven "certs", and three "certs" who are dodgy obits. Which left me enough of a "points bank" to gamble with a few spots, on a comatose Olympian, the Lazy town chap and so on, 50/50ers if you will.

 

If I'd twigged that Skellern was going to make the Drop 40, then Sara Coward might not have been my oldest team member...

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I did the exact same thing with Al Baghdadi. Originally, Paul Van Zandvliet was my 20th member with Bracknell as first sub, but at last minute put Zandvliet as first sub with Al Baghdadi replacing him.

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Biggest gamble you took, Joey, imo, was making your joker a risky obit.

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I'm personally not as worried if he's going to obit as much as Alan Aspin. Had it just been a cancer dad, I'd probably ignored him just like many other cancer moms and dads I saw (Jay Clark didn't show for some reason, I think he would've made the cut if he had shown up, while I ignored Magill, which was a mistake). The reason why he made it, and confident enough to make my joker was the words "professional rugby hopeful". If that doesn't get him a daily mail obit when he dies, then I don't know what will.

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Ay, I am very worried about Sara Hankins' obit chances. She's worth 13 points after all.

 

One thing I don't understand is the moral argument against cancer mums. Oh, no, you don't want to pick this poor cancer mum because she's leaving behind her poor little childrens and such. Well, none of y'all had a problem with adding D-list celebs like Joey Feek, who left behind a toddler with Down's Syndrome.

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Depends what you mean.

 

Toast has long held views (which I respect, though clearly by choice of my picks disagree with) on fame requirements for deadpools, also she didn't pick Joey Feek on those grounds either. Spade is talking solely in QO grounds. I was talking about a QO teenager, not a cancer mum. In general, I like to refer to the tipping point as "active v passive" ie "I have cancer and here is what I'm doing" (Dr Kate, Dr Mark, Rowena) vs "I am death warmed up and the papers are reporting on me because I'm a warm corpse" (Grace thingy, etc) but thats just a personal thing and not widely agreed with. I know many believe its foolish assigning morality to deadpooling, but its much like journalism to me: not everyone need work for The Sun. Ditto every deadpooler, and their picks towards the fame dubious end of the spectrum.

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Ay, I am very worried about Sara Hankins' obit chances. She's worth 13 points after all.

 

One thing I don't understand is the moral argument against cancer mums. Oh, no, you don't want to pick this poor cancer mum because she's leaving behind her poor little childrens and such. Well, none of y'all had a problem with adding D-list celebs like Joey Feek, who left behind a toddler with Down's Syndrome.

 

My "moral argument" is that these people are Not Famous. The DDP was always a celebrity dead pool, but it's become polluted by mawkish tabloid nobodies.

 

FYI I didn't pick Joey Feek in my main DDP team, because I didn't consider her famous.

I did include her in my music theme team, she only scraped in because of the Grammy nomination.

But that was before I realised the sheer number of categories, sub-categories and sub-sub-categories make up the Grammys. It's like a prize for everybody, what a farce.

 

Oh yeah, and I don't pick the non-famous friends and relatives of Z list celebrities either.

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