The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[Death Impends 7,361]

Did figure a massive boost was coming my way with the next one of these updates. Recall you saying you put Laura Barry as a low scorer at first, probably since she was both a will she die AND will she obit pick.

 

Also I think not only do Barry and Shutts balance out my early bad luck but so does the fact a lot of teams seem to be hit by misfortune this year. Not just most of us jokering Vevoort, but that the amount of LotL picks among contending teams seems disproportionately high... Anzaki, Butts, Heimel, LaFaye, Manikan, Ouanounou, Remigino, Toothill... some like Remigino could eke out an obit down the line, but even so, the point stands. Bucket of Blood's current lead can be thanked to both having 11 deaths AND all of them obiting.

[CaptainChorizo 1,898]

2018 definitely has to be the year of most shocking non obits. An Oscar winning Cinematographer,100 M Gold Medalist, Lead of a Primetime Us Sitcom and Oldest Living Person in Europe all missed

[Joey Russ 7,118]

I think 2018 is going to be an outlier in the grand scheme of things. I think almost every player had a team that looked much better on paper than how they’re actually doing now, whether it’s the mentioned fact that nearly everyone chose a poor joker to begin and some not obiting but also certain picks hanging on for much longer than expected (McCain, Bracknell, Stiles, etc) as well as picks that now look much weaker than they did at the beginning of the year, particularly Tiffany Youngs and Greg Gilbert. I feel that all of this threw most people off guard. I think next year people will score much higher because there are certain lessons that I think we can all learn from this year such as knowing that it may not be the best idea to joker someone for potential unnatural points next year (plus local obits should be coming back, so there’s that as well)...

[Spade_Cooley 9,013]

I think it's a 2014 redux more than anything. 

[gcreptile 10,212]

Today pretty much convinced me not to continue this for next year. I mean, I will keep the numbers for myself, after all, my longlist works that way. But intuition and experience needs to work together with statistics. You can't rely on one of them alone.

Apart from this year's dependence on Marieke Vervoort's mood, I especially cannot justify not having had Pity Da Foolz in the Top 20 recently.

Of course, someone else may open another "meta"-DDP-thread. 

[Sir Creep 7,011]

On 10/01/2018 at 12:11, gcreptile said:

I wasn't quite correct. I have Mary Wilson basically just as an age-based pick. So something like 30% chance of dying of a 5-pointer. Mike Pintek most likely won't obit, BUT IF... he's gold. Just like Kevin McAllister. 

David Cervinski could also turn out to be a golden pick. I think my score doesn't reflect his Guardian coverage yet.

 

So your B-Team may well catch up a little. But for the moment it looks like this:

 

 

	Pan Breed				Here's who you could have won
	Name	Expected score	base points		Name	Expected score	base points
1	Leah Bracknell	10,80	12,00	1	Marieke Vervoort	12,49	13,00
1	Leah Bracknell	10,8	12,00	1	Marieke Vervoort	12,4925	13,00
2	John McCain	9,00	9,00	2	Jessica Falkholt	6,15	10,00
3	Kathleen Blanco	4,20	7,00	3	Fernando Ricksen	6,75	13,00
4	Patrick Cryne	7,47	7,00	4	Dean Francis	8,05	10,00
5	Rayya Elias	9,00	9,00	5	Kevin Carr	4,58	10,00
6	Greg Gilbert	7,44	13,00	6	Pete Stokes	4,34	10,00
7	Philomena Lynott	4,54	5,00	7	Hugh Masekela	5,53	7,00
8	Ian Toothill	5,77	10,00	8	David Cervinski	3,71	10,00
9	Vanessa Goodwin	7,42	9,00	9	Peter Overton	3,35	8,00
10	Catherine Nevin	5,04	8,00	10	Kevin McAllister	2,00	12,00
11	Carl Piddington	7,34	9,00	11	Ami Brown	3,78	9,00
12	Tessa Jowell	6,37	10,00	12	Paul Alcock	4,00	8,00
13	Matt Cappotelli	4,64	10,00	13	Mike Pintek	1,87	11,00
14	Stefan Karl Stefansson	6,35	13,00	14	Angus Sinclair	5,11	7,00
15	Liam Miller	10,80	13,00	15	Bernie DeKoven	4,37	10,00
16	Pete Stokes	4,34	13,00	16	Lindy Remigino	3,60	6,00
17	Satoru Anzaki	3,84	6,00	17	Charlotte Rae	5,85	5,00
18	Pete Frates	5,40	10,00	18	Mary Wilson	1,20	5,00
19	Steffan Lewis	4,20	10,00	19	Chris Mortensen	3,32	8,00
20	Devin Lima	7,00	10,00	20	Johnny Hubbard	5,40	6,00
All		141,744	205	All		107,938	191

 

 

Edit: I have Mary Wilson's chance of dying at 30% actually (0,3*4), because I always find it ominous if old people are silent. But I think she just recnelty gave an interview? That's not in the score. I would get mad if updated daily.

Mike Pintek is on the clock.  Whoever is waiting for the obit, fingers crossed.

[gcreptile 10,212]

I am not going to do this anymore - but to check my own progress in doing this - here's what, with my knowledge on Dec 30th, the best possible team would have been:

 

Fernando Ricksen (joker)

Lloyd Klein

Pauline Hunt

Samantha McConnell

Jean-Louis Trintignant

Andrew Fairlie (12 pts)

Dewayne Johnson

Darren Easton (12 pts)

Johnny Clegg

Emma Robinson

Sir Peter Jonas

Fatima Ali (12 pts)

George Alagiah

Deborah James

Leah Bracknell

Leanne Barrett

Andrew McGahan (9 pts)

Bobby Joe Maxwell

Chris Doleman

Lee Kerslake   Expected score 157,47

[gcreptile 10,212]

On 10/01/2018 at 20:22, gcreptile said:

Out of about 1300 living people on my longlist, only 11 currently have the 100% (for 2018):

John McCain, Lindy Remigino, Ron Villemaire (Star Wars fan), Kevin McAllister (DWTS something of a something), Nicki Flood (cancer mum), Spanky Manikan (who doesn't know him?), Vanessa Goodwin, Bobby Zarin, Morrie Boogaart (hat-knitting guy), Bill Crider and Franco Zeffirelli.

 

 

I just realized that with Zeffirelli dead, the list is now complete. Zeffirelli was the odd man out - dying 5 1/2 months too late.

 

Reason for this renewed attention is the death of cancer campaigner Andrew Winterbottom:

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17704316.obituary-fight-bladder-cancer-founder-andrew-winterbottom/

 

One of the 100%-ers on my list for 2019.

 

I think I have even fewer 100%-ers on my list than last time - of those who already died this year, there are only Rick Elias, and Bruce Corbitt. But that's because I put all those dead-certs-but-not-quite-famous-enough-or-not-living-long-enough-anyway people in a separate list for Cup purposes.

 

There are 14 living 100%ers right now on my list, among them many already known names, but also Marlene Brewer of "Cats in Crisis" and cancer husband Tommy Harris of Northern Ireland. These two might be dead already.

Four of these names are additions I made during 2019 - and two or three of those have had an upward adjustment during the year.

[Spade_Cooley 9,013]

I added my first "100% pick" for 2020 the other day. Felt good.

[gcreptile 10,212]

I have a few names that I consider very Spadey. I might even field one or two of them in the Poker Pool.

I'm sure your team will be very interesting. 

[Sir Creep 7,011]

I’ve already got eight ‘100%ers’ for 2020.

I got them from my 100%ers list from 2018.

 

[gcreptile 10,212]

On 22/06/2019 at 13:02, gcreptile said:

There are 14 living 100%ers right now on my list, among them many already known names, but also Marlene Brewer of "Cats in Crisis" and cancer husband Tommy Harris of Northern Ireland. These two might be dead already.

 

Well, it seems Marlene Brewer is actually dead, since January 14th, because thats what her niece said in a blog or reader comment I cannot open. Maybe you can:

https://www.stcatherines.co.uk/news/brother-and-sister-save-up-pocket-money-and-pound-the-pavements-for-st-catherines-hospice/

 

I can only see it through the normal google search.

[Death Impends 7,361]

4 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

 

Well, it seems Marlene Brewer is actually dead, since January 14th, because thats what her niece said in a blog or reader comment I cannot open. Maybe you can:

https://www.stcatherines.co.uk/news/brother-and-sister-save-up-pocket-money-and-pound-the-pavements-for-st-catherines-hospice/

 

I can only see it through the normal google search.

 

I can open it.

 

Quote

Sarah said: “My auntie Marlene Brewer was cared for by St Catherine’s nurses at home in Bamber Bridge for six months, and she died on January 14 this year. It had a big impact on the children, and they wanted to do something to raise money for the charity because they know St Catherine’s helps people with illnesses like cancer to be more comfortable.