Gooseberry Crumble

Cheers Sorted!

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts. 86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances). The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat). The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort. Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise). DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team) TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out) TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus = Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus = Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66 Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47 Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu = Cancel My Appointments: JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56 RadGuy: Dead as a Doornail: Still Life: (I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.) Love to know what you make of my crumbles!!

Like I promised you, I'll begin with your blueberry team. First off, the majority of the people here seem to be distinguished within their own fields and would likely get a qualified obituary (QA). The ones who might risk ending up on the "list of the lost" (a.k.a. get "Eleanor Rigbied") are Frederick Dent and Arthur Irving. The latter one despite his vast fortune seems like a low-profile billionaire. Since all of your picks are 70+ years old, you will get a base score of 4-7 points per hit. Unique picks (UP) or Drop 40 picks (D40) would of course help increasing your total. It's too early to tell yet, but I would estimate that you could have between 2-3 UP in there somewhere. As for D40 bonuses, you may have 3-4 candidates. Looking at the actualy names, I would consider Jack Nicholson to be among the unlikeliest do pass away this year. Queen Sofia, Nick Nolte and Julie Goodyear fall into the same category in my opinion. Conversely, Liz Dawn and Mary Wilson are probably among the likeliest hits for you in blueberry's debut season. The others could go either way, because many of them are indeed old and their health statuses may vary. Humans age biologically at different rates, meaning that a 90-year old might have a healthier body with functioning internal organs than, say, a 70-year old. I think that, statistically, gambling on a set of group of old people to die within a year would give a hit rate of around 1/4 or even 1/3. Excluding medical insight and knowledge, that is. So, I would estimate that you could anticipate approximately 4-6 hits, which is a decent result. Point-wise, I don't know because I don't know who your joker is. Thank you for your thoughtful quality analysis. My joker is always at the top of the list so in this case it's Thomas Kennally. I think it will be in mid January when we all know whether our picks our unique? Just out of curiosity which do you think are my likely unique picks please? What impressed me so much with your list is your clear strength for finding unique picks. Finding people who are unique picks but likely to obit to the extent I believe you have is a very tricky thing to pull off. I'd say that at least half of your picks are unique if not more. Like me you go for a good variety of people and don't just concentrate on people from the same field. I think Dean Stockwell is probably your weakest pick and strikes me as a 2018 name and I think the Swedish princess is probably one of your strongest picks imo. When you have the time would you mind comparing and contrasting the different crumbles and telling me which you think is my strongest time and once you tell me I will then tell you which I think is my strongest team and my weakest. It would be interesting to see if we agree! Many Thanks

Just noticed that there are 40 men on this year's list and 10 women! Just an observation not a criticism!

Do people qualify for being on the list simply for being related to someone famous? Some people were talking of including Roberta McCain, who at 104 is famous for being, what, the mother of a US presidential candidate? Mary Wilson is a similar case. Are they really famous in their own right to qualify for the list? Both have Wikipedia articles and McCain did some some help with campaigning and Wilson is a poet but there is nothing major that makes them stand out as particularly notable other than who they are related to. If you could include them, why not include John Wetton's 101-year-old mother on the list? Where do you draw the line? I suppose it's possible to contrast cases like that with relations who are obviously notable, like US First Ladies, who are always clearly deathlistable. Yes in my view SOME people do qualify in a very relatively small number of cases, Rossalyn Carter, Barbara Bush, Cherie Blair, Samantha Cameron, Clarissa Eden, Mary Wilson, Sarah Brown, Dennis Thatcher, Michelle Obama, Laura Bush etc would be worthy of serious consideration for qualifying for being deathlisty in their own right as and when it looks like they may die within that year. For better or worse they've been part of the national life, national stage in their respective countries. I think Mary Wilson has a very interesting history in the context of UK politics and whilst in the UK we don't formalise the role of PMs spouse to my mind they effectively are the UK equilivent of first lady first husband etc. Roberta McCain isn't deathlisty but she's a valid pick for individual players on their own teams. I think she's quite a moderate choice given the name's some people choose! The issue of family members or spouses of the primary famous person being chosen for deathlists and choices on here seems to naturally self limit to a small number of people or choices so I'm not at all worried about it or concerned it will lead to a slippery slope deluge of people picking lots of famous people's family members.

I think Mary Wilson widow of British Prime minister Harold Wilson could prove to be a bit of an unnecessary miss.

That's a great list! Lots of unique picks and detailed research

Also by my calculation Nanette Fabray wouldn't have been on the list if I'd have voted another way and I nearly did! Just shows you how close and tight it was!

Great list -I think there's a decent chance it will give the committee a run for its money!

Here's my three deadpool teams TEAM BLUEBERRY CRUMBLE 1) Thomas Keneally (author of Schiendlers ark -inspiration for Oscar glorious film Schiendlers list) 2) Mary Wilson (widow of ex PM Harold Wilson) 3) James Lovelock (gaia theory) 4) Dorothy Malone 5)Julie Goodyear 6) Rosamunde Pilcher (British author) 7) Sidney Poitier 8) Hans Rausing SNR (Swedish billionaire inherited tetrapak empire) 9) Poul Schuter (former pm of Denmark) 10) Jack Nicholson 11) Hubert De Givenchy (fashion designer) 12) Frederick B Dent (US Secretary of commerce under Nixon Ford) 13) Arthur Irving (Canadian billionaire of the Irving Group) 14) Nick Nolte (us actor) 15) Barbara Bush 16) Queen Sofia of Spain 17) Nigel Lawson 18) Estelle Parsons (us actress) 19) Liz Dawn 20) Cleo Laine GOOSEBERRY CRUMBLE TEAM 1)The Dowager Duchess of Grafton 2) Paul Biya (President of Cameroon) 3) Lee Radziwill (American socialite and sister of Jackie Kennedy) 4) Lord Snowden 5) Pat Boone (us singer) 6) Mary Carlisle (silent movie star) 7) Austin Mitchell( Former UK Labour MP) 8) Robert Fyfe Scottish actor -(Last of the summer wine) 9) Dale Winton 10) Henrik Prince of Denmark 11) Gene Hackman 12) Brunhilde De Ponsel (Goebbels press Secretary) 13) James Watson (scientist and cofounder of DNA helix) 14) Franco Zeffirelli (Italian film director) 15) Wilbur Smith( British novelist) 16) Benjamin B Ferencz( the last Nuremberg Prosecutor) 17) Lionel Blair 18) Gina Lollobrigida (Italian actress) 19) John Cunliffe (author /creator of Postman Pat) 20) Imelda Marcos APRICOT CRUMBLE TEAM 1) Sir Bernard Ingham ( former Press Secretary to Margaret Thatcher) 2) Winnie Ewing SNP royalty 3) Johnny Gold (owner of Famous celebrity haunt Tramps nightclub in London) 4) Barbara Walters 5) Jim Bowen (Bullseye presenter) 6) Nicky Haslem (British socialite and interior designer _friend to the stars) 7) Joan Kennedy (of the famous US political Dynasty) 8) Robert Benton (US film director of Kramer Vs Kramer fame) 9) Hugh Hefner 10) Pierre Cardin 11) Gerald Kaufman (Labour MP) 12) Geoffrey Boycott 13) Robert Bergland (former US Secretary of agriculture under Jimmy Carter) 14) Barbara Sinatra (widow of Frank Sinatra) 15) Petula Clarke 16) Loretta Lynn 17) Elizabeth Kelly( British actress played Aunt Nellie in EastEnders) 18) Burt Reynolds 19) Cindy Adams (US gossip columnist) 20) Shirley Bassey But which Crumble seems best?! Which Crumble will taste best......?

Also you've listed Antony Armstrong Jones and Lord Snowden separately -their the same person!

Should have wrote dead under Zsa Zsa and then subbed her with Cindy Adams as you did with Melvin Laird but other than that perfect. Cheers and happy new year

Overall a fairly solid and decent list. My initial thoughts and feelings Im glad Doris Day has been removed.She seems rather healthy and vibrant for her age.I don't think 2017 is her year. Im surprised Gene Hackman wasn't included,I feel the amount of time hes been out of the public eye completely is indicative of his long term ailing state. I don't think this year is Olivias year but I can understand why shes been kept on it.Shes kind of there now until the end. I hope their right about Robert Mugabe-I desperately hope their wrong about Betty White but the case for her being there is strong especially as the only remaining name from one of the biggest sitcoms from the 1980s she would be a bad miss if she wasn't on the list and died. I think the talk? prediction of this being a record breaking year is justified but there could be a few on there who are like creeking old doors who could go on for a few years yet and thwart any record breaking.Olivia strikes me as one of those.She seems very robust for a lady of 100. Pierre Cardin-a decent pick.I think internationally famous people from the world of fashion are going to become more frequent on the list in years to come,Calvin Klein,Karl Lagerfield etc Im glad Mary Tyler Moore is still there as I think this is her year and the committee would have ended up rueing the decision to remove her if they had. More thoughts at another time but yes an impressive list.

Right my shadowlist is now in my signature !Its basically 100 percent what I sent the OP for the crowdsourced deathlist.. Quite an unusual mix not sure how I will fare but what the heck!

Thanks. I think I will go with the second approach and start my own full list this year but then be bound by applying a 25 name list rule to my own list in relation to my previous years list. Thanks again

1) Well, I choose to abide by the 25 rule, but I don't think it's necessary. Shadow Lists don't really have "rules", since it is not an official competition. However, it is generally believed that Shadow Lists should consist of Deathlist-y picks, but some people *cough* Sir Creep *cough* tend to not abide by this and then gloat about how better they are doing then the rest of us because they stuffed their team with Daily Mail cancer mums instead of international celebrities. 2) There is no difference between this thread and the "Your 2017 list" thread. The "Your 2017 list" thread was just created by a newbie who didn't know what they were doing (no offense). 3) Well, usually people send in their Shadow List for the Crowdsourced, but you, of course, CAN change it later on. I sent in mine for the Crowdsourced a couple of weeks ago, and have made some tweaks. Cheers thanks very much. My crowdsourced list really didn't abide by the 25 names rule at all so I'm just debating with myself if I should bother with a shadow list or just leave it but I accept that it's no big deal. So will decide bit later on. I agree with the committee having the 25 name rule for themselves whilst drawing up the list but I just approached crowdsourced as if it was a complete clean slate and thus up to me how many if any of the official list to carry forward as if I'm being asked to envisage a new list from scratch rather than in relation to an existing list. Anyway most of my names if not all are famous to some degree and definitely no cancer mum types either!

Couple of small points of clarification please Are Shadowlists by "convention" supposed to be bound by the keep 25 from the committee list rule? How if at all are Shadowlists different from the"your 2017 list" that also now exists and should your shadowlist basically be the same 50 as those you may have sent in to the crowdsourced deathlist or can it be different or tweaked? Is that in the spirit of the thread /idea? My crowdsourced list is very different from the official deathlist and certainly doesn't have 25 of the names retained. Many thanks

I'd urge you to get excited about the new three Crumble teams...! Gooseberry Crumble Blueberry Crumble Apricot Crumble I'm hoping my crumbles make an impression in their debut year!

Confirmation email now received and read. Many Thanks OP

Yeah I sent in my three Crumble teams a few week's back and mentioned it on forum. I just assumed OP had received them as they didn't question it when I posted it and just said crumbs lol! I took that as my confirmation rightly or wrongly!

I like the occasional longshot in life!

Anybody considered the lovely Duchess of Kent for any of their lists pools for 2017? She's 83 now and looks frail and doddery in some photos but less so in others.

He's on one of my lists and definitely worth others considering. He's far from a likely hit, more of a gamble or punt but one worth having in or considering to make up your list, Every list should have a few less likely punts or gambles in in my opinion.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadpool Well Stan Lee did create Deadpool... So perhaps we on here aptly should be a little more grateful to him?! But seriously Deadpool the film was a phenomenal success this year with a sequel in the pipeworks so strengthening the argument about how relevant Stan Lee is to contemporary popular culture.

Suing the magazine seems a bit extreme. Hey the difference between being able to walk a couple of steps and none at all could affect his benefits or summat. Maybe, but he won't have a leg to stand on in court! Oh, my coat! Ooh Naughty!!!!