paddyfool

Casual prediction: This year, the UK will see more deaths than in any year on record for the last hundred years (I'm not sure if we'll exceed the whopping 715,000 deaths seen in 1918 courtesy of WWI and the Spanish Flu, but I reckon 2020 will likely beat every year since then; for reference, the last year on record, 2018, saw 616,000 deaths).

An account of conditions at the frontline in London: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/nhs-junior-doctor-stay-at-home-coronavirus Stay home, everyone, please.

Yes, there have been other disasters in the past of comparable or greater severity. But this is happening now, and is an increasing problem for just about all the world at once. I wouldn't want to try and guess if the final death toll is more likely to be 100,000 or 1 million, but doesn't make sense to ignore it.

Here are some genuine reasons to be positive: - There are a number of promising treatments being trialled that could really alter the clinical picture for Covid19 patients. (We may see benefits from this in about a month or so). - More and more countries are now taking the right steps for prevention of transmission. (Should see benefits from this in two or three weeks). - Many people should actually be getting health benefits right now from reduced air pollution and from reduced transmission of every single pathogen with person to person spread. (With both immediate and long term benefits). - In about a year or so we should have a vaccine to roll out, at which point we can really stop worrying

Often, if you stick a frail person (eg the majority of octagenarians) on ventilation, you're doing so with the knowledge that you're never going to wean them off. And if you do wean them off, they'll be significantly more frail when they leave than they were on coming in (eg transitioning from being fully mobile to bedbound due to deconditioning). There are reasons why ICU is not open to everyone, beyond simple rationing; it's simply not a pathway to good health once you're already frail.

The flight map over the UK is probably just as bad, given that we haven't closed off flights to anyone

It was a long time ago, and a lot has changed since the poll started. In any event, it seems the majority of forumites guessed too low. If you were guessing again now, where would you reckon the eventual toll this year will be?

From a little reading on this, there do seem to be two distinct strains identified so far, called "L" and "S". To what extent if any different strains actually differ in severity is not yet clear, however

The hint was wrong - Italy reported 475 more deaths today :-(

Apparently there are two strains of this thing going around, and one is nastier than the other. Maybe only some of these countries got the more deadly strain?

... this joke is getting a bit old. Just so everyone's clear, the worldwide death toll is currently increasing day by day. (Up by over 800 yesterday)

Even if ready by autumn, scaling up to sufficient production will be a massive task. Still, it all sounds positive

Good morning! The global tally is now 200,000 confirmed cases, 8,000 deaths. No idea how many unconfirmed, of course. A hint of good news from Italy: the death rate may have stopped rising, being static at 350 per day for the past 3 days. The really good news, of course, will be when it starts falling.

Indeed, although with the number of punters in this game on one hit apiece, each of whom has two chances at a hit, the odds are good that our gang of 4 may still grow further before game end.

The death toll has now passed 7,000 worldwide. Italy, the worst affected country per capita if you believe the stats from Iran, is still seeing increasing numbers of both new cases and deaths each day. Many other countries are slowly ramping up their response.

Went for Le Pen. The French people on the list look to be more at risk from covid19 than most at present.

Both already taken (see the quim reaper's updated list on p7)

I've been wondering if some people standing to inherit from rich elderly relations might either deliberately or unconsciously be a bit casual about exposing them to potential infection.

600 deaths per day, currently. But if this keeps accelerating, it may not be long before we see 1000 deaths per day.

Let's have a chat later this week when we pass 8,000...

Impact of the covid19 outbreak on the obit section nd.

March 20th

What calculation do you base that estimate on?

I'm sorry for your loss. Steve, did you mean worldwide or in a specific country? Because worldwide we're getting into 400 deaths per day and rising at the moment - we will likely top 10,000 before the end of this month. In any event, I think the global death toll and sickness toll depend on a lot of factors: - How much we can slow the spread to avoid overwhelming health systems; and how long countries will be able to stick to practices that limit spread - How much we can nudge down the case mortality with tweaks to treatment protocols - How the virus evolves, including whether milder strains emerge which would effectively immunise vs the nasty strain (milder strains would be selected for by case-finding efforts as less easy to find), and how effectively it would evolve to avoid existing immunity, allowing reinfection - What proportion of patients have lasting lung damage, potentially leading to delayed attributable mortality - How much we can persuade people to adopt healthy behaviours that should boost their chance of survival (not smoking, for instance). - How soon we get a vaccine (although all expert opinion that I've heard reckons it's at least a year away) It could be the global mortality ends up anywhere from 5 figures to 8 figures imho (although the extreme ends of this range seem unlikely).