paddyfool

7 hits for this list vs 5 for the deathlist now. Don't know what the record hit total is for this list, but I imagine it will be broken this year.

So it's now basically a certainty that this election will be contested between two old white men (either Trump vs Sanders or Trump vs Biden). Point of trivia: if the democrats win and their candidate sees out at least half of their first term of office, this will be the first time the USA sees an octogenarian president.

OTOH viruses like this spread the worst during winter conditions, on the whole (since viruses left on surfaces live longer in the cold and the damp). If we can postpone widespread infection until warmer and sunnier times, it should then spread a little less easily and be a little more manageable. Right now, with the NHS massively short-staffed and underbedded with record breaking waits in the emergency department etc, is no time to be having a whole new viral outbreak.

Exactly one week after half term finished. Hardly seems like a surprise. Keep your hands clean, people, and if you do get a cough / fever, try not to infect anybody else. Meanwhile, the global confirmed death toll is almost at the 3 thousand mark (2995).

To be fair, even as a prisoner she probably won't die.

That's a bit boldly specific for one very unlikely case to trigger. No doubts there will be a big USA outbreak somewhere at some time however.

Far too late to make this change now :-) Also, who's to say the normal one per month hit rate won't be resumed shortly? If that's the case, we should expect about 14 hits this year...

King drol falls to a coup led by the new King Eesti! Longish may he reign!

The lead has narrowed slightly vs the actual list; it now stands at 6:4.

Perhaps just a new and very unfunny troll in town

And South Korea has declared emergency measures after confirmed cases there double to over 200 in a day. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51582186

Much more likely the latter, of course.

According to the Johns Hopkins figures, confirmed deaths are at 2,012 (with 74 thousand confirmed cases) https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Media cycle has got bored, and do have we. Reported cases and deaths per day have fallen slightly (but still nearly 100 deaths per day); global spread is slowly creeping up; China started reopening factories and reducing road blocks in recent days. Recent large studies continued to show about 2% mortality, increased rates in older patients (8% in those over 70, 0% in under-10s).

Confirmed deaths have now passed thd 1,500 mark (1,526, 95% of them in Hubei province). Confirmed cases 67,090 Recovered cases 8,399 A study of the first 8,000 or so cases suggests that male patients have a significantly higher case fatality rate than female, incidentally (4.45% vs 1.25%); no real data yet on how much this is due to different smoking rates (50% in men in china vs 2% in women) vs other health behaviour differences vs biological differences https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021675v1

Strongly agree. Not like it's anything new, though.

Tell me about it - I just decided to stop with the daily updates on my coronavirus death toll poll. I had no idea you were updating on this too! I actually came to this thread to flag up that the Ebola outbreak in the DRC is still rumbling on slowly, albeit at a greatly reduced extent. https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-february-2020-ebola-drc/en/

What may tell us more, down the line, will be analyses of the overall increase in mortality in Hubei province. That would cover both the direct effect of the virus and any indirect effect from health and care systems struggling in the context of sick staff, general overburdening demand, and barriers to treating patients effectively posed by the quarantine.

The current data from Johns Hopkins: 37,549 confirmed cases worldwide 813 deaths (now more than SARS, with the outbreak still well underway) 2,723 recovered. With regards to whether the true figures are significantly higher and being covered up... I'm certain that cover-ups happen, but I'm also certain that a ton of the conspiracy theorist stuff out there is thoroughly fake. For now, the official data is the only data we have. I'd predict it's 2 or 3 days now before the death toll moves into the next poll category. I don't think that those who went for the first two categories were being unrealistic, incidentally; just that they were banking on a much more contained outbreak than we've seen, or maybe sticking to the precedent seen with SARS.

I predict that we won't see a steady trend. Recently, the spread within China has been slowed by extensive quarantine measures... but factories, schools and assorted other currently closed facilities can't stay closed forever. Then there's the question of how long it will take until a new outbreak gets going in a big city somewhere else where they lack the same resources as China. Then there's the question of how much spring conditions will affect the spread when they come in, or how much tropical / summer conditions may affect current spread in other latitudes. And the question of whether all this surveillance will drive the evolution of a milder, less symptomatic strain that can slip through the net more easily but that also should also kill fewer people. A lot of unknowns, in short. Many of which can lead to significant changes in the rate of transmission and the rate of death, one way or the other.

34,888 confirmed cases worldwide (total increase 3,395, relative 10%) 724 deaths (total increase 86, relative 13%) 2,127 confirmed recovered (total increase 564, relative 36%) The majority of confirmed cases (72%) and the vast majority of deaths (97%) have been in Hubei province.

29% is probably as much of an overestimate as 2% is an underestimate, however, since there'll likely need to be a window of being asymptomatic for a few days before they rule someone as being "recovered". Also, there may be another category of people we aren't considering here - people with lasting lung damage or other long term complications who never fully recover, but aren't about to drop dead either. Although apparently only a small percentage of SARS patients experienced long term complications, luckily https://foundation.chestnet.org/patient-education-resources/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-sars/.

Worth noting for those calculations that the confirmed recovered figure is 1,563. With the other 28,000 or so who've neither died nor been confirmed as recovered being presumably either still sick, convalescent or undocumented.

Indeed. People like him and Carlo Urbani. Incidentally, there are now 31,493 confirmed cases, of which 4,824 are in critical condition. And there are 638 confirmed deaths.

Yang Hyong-sop