paddyfool

Possible outcomes at this stage: 1) No more deaths: YoungWillz wins 2) One more death: - If it's Ed Asner or Sidney Poitier, YoungWillz gets even more points and wins - If it's Bob Barker, de Cuellar, Jerry Stiller, Kirk Douglas, Nobby Stiles, or Olivia de Havilland, then Banana wins - If it's June Brown, Prunella Scales, d'Estaing, or Vera Lynn, then Sir Creep wins - If it's Little Richard, Loretta Lynn, Mikhail Gorbachev, or Stirling Moss, then The Quim Reaper wins - If it's Barbara Walters or Bob Dole, then alt obits guy wins - If it's anybody else, then I'm pretty sure YoungWillz still wins (although there may be a joker somewhere that could upset matters) 3) 2 or more deaths remaining: No idea who wins, but Banana is in an excellent position with regards to this outcome, as he could potentially win on 14 total deaths even without making any more hits.

Much kudos to the polish chef who put a handy narwhal tusk on the wall to good use, and all the others who helped take down this murderer.

Incidentally, any forecasts I make should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

Hyun Soong-jong for me, please

Actually, it's not all that improbable. Four of the other punters with scores of 4 or more put forward a prediction of 12 deaths, so may well slip further away rather than draw closer with another death this year. The greatest threat to your position may come from Banana, Sir Creep or The Quim Reaper, any of whom might win with the right death.

King Qtips chokes over the news of Clive James' death. Long live Queen theoldlady!

With the popularly picked Clive James bringing the total to the also popular prediction of 12 total deaths, alt obits guy and Phantom of the Midway have a very good round, boosting their scores by 5 apiece and jumping into equal 1st and 3rd respectively. YoungWillz remains on top of the table alongside alt obits guy, and still official 1st position based on the first tie-breaker rule of most total hits (which is now included in the table sorting). Overall, the majority of punters are now in the positives. Banana and Ebless are tied for most total hits on 8 apiece ,while YoungWillz and John Key are tied for fewest incorrect-so-far guesses on 2 apiece. Player Score Hits Change in score YoungWillz 7 7 2 alt obits guy 7 6 5 Phantom of the Midway 6 6 5 Banana 5 8 2 Grim Up North 5 5 4 Sir Creep 4 7 1 The Quim Reaper 4 6 1 Sean 4 5 4 Joey Russ 3 7 2 drol 3 5 0 John Key 3 3 0 Book 2 7 2 Torva Messor 2 6 0 Master Tech 2 4 2 En Passant 1 7 2 Dr_T 1 6 3 Bibliogryphon 0 5 3 gcreptile -1 5 0 SuperSowder -1 5 0 ebless -2 8 2 Great Uncle Bulgaria -2 7 2 BlackLivio -2 4 1 Squonk -4 5 2 The Cosgroves -4 4 1 theoldlady -4 2 4 msc -5 6 0 Zefph -5 3 1 nantonian2013 -6 4 2 The Old Crem -7 6 3 Gooseberry Crumble -8 6 0

Gone for "That's your lot". Although Dole or Douglas may also have been a decent pick, at the rough rate of one death per month, the chances of there being no more deaths by the 1st of Jan are higher than the chances of my successfully guessing which of the 38 candidates left on the list may be next.

Josip Manolic for me please.

Does anyone else find it weird how elderly US politicians have got all of a sudden? Even more so than the obese 73 year old in the White House, there's also the 78 year old Bernie Sanders (with his recent heart attack), the 77 year old Michael Bloomberg, and the 76 year old Joe Biden in the running to oppose him. If any one of these four individuals (including Trump) gets elected next year, they'll be the oldest US president at the time of election in history [the relatively spry 70-year-old Elizabeth Warren falls a little shy of this mark, however; Reagan was 73 when he was reelected].

I wonder if he may be angling for a VP position...

Trump accuses Clinton of deliberately losing election so that he could be impeached: https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-accuses-clinton-of-deliberately-losing-election?utm_social-type=owned&utm_brand=tny&mbid=social_facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1nM0drqpiS7uuWDNemfDcnvVk5yZOwIbWtlMEUjJPxWKc_1JucqMV5Rxk (Yes, I know it's a South African tyre / greek mythological creature / seated anger)

My highest hit so far. In hindsight, I've no idea why I put her where I did. Almost certainly I'll be out of the top 10 now.

Kirk Douglas. Although we're getting close to "no more for the year" being the sensible choice imho.

Agreed. Even if the house pass something, there will still be many years ahead of hammering out trade deals etc, plus Leavers and Remainers will continue to blame each other for many further years about things being generally shitty in the aftermath of severing this many ties with half of our allies and all of our neighbours. Literally the only voter I know who'll have got what they wanted post Brexit ref was one guy who voted Leave specifically to fuck the UK over. And of course there'll be a rejoin campaign. Although personally I'm more tempted just to get out of the UK (even though Brexit makes that a little more challenging).

You've actually had 3 hits (John McCririck in position 24 gets you a further 2 points, on top of the 16 for position 10 and the 12 for position 14).

I'm pretty sure that Drol's got this in the bag now.

King Drol is dead. Long live King QTips!

As Leah leaves this world, the scores go all over the shop. Jokers, total estimate bonuses, total hit bonuses - you name it, most players do well this round, some by substantial amounts. Youngwillz remains in the lead and increases his score despite losing out on the estimate bonus, but others are closing in, and 14 out of the 30 punters are now out of the negatives. EDIT: Also, congrats to Gooseberry Crumble for escaping the bottom of the table. (Incidentally, two of the points gained by one player are on account of my correcting a prior mistake where they still had the 2 point penalty for being more than 5 out when they shouldn't have done. If you can spot who it is, I'll be mightily impressed). Player Score Hits Change in score YoungWillz 5 6 2 The Quim Reaper 3 6 3 John Key 3 3 4 Sir Creep 3 7 2 Banana 3 7 2 drol 3 4 4 alt obits guy 2 5 5 Torva Messor 2 6 3 Grim Up North 1 4 1 Joey Russ 1 6 0 Phantom of the Midway 1 5 3 Sean 0 4 5 Book 0 6 5 Master Tech 0 4 5 gcreptile -1 5 2 En Passant -1 7 4 SuperSowder -1 5 4 Dr_T -2 5 4 Bibliogryphon -3 4 0 BlackLivio -3 4 2 ebless -4 7 2 Great Uncle Bulgaria -4 6 3 msc -5 6 3 The Cosgroves -5 4 2 Zefph -6 3 0 Squonk -6 4 2 nantonian2013 -8 3 0 theoldlady -8 1 1 Gooseberry Crumble -8 6 3 The Old Crem -10 5 0

I'd agree with one a month, so 12 or 13 in total. However, with no dead certs but plenty of low hanging fruit I wouldn't be surprised by anything in the 11 to 15 range.

And with Baker making it an even 10, the field of scores gets a tad closer, with a fair bit of movement in the table despite only 4 punters predicting this outcome. YoungWillz slips a bit but remains on top of the table for now, sitting pretty on 3 points; but with this chasing field, he could well be overtaken with just one more death. Joey Russ and Sir Creep both move up into equal second on score and into equal first on total hits. Those who predicted 15 total deaths go up by 2 points for getting within 5 deaths of the total, and Drol goes up by 1 point for getting within 1 death of the total. Player Score Hits Change in score YoungWillz 3 5 -2 Joey Russ 1 6 5 Sir Creep 1 6 3 Banana 1 6 0 Grim Up North 0 4 0 The Quim Reaper 0 5 0 John Key -1 2 0 drol -1 3 1 Torva Messor -1 5 2 Phantom of the Midway -2 4 0 gcreptile -3 5 0 alt obits guy -3 4 0 Bibliogryphon -3 4 0 Sean -5 3 0 En Passant -5 6 0 Book -5 5 0 Master Tech -5 3 0 BlackLivio -5 3 0 SuperSowder -5 4 0 Zefph -6 3 0 ebless -6 6 0 Dr_T -6 4 2 The Cosgroves -7 3 0 Great Uncle Bulgaria -7 5 0 msc -8 5 0 nantonian2013 -8 3 2 Squonk -8 4 2 theoldlady -9 1 0 The Old Crem -10 5 0 Gooseberry Crumble -11 5 2

I think it'll all get a little bit closer at the top and bottom. Expect an update tomorrow.

King Arsewipe, we hardly knew ye. Long live King Drol!

So running with the same three loosely themed teams in sequence perpetually with minimal tweaks wasn't a winning strategy. Who knew? (To be fair, I intended to be slightly less lazy in the unlikely event that I ever got to the final two).

9 deaths from 9 months is pretty respectable, certainly.