paddyfool

King The Red Death's long reign is over. Having seen off many assassins, he mysteriously drops dead after upsetting some South American gentlemen. King philheybrookbay steps up ... And hey, he keels over almost as soon as the crown touches his head. A poison arrow frog hops out of the crown's velvet lining as it rolls across the floor, startling the courtiers still further. King adrian0719 ensures the crown is cleaned and inspected thoroughly before his own coronation.

Update to Bucket Kicker's stats: with 104 more days this year, and being 4 deaths short of a record 18, the required rate for a new record would now be a pretty average one death every 26 days. (The rate so far this year having been one death every 19 days). Imho, once you factor in winter mortality and the COVID effect, the odds on a new record have shifted to better than even.

Indeed. And given the historical average from recent previous years, we'd only expect one death every 25 or 30 days. Otoh, there are plenty of low-hanging fruit yet, none of them are getting any younger, and roughly 34 / 38 of them live in a country that's soon to begin its annual winter mortality rate increase. Never mind the effects of COVID, both direct and indirect (through health service disruption etc). For instance, the overall weekly mortality rate in the USA is currently about 15-20% higher than previous years (based on eyeballing the graph here, although it would help if they had a long term weekly average line as well as the "is this week in excess of what we'd normally expect" line: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). Could go either way.

Currently we're 130k off the official million. If we average 6000 deaths per day we'll get there in 22 days, if 5000 per day we'll get there in 26. I'd reckon sometime between September 23rd and 30th. EDIT: Maybe a bit earlier if we see a second wave in Europe.

Thank you for running this PB. As one of those calling a halt, it's not that I'm fed up, so much as I think the game has run its time. And congrats indeed to GUN!

That was a rapid first hit. Congrats. 1. Tom Smith 2. Alex Trebek 3. David Gulpilil 4. Nobby Stiles 5. Susan Bayh 6. Ruth Bader Ginsberg Took 5 of the least popular names from the inverse dead pool list and tacked on the notorious RBG. Not exactly in depth research, but we'll see how they do.

11 for Saturday 3 for Sunday 0 for Monday And then I'm also done. Thank you for running this!

Friday 15

Thursday 10 I'm getting worse at postijg guesses regularly. Oh well.

I probably should be able to name more than this... but I've searched my mind, and there can be only one.

Tuesday 15

Monday 5

Sunday 4

Saturday 4

... That prediction suggested a similar toll around the 20th of February to the total toll so far. It's out by 6 months.

We could switch to the global daily figure, as stated on the "yesterday" tab on worldometer. 1 point if you get within 100, 2 if within 10, 4 if bang on?

Friday 12

Oh Canada!

Small query: going back to the original post, what do people think of splitting the world's countries into a tier-based league table based on life expectancy? In particular, do punters from countries below the top tier (eg the USA in tier 2, or Indonesia in tier 3) think this is fair? Btw, you can also get a good visual representation of where different countries sit from this map: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=map

What makes you say that? The global confirmed COVID deaths tally is stuck at about 6000 per day, same as it's been for months. It seems to have ebbed in the UK for now, partly due to a local change in the definition of a COVID death, but most people (more than 99%) live in the rest of the world. Overall mortality rates are still higher than normal in the USA, Brazil etc, and a vaccine is still many months away (unless you're in Russia, and fond of high stakes gambling).

Thursday 15

Wednesday 10

Because of course, what's needed most is a massive rebranding exercise with a side order of disruption...

Tuesday 25

Bermudez please!