prussianblue

Prunella and Timothy are due to make a public appearance at a Northamptonshire canal boat rally in late June. They must be reasonably confident she'll be able to manage it. https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/business/tv-favourites-prunella-scales-and-timothy-west-to-open-historic-braunston-narrowboat-rally-3683259 P.S. Pete Waterman is going too!

In addition to these explosions, nearby the Russians have bombed the main bridge across the Dniester estuary, greatly hampering communications between Odesa and Budjak, the western part of Odesa Oblast that borders Moldova and Romania and is almost severed from the rest of Ukraine by the estuary. Could this be the prelude to an amphibious landing of Budjak by the Russians? It could be a useful distraction for any attack on Odesa itself. It's a flat, thinly-populated area, and probably not that well defended. Its strategic value is debatable, but it would deprive Ukraine of more coastline, colour more of the map in red, and would perhaps be useful as a means of getting to Moldova from the south to aid Transnistrian forces. Of course, given the state of the Black Sea Fleet at this point, an amphibious landing may well be sheer fantasy.

All that training for Ali (2001) has clearly not been forgotten.

Surprised this hasn't gotten more publicity. I knew it was on the cards but only just heard it had actually happened. Does a pre-nup not exist in Italian law? I find it surprising that he would let the inheritance-based fears of his children stand in his way of an actual marriage.

Saw John Simpson comparing it to the Winter War between the USSR and Finland. Much larger and more powerful state thinks it'll easily conquer a neighbour, but faces fierce resistance and gets bogged down with weather, terrain and logistical problems. He was suggesting that the outcome of this war may well be similar, a face-saving peace treaty, the invaded country swallowing some territorial losses to maintain independence for the vast majority of the country. As with the Finns post-WWII, Ukraine could pledge to become a neutral state (so no NATO, EU aspirations less clear-cut). This all seems logical, but it really all depends how logical Putin is feeling!

Roman general and statesman Gaius Julius Caesar died on this day 2066 years ago, aged 55.

Kadyrov seemingly is or was north of Kyiv with the Chechan contingent. Is it too much to hope for that the Ukrainians get lucky or the indiscriminate Russian bombardment generates a friendly fire incident?

In a more worrying Belarusian development, seemingly the Russians have been putting heavy pressure on Lukashenko to properly join the war and invade too, and there's some suggestion that he may do so tonight. All speaks to the Russians struggling for manpower, when you add it to the rules for conscription being toughened up, Putin's appeal for foreign fighters (e.g. Syrians sent by an indebted Assad), and the sizeable cohort of Chechens that are already involved. On the BBC last night a reporter was casually walking past a couple of bodies lying in the snow that apparently had Chechen ID on them.

Which makes sense, as while the Chernobyl plant is (just) within Ukraine, it was Belarus that got the worst of the fallout thanks to the prevailing winds.

The history of Vikings in the Slavic lands (Varangians) is fascinating. The two are deeply linked, the original Rus were of Norse origin. There was territorial expansion and trade along the great rivers of Russia. With the cross-Black Sea cultural exchanges they also go heavily involved in Byzantine affairs, and some emperors had elite Varangian guard units. You also get the Christianisation of Russia through this connection, hence why they are Orthodox and were so intent on ultimately gaining Constantinople through Balkan expansion.

You really have to wonder about Russian long-term strategy when they continue to reduce Mariupol and other settlements to ruins and brutalise their residents (the ones this war is meant to be about liberating). Bombing civilian targets to smithereens in Syria is one thing, frankly what does the average Russian care about some far away Arabs living in bombed-out buildings? However, presumably Russia wants to annexe and integrate these Ukrainian lands into Russia proper, and ultimately derive some benefit from them. Given the circumstances, the population aren't going to be loyal citizens generating healthy tax revenues any time soon.

I'm picturing TV schedules full of Come Outside and Norman Wisdom films.

Haha, a rapid flurry of people of a similar age all posting. I've jokingly said that Come Outside was like a Soviet kids programme. She was always wandering around some factory. Possibly the most exposure '90s British children got to industry.

Sad to see this. Not because of Open All Hours, which I think is absolute shit, but because she was Auntie Mabel in '90s kids classic Come Outside.

Michael's clearout raised £847,000, against a presale estimate of £314,000. That included £125,250 for his gold Rolex. Even the Muppets jacket made £2,000!

At 69 he's already exceeded the average Russian male life expectancy. I dare say the deaths of thousands of teenage conscripts on his orders will be dragging that average a bit further down.

An interesting map which aims to counter the idea of large territorial gains and show a more accurate summary of the Russian advance. In short, they control roads and the settlements along them, but not the land in between. The defence analyst I saw that shared it compared it to the Axis forces in Yugoslavia and the Soviets in Afghanistan, two situations where large insurgencies kept those occupation forces very busy before they were ultimately forced to withdraw.

Re. option 2, Anonymous claimed that people in the FSB gave the Ukrainian government a tip-off about a Chechen hit squad looking for Zelenskyy. If there are people in the Russian security apparatus who are willing to aid their supposed enemy, then perhaps there is appetite for a coup. Let's face it, unless you are Putin or his hardline coterie, it must be obvious that Russia has nothing to gain from this but a bombed-out wasteland full of insurgents, at the cost of thousands dead and an economy in ruins. Khrushchev was removed through a palace coup, and Gorbachev was subject to an attempt, so it can happen.

5 days in and they've gradually secured the Azov coast/land bridge to Crimea, and are tentatively creeping up the Dnieper. Still no significant progress in the rest of the Donbas, and Kharkiv is holding them at bay. I think the main thing to note are the advances towards Kyiv from the east. Clearly going to attempt an encirclement if they can get that far.

Well, his regular troops haven't been up to the job so far.

Fuck off you massive twat.

Meanwhile, Russia is having great success in alienating even friendly nations. Greece now very angry about the deaths of Greeks in Mariupol, and various countries in eastern Europe have closed their airspace to Russian planes over the course of the day.

There were reports before the invasion that the Russian top brass had doubts about the invasion, perhaps because they have a passing acquaintance with reality and understood that Ukraine is vast and the population not exactly enthusiastic about being bombed and turned into refugees. Interesting how there's been no big breakout from the Donbass. The Crimean breakout has gone okay but nothing astounding. Kyiv and Kharkiv have proven tougher nuts to crack.

He does seem to have reached that stage in a dictator's life where he's isolated, only has contact with a select group of yes men, and has developed a Messiah complex. The ranting about the Ukrainian government being drug addicts and Nazis wasn't exactly a sign of him being of sound mind.

The invasion hasn't failed exactly, but progress has definitely not been anywhere near as rapid as they would have liked or probably expected. I did see some comments about how Russian troops were surprised they weren't being greeted as liberators by Ukrainians. After all, their Jewish president is apparently a genocidal Nazi.