The Old Crem

Clacton is probably the perfect seat for him if he does want to win. Demographicly and politically it all fits for several reasons.

That would put the turnout at 60%.

Was finally reported by the Mirror today - even given the push notification treatment. https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/britains-talent-semi-finalist-32-32944144

Says leading figures on the BBC press office so they will allow party representatives,

This weekend’s canvassing reports for all parties suggesting it could be a record low turnout, As low as 55% prehaps!

Very sad news.

Everton say he is very unwell

I would be amazed if they tried to parachute Shaun Woodward back in. I wonder if they want to put the candidate they designated to replace Abbott in Edmonton now she is safe from the chop.

Labour leaked ages ago it wasn’t going to include Lord abolition in its manifesto.

Could be a lot of elderly new peers. It is assumed Harriet Harman, Rosie Winterton, Margaret Beckett and Margaret Hodge will all be offered ones by Keir Starmer.

Justin Tomlinson (Swindon North) or Marcus Jones (Nuneaton) could be the first Minster to lose if the Tories are going to have a really bad night.Their seats tend to be early declarers. All the 2019 times here with previous ones there as well. https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/4/declaration-times Times will be more similar to 2017/2019 than 2015 with no local elections coinciding.

Seats that the Tories win without Tactical Voting but not with Tactical Voting. Chippenham (Nic Puntis - new candidate) North Cornwall (Scott Mann) Cotswolds South (James Gray) Dorking and Horley (Marisa Heath - new candidate) Ely and East Cambridgeshire (Lucy Frazer) Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt) Harrogate and Knaresborough (Andrew Jones) Henley and Thame (Caroline Newton - new candidate) Lewes (Maria Caulfield) Newton Abbott (Anne Marie Morris) Surrey Heath (To be confirmed) Sutton and Cheam (Tom Drummond - new candidate) Tunbridge Wells (To be confirmed) Wokingham (Lucy Demers - new candidate) Seats that the Tories win with Tactical Voting but not with without it Bicester and Woodcock (Rupert Harrison - new candidate) Chichester (Gillian Keegan) Essex North West (Kemi Badenoch) Hampshire North West (Kit Malthouse) Northamptonshire South (To be confirmed) Surrey East (Claire Coutinho) Tewkesbury (Laurence Robertson) Monmouthshire (David TC Davies) Liz Truss would lose Norfolk South West to Labour on both models. Suella Braverman would bold Fareham and Waterloovile and Rishi Sunak would hold Richmond and Northallerton on both models. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/DataTables_VIMay2024.xlsx?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

On some of the more bad polls for the Tories (You Gov MRP in April for example) Bottomley is at risk as well. 35 years between Marion Fellows and her challenger Pamala Nash - will look into in the others age gaps later.

Braverman, Patel and/or Truss losing would be just as big.

The Tories are now shameless they won’t care about that.

If my dad’s reaction is anything to go by then the Tories will be absolutely delighted Keir Starmer has allowed Diane Abbott to stand again. It will be mentioned every day until election day by them.

Keir Starmed backs Diane Abbott to stand again. Guess that is the end of the theory the Sun will back Labour like they did under Blair considering their editorial calling her a racist in today’s paper.

Oh I think Labour would bend it. His views are more Labour than Elphicke’s are. Several others who stood against Labour in 2019 are now in / back in the party.

Tory MP for Newcastle Under - Lyme standing down - another wave of Tory standing down coming?

Solihull is probably safe enough now a days for the Tories that him standing won’t cost them the seat - as well as it not being fully clear who is best placed to best the Tories there between Labour and the Lib Dem’s.

Linda Nolan.

I just feel like the election will end up something like Labour 40% the Tories 33/34%. No real evidence just a feeling that it is going to be like 2015 again. (Which was the first election I really followed every poll and moment).