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  1. maryportfuncity

    General Election 2024?

    So, things are kicking off, positions are being adopted etc. etc. If one thing's prompted this thread more than owt else it's hearing on the news a couple of days back that the average age of Conservatives announcing they won't stand again is around 52, a full twenty years younger than the average age of Labour retirees. Deserting Tories include George Eustice (51), Red Wall darling Dehenna Davison (29) , Chloe Smith (40), Andrew Percy (45) and - perhaps biggest surprise - William Wragg (34). Granted you can find inidividual reasons, like kids and boundary changes but some of these have the youth and talent to ride out Tory tides and play the long game. I'm wondering if the private polling done by all political parties is starting to tell on their resolve as the pollsters come to Conservative Party HQ and say "They fucking hate us!" Similarly, Starmer's long-game appears to be working but I'm wondering what the odds at Corals would be if you bet on seeing "Starmer" and "Charisma" on a newspaper front page in the next year. Likely to be tactical voting on a hitherto unimagined scale to skew any pollsters plans to call it and a few other wildcards in there (like the way the Tories handle the dwindling fortunes of the chubster who preceded the Truss calamity). A veritable Deathlist banter-fest, then, Let's get among it! My best guess is late Summer 2024 election, thin Labour outright majority, unruly left wing backbenchers scuppering Starmer, the Lib Dems suspicious after the coalition calamity forcing voting reform as the price of any confidence and supply deal and the SNP, reduced but still influential, proving a wild card. And Rhys-Mogg providing the Portillo moment on the day.

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