MrWonderful

Well, to be fair, no major news organization (in the U.S., anyway) has called PA yet. But it's been blatantly obvious since the early AM hours of Wednesday where it was headed in PA. The outstanding vote was/is practically all the early mail-in vote, which everyone knew would skew heavily Democratic. And as the results kept coming in, there was and has been demonstrated data that shows Biden getting about 80-85% in the Democratic stronghold counties like Philadelphia, and he's even getting a sizable majority in the rural Republican counties because, well, the vast majority of Republican voters voted on Election Day. The votes still left to be counted are going to skew heavily Democratic, and that's just a fact. It looks like Biden will end up winning the state by about 80-100K, well outside the margin where a recount could happen.

Biden just took the lead in PA.

Biden has closed to within about 22K in PA. Just a matter of time. As soon as he takes the lead there, I'd imagine the race gets called.

I am not ruling out PA, actually, for Biden, and GA is very much in play for Biden. In fact, I think he wins the Peach State.

Biden has, indeed, increased his lead in Wisconsin, as some Kenosha ballots have come in. He's now up by over 20K votes in Wisconsin, by .6% in the state overall. In Michigan, meanwhile, Biden has cut the lead to about 27K votes. Biden now -300.

Biden just went back up by about 11K votes in Wisconsin, as Green Bay's absentee vote came in. 95% reporting. Kenosha's absentee count still needs to come in, and that is also expected to net the Democrats some more votes.

Biden has just moved to -200 in betting markets. What a roller-coaster that was last night, with Biden going up -250 initially as the early returns looked good in Florida before we saw the Miami-Dade count. Trump got up by as much as -500 last night, and then stabilized to around -300 for much of the night. When Arizona was called by Fox News for Biden, it became more like -200. And now it's flipped back to Biden. As I was saying, I think the math looks favorable for Biden in both Michigan and Georgia. And if he holds that scant lead in Wisconsin, it really looks good for Biden. Not assuming anything right now, though. This is far from over.

Apparently there are about 410K votes to be counted in Georgia, almost all from Atlanta and the suburbs and mail-in votes. Trump is up by about 102K. That would mean that Biden would need to get just under 63% of the remaining vote to win, and that seems do-able. It's going to be super-close either way.

Biden trims the lead in Michigan to just over 64K votes. Still only 63% reporting in the Detroit area. Biden just picked up about 150K votes in this latest vote dump.

They probably called it a little early, but it's still looking quite good for Biden. Would be truly stunning if he lost that state.

Biden's lead in Nevada is down to 0.8% with 85% of the vote in. Most of the votes left are supposed to be from the Las Vegas area, thought to be a Democratic stronghold, but the numbers there have been tightening all night. That said, apparently there are still about 75K absentee ballots outstanding, which should skew for the Democrats. What a crazy night. No sleep for me.

I don't know if you have AZ in Biden's column but that was called for Biden already. From my count, he needs 2 of the 4 remaining of MI/WI/PA/GA. Obviously, pulling out a win in WI would change the calculus considerably. There are 5 counties still outstanding in WI, all red counties. However, these are going to be absentee/early votes, so that doesn't necessarily mean they will skew Republican. With the current lead so scant, some 10K votes, it really could go either way in WI. GA looks like it will be razor-thin when it's all said and done. I think MI looks good for Biden but we'll see. PA could be more problematic for Biden, given the math, though not impossible. This is clearly the craziest election since 2000, and maybe even crazier. Though I don't think we will have a 36-day wait this time to find out who the winner is.

Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin. He needs to win 2 of the remaining 4 of MI/WI/PA/GA to win, assuming Trump holds NC and Biden holds NV. This is truly a nail-biter.

Bovada has Biden -200 right now. Was -180 last night. Not gigantic movement, but something.

Definitely will have him in my Top 50 next year, if he makes it. His face is noticeably gaunt, and although he's still mentally very sharp, his voice is more hoarse-sounding as well. At least he showed he could stand up during the interview, but he unfortunately doesn't look good.

Gay guy here also. As the clock strikes midnight on Election Day here in California where I live, here are some late thoughts by me as it relates to the election: --Florida does a good job counting the votes quickly, including the early/mail-in vote. We might have a sense of where the race is by 10PM EST, 2 hours after the Florida polls close. If Florida goes blue, it's over. It's a total must-win for Trump. --At the same time as the Florida results come in, I'll be looking closely at North Carolina, where polls actually close 30 minutes earlier than in Florida. This is another one that Trump pretty much has to win, and Biden has held an extremely narrow polling lead for the better part of two months there. Note that there's a Democratic Governor there, and that there's a Senate race also going on where the Republican incumbent appears to be in trouble. --If it's looking good for Trump in Florida and North Carolina around 10PM EST, then it's going to be nervous time for the Biden camp, because then a Pennsylvania loss could really mean Trump has substantial odds to win the election. Most reliable election models have Biden's PA lead between 4-5 points, but if there's a 3-point polling error (like what happened in 2016), the vote count might be close enough to where there are enough early/mail-in ballots to throw the numbers in doubt, which is where SCOTUS could come in. I do not think that SCOTUS would outright steal the election for Trump, as some on the left are fearing. However, if the race is legitimately close and if there are some discrepancies on enough mail-in ballots (maybe they were filled in wrong, maybe they were signed incorrectly, whatever), I could see SCOTUS ruling favorably for Trump. This is the danger for Democrats. This is basically Trump's path: he has to win FL and NC and then get an upset in PA. --Even if Trump did the above, he'd still need to avoid Georgia or Texas turning blue, which are both possible. Arizona is also a good chance for Biden, who has polled slightly ahead there for months. All told, Biden is in a great position, up 8 nationally and seemingly up by at least 4 points in Pennsylvania, the most likely state to be the tipping point. Still, after 2016, I'm not ruling anything out, even though Hillary Clinton was only up by 3 points nationally on Election Day. As I said, we should know within the first 2 hours if Trump has a shot.

RIP to one of my all-time favorites.

Nicklaus is still active on social media, even in video form on Twitter. Think he's OK for now.

Yes, this is all accurate. Wisconsin was the outlier; Trump actually canceled campaign events there in the run-up to the election, as his own people didn't believe it to be in play. The polling looks fantastic for Biden, given how close we are to the election. Even if there's a margin of 2 points towards Trump that they aren't accounting for -- and supposedly FiveThirtyEight's model made changes this time around -- the fact remains that Biden is still up by about 7-8 points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If he just wins those 3, it's over. So Trump has to at least win one of those, plus defend several states where he's either down or it's a virtual dead heat. For example, if Trump loses Florida, it's over. If he loses Ohio (probably slightly more likely than Florida for Trump), it's over. We're 25 days away and Biden has almost a 10-point national lead. Unless there is an absolute bombshell coming, Biden is in a fantastic position, even with the Republicans doing everything they can to suppress the vote. Even if they get Amy Coney Barrett confirmed, is the Supreme Court really going to invalidate all mail-in/absentee voting? That's pretty much what it's going to take, and at that point the United States is no longer a constitutional republic. We just go straight to dictatorship. And at that point, I might have to stand on guard for thee!

I think it would be a mistake to drop David Crosby and Dick Cheney. Crosby has such a poor health history and said himself that he thinks he only has a few years left and that he would have a heart attack in the next couple of years. Assuming he sees 2021, he seems like he has at worst a 1/3 chance to die before 2022. That's good enough for me. As for Cheney, his own heart transplant doctor said in March of 2012 that it would not be unreasonable for him to live another 10 years. Well, it will have been 9 years in March of 2021, and he turns 80 next January 30th. To me, he has very limited time left, and should stay on the list. We aren't talking about a dude who could get over an illness and then live another 10-20 years. He's very likely to croak in the next couple of years. As much as I hate typing this, Betty White has to stay on the list. She showed noticeable mental slippage at the end of last year, though if she maintained what I saw at the end of last year that's still pretty good for a 99-year-old. Still, we haven't seen much of her this year other than puff pieces in the media and she wasn't even directly quoted in the latest one I saw. Harry Belafonte looks extremely frail in recent videos, so to me he shouldn't be dropped. As of now, these are some new names I'd be considering strongly for next year: --Carlos Menem is 90, has been hospitalized 4 times this year, and recently married his ex-wife. --Paul Westphal may not be a big-enough name, but he was diagnosed with brain cancer/glioblastoma in August. Probably 50/50 he dies by the end of '21. --I don't see how Rush Limbaugh isn't an obvious add to the DL. --Another thing I hate typing, but Sean Connery has looked increasingly frail and just listed that French villa for $34MM. I don't think he has much time left. --Shannen Doherty would be a big hit because she's so young, under 50. Late-stage metastatic breast cancer.

I don't have a link for this, but I am watching the NHL Draft, and with the Ottawa Senators having the 3rd overall pick, they showed Alex Trebek actually reading off a clue from the Jeopardy set, and then announcing the player that was chosen, Tim Stutzle. (Definitely wasn't a recorded message.) He still doesn't look frail to me. Think he makes 2021. EDIT: I suppose he could have recorded it, given that it's possible he could have recorded a few possibilities as to which player it would be and then they went with that. I guess with the pick being 3rd overall, that's possible. It would be harder to do that if the pick was, say, 20th or something. Anyway, just thought it was notable. Carry on.

I still don't think Trebek is quite there. I think he survives the year. Still doesn't look incredibly frail to me, though he's of course affected. But I guess it could go downhill quickly.

The Cardinals lost more than a game to the Padres tonight. They lost their legendary pitcher Bob Gibson as well. Hit #17 for me. RIP.

I don't think this is a notable-enough death for the COVID-19 thread, but former Dodgers and Yankees World Series winner Jay Johnstone has passed away of COVID-19 complications at the age of 74. He had been suffering from dementia for a few years and died in a nursing home. RIP. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29996720/jay-johnstone-two-world-series-champion-popular-prankster-mlb-dies-74

I remember watching NFL films as a kid and marveled at "the razor-sharp cutting ability of Gale Sayers." What a talent he was before injuries cut short his career, a talent so undeniable that he still became a Hall Of Famer. Hit #16 for me, also. RIP.