InquilineKea

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6398

He has cardiovascular disease though. Which is not a good sign. He doesn't really show any signs of drastically changing his diet, so the cardiovascular disease is only going to be an inexorable downward spiral for him. The hospital procedures will simply make his health curve more approximately approximate his maximum potential enveloped health curve. Some nonagenarians with cardiovascular disease can be surprisingly robust. But they can drop over dead at any moment. Lots of nonagenarians with cardiovascular disease (especially ones who are active/athletic) can suddenly drop over dead without an extended period of frailty.

Barbara and Jimmy Carter both looked quite old and beyond their years even 20 years ago - it's amazing how little they've seemed to age since then.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324879504578601522045463696.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23193589

this feels like suharto all over again

http://worldnews.nbc...frica-trip?lite

People with dementia can go on for years. But maybe we'll learn more in the coming days?

Wow. Here's a video of him discussing the recent European Economic Crisis (in English) just on October 30th: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_mji_h3GXE

Vo Nguyen Giap today: http://www.tuoitrenews.vn/cmlink/tuoitrenews/politics/military-delegation-visits-general-vo-nguyen-giap-1.80343 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/aug/25/vietnamese-war-hero-100th-birthday

It's like a seesaw. Whenever he gets out of his coma, he witnesses the bleak world, which makes him so depressed that he gets heart problems and falls into a coma again. And then when he's back in that coma, his condition gets better - to the point that he wakes up again.

lol that applies for half the list

Hahaha I was thinking of doing the exact same thing!

Wow, I can't believe it. It always seemed like he and Jimmy Carter could have gone on forever. http://news.yahoo.com/george-h-w-bush-wife...dGVzdAM-;_ylv=3 And from that time article.. With that all said, he's not in any immediate danger. He's still definitely expecting to hold on for at least several more years.

Oh wow - very nice stats. Pretty much confirms my impressions (although there's definitely a selection effect, since coke-users are more likely to come from a population that's more irresponsible). Nndb lists both Obama and Bush as having coke habits (so their standards of "coke habit" are pretty low), but since their coke habits were far in the past, I doubt it affects their current health. I look forward to seeing your next analysis!

Well, this forum is somewhat predicated on an obsession with systematizing and statistics. So "autistic contributions" are just as valid. Canadian_Paul's list could just be as "autistic", for all that matters.

http://news.google.com/archivesearch It's actually somewhat interesting to use this to track down the historical last days of various famous figures, such as Truman, Eisenhower, Tito, and Franco. You just need to type in their name and search around the period that they died. In many cases, their condition fluctuated many times before death. Sometimes, they seemed to almost amazingly recover from some brutal ailments. And it's also interesting to read the news articles about them 2 years before they died. Herbert Hoover, for example, was described as being "in very good health for a man his age" when he was 88. For example, with Truman, you can see this: http://news.google.com/archivesearch?q=har...&lnav=hist2 With Eisenhower: http://news.google.com/archivesearch?q=dwi...&lnav=hist9 Hoover: http://news.google.com/archivesearch?q=her...&lnav=hist4

Feel free to contribute. This might help in predicting the future mortality of various famous people given some event happening to them (hip fracture, their wife dies, they end up hospitalized, they get open heart surgery, etc.). Obviously, many predictions will turn out wrong. Sometimes, the healthiest nonagenarians just end up suddenly dying. But these predictions work as long as they're more accurate than intuition. For the record though, I don't consider hazard ratios to be very significant until they're over 2 (and combined with other hazard ratios). == Some people seem to have a period of extended frailty before death, whereas others seem to suddenly (and surprisingly) die. People who have lots of small strokes/heart attacks seem to become frail quite early, and often live with it for years before death (especially true if they have heart failure). == With respect to the famous, we would expect somewhat lower mortality rates than average simply because the famous are unusually likely to be "successful" (and "successful" often implies being rich and socially connected). Furthermore, if they lose their spouse, it's easier for them to get someone else to hang around with (Cronkite and Chen Ning Yang both remarried at very advanced ages). == Surprisingly, hip fractures can cause surprisingly increased death rates: http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/825363-overview. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=A...mp;searchtype=a Especially in centenarians: http://www.slideshare.net/olivercw/hip-fra...in-centenarians Increased death rates among widowers: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-...ar-widowed.html (yes I know dailymail is not credible, but the facts seem valid here) http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1982801/ But remarriage drastically decreases them: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/...,954902,00.html Prevalence of pain among those in their last few months: http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-11-03/bay-...lderly-patients (some people will complain about it more - it appears that those with arthritis are especially more likely to do so) Increased mortality rates of those with rheumatoid arthritis: http://rawarrior.com/mortality-and-rheumatoid-arthritis/ Anemia: (hazard ratio of ~1.4-2) http://www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/181/3-4/151 http://www.medpagetoday.com/Geriatrics/Gen...eriatrics/15244 http://www.acpjc.org/Content/151/6/issue/A...9-151-6-013.htm "Strong will" (whatever that means): [weak will has hazard ratio of ~1.64] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2723425/ Frailty and death in China: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2667569/ Diagnosis of diabetes at older ages (not as bad as diagnosis at earlier ages): http://ageing.oxfordjournals.org/content/35/5/463.full Grip Strength: http://biomedgerontology.oxfordjournals.or...t/61/7/707.full Gait speed: http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/me...bstracts/S988-c http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/565777 Biomarkers to predict survival to very old age: (not very useful here, since news articles don't publish people's biomarkers) http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20514522 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P...2010-381637.pdf There are many other interesting studies if you do certain google keywords: http://www.google.com/search?q=mortality+of+centenarians Not directly related to mortality, but still interesting: http://www.nia.nih.gov/NewsAndEvents/Press...01026sepsis.htm

I was going to put him on my DDP next year (after he got in the news for his prediction) but when i googled his name again, i realized that he suddenly died. o_0 But he seemed to be as unusually active as Townes was (for his age) I might be able to get some insider information on Hans Dehmelt. He was aggressively pursuing a paleolithic diet several years ago. I'm not sure what he is up to now though. Here's his website: http://faculty.washington.edu/dehmelt/. And a sample diet of his: http://faculty.washington.edu/dehmelt/shreds102708B.htm And a paper of his: YOU ARE A PRIMATE, LIVE AS ONE: faculty.washington.edu/dehmelt/110508.rtf I certainly do hope that he lives as long as possible though.

Townes is still in very good health for his age, and he's still very active (he's still mobile and publishing papers). Anything could happen at age 96 (falls can be fatal), but I'm not betting on him going anytime soon. (I think he'll surpass Bethe as the oldest Physics Nobel laureate) Among all the older Nobel laureates, I'd bet against him and Chen Ning Yang dying. The others probably have higher chances of dying.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...ping-trips.html

Hm, what about the highest-ranking ones who are still alive? There probably aren't any generals left, but there might be colonels or lieut colonels. I suspect that there are lots of colonels or lieut colonels who don't even have Wiki bios - but who might get telegraph obits when they die. There's a Luftwaffe Oberst who's still alive (born 1913), and a SS divisional commander who's also still alive (born 1913). But I don't know of many people from any side other than the German one (the Germans seem to have the monopoly on Wiki articles even though they'll get the fewest telegraph obits). Even then, you get some surprises from the Chinese, who seem to have a lot of people who live into their 100s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%BC_Zhengcao http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yuanliang http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiao_Ke Although at this point, there are so few living vets of certain battles (like the Battle of Britain) that they'll almost certainly get telegraph obits even though they might not have Wiki articles yet.

Speaking of Germans in WWII, here's an interesting list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_livin...ross_recipients Granted, the media is leery of giving obits to most of them unless they are famous for something else. Darges got an obit, but due to his being on Hitler's inner circle. Gunther Rall also got an obit (from the telegraph), but barely (although his obit is long, and he was probably the most notable [post-war] of all of them). As for the others, I don't see any of them getting obits though Ribbentrop might get one just cuz he's the son of a notorious person. Most of the others don't get obits though (Barkmann didn't, though he was quite potent on the Western Front).

It's his 100th birthday today but there aren't any English articles mentioning it. I ran the French ones through Google Translate and got at this: AFP: L'Académie française honore son centenaire, Claude Lévi-Strauss http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navcl...86085&hl=fr Recherche Google : http://translate.google.com/translate?u=ht...p;ie=ISO-8859-1 Translated version of http://www.latribune.fr/culture/livres-bd/...euse-fete-.html http://translate.google.com/translate?u=ht...p;ie=ISO-8859-1 Translated version of http://www.letemps.ch/template/culture.asp...;article=244939 http://translate.google.com/translate?u=ht...=1&ie=UTF-8 Translated version of http://www.24heures.ch/actu/claude-levi-st...aire-2008-11-26 == so basically all that I can ascertain is that he "recently" said "if I am still alive it is only accidentally" and that he didnt attend the celebrations in honor of his 100th birthday. so I dont even know if he's still aware or not; of whether or not he's close to death now.

http://www.worldradio.ch/wrs/news/switzerl...sel.shtml?10492