gcreptile

Well, there's a dreadful picture, she looks half-dead, but that's how it is: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/vicky-phelan-made-honorary-freewoman-of-limerick-1.4793145

Christos Sartzetakis is the first hit of this game.

Plus the three for an unnatural death!

Ah, good you've already told me that he was picked. I never know under which letter to look with the arab names.... but yes, ISIS needs to confirm.

It's written a little overly dramatic: He's still tweeting like crazy, not on his deathbed yet. Still, cant tell if it's just a regular chemo cycle that's about to begin, or whether the tumour starting growing again. The latter would not be what I'd like to hear in February (nor would, Tom). Edit: It still seems though that some March appearances are still on?

Remi De Roo, last living English-speaking bishop at the Second Vatican Council dead at 97: https://bccatholic.ca/news/canada/bishop-remi-de-roo-dies-at-97

Well, I was looking for info on Princess Felicitas von Salm-Horstmar, as you do, picked in the DDP. Well, she's alive, apparently, her birthday seems to be 31st of March 1920, and well, that would make her the second-oldest European royal ever, according to this list: http://www.royaltymonarchy.com/royfacts/longlives.html She recently overtook the Queen Mum, and now only has Princess Alice in front of her, still at a healthy distance though.

Got nuthin, except, death date 2/2/22. soon we'll have 22/02/2022.

Wolfgang Schwanitz, final head of the STASI, replacement and former deputy of Erich Mielke, dead at 91: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wolfgang-schwanitz-ehemaliger-stasi-general-und-erich-mielkes-nachfolger-gestorben-a-a2fb3241-7cba-4f9d-bb00-3d03db8f28b2 Not on our radar.

Ooh, first hit, game is on!

Fallen from bike and hospitalised, again: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10465861/Simon-Cowell-lucky-alive-hes-rushed-hospital-following-terrifying-e-bike-crash.html

Well, she was put in an artificial coma after entering a weight loss clinic. Could be for dramatic effect of her show though: https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/01/1000-lb-sisters-star-tammy-slaton-left-fighting-for-her-life-in-worrying-scenes-16028795/

How do these work? Did they watch their neighbours and thought "Hey, we'll have one, too"?

Yes, I guess that's the crux of the matter. The p increases, which means, people get closer to the end the more time passes (with or without cancer). And pancreatic cancer can move very fast once it moves. Also, Shintaro Ishihara was already old, so I think picking him for 2022 might have been roughly a 50:50 bet. Edit: Maybe a little lower because I didn't think he'd obit with absolute certainty.

Well, I've wondered a bit about that. 1-year probability of survival is roughly twice the 5-year-survival. Say, stage IV brain cancer 5-year survival is 10%, and one year survival is 20% or something like that. But the probability is not a straight line, but logarithmic, I.e. 50% survive in year one, 50% of 50% survive year two, etc... So... if I find out about a stage IV cancer case in January 2022, what's the probability of dying in 2023? I guess "dying in 2023" is not the same as "dying before 2024". The difference is the probability of dying in 2022. So what's the probability of dying when I already know that the person has survived 2022 (when I want to pick them for the 2023 pools). I guess that's bayesian?

Ishihara's QO: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-china-tokyo-beijing-kobe-b2004885.html Bit annoyed at myself, but yes, I also read that his cancer was at an early stage. Well, even early pancreatic cancer has "only" 50% survival rate.

Live through 2021 with a new documentary about Kim Jong-Un: https://www.nknews.org/2022/02/kim-jong-un-completely-withered-as-he-suffered-for-the-people-state-tv-says/ Kim Jong-Un's weight loss is also being brought up: “His body completely withered away, and he showed his motherly side by greatly suffering and worrying to realize the dreams of the people,”

Oh dear, well, guess I have to dive into the swamp that is Facebook. Edit: It is our first match-up though. Eventually, it had to happen.

Occasionally I check for reuters.uk obits, but as a non-UK person it was never reliable for me.

picked him in a couple of things in the past, not this time though, sadly. He was described as a Japanese Jean-Marie Le Pen.

So while I was gone for about 90 minutes we had about 5 notable deaths, who either didn't obit or weren't picked..

I should add, and repeat, that what remains for me to do is to update the team data, i.e. name changes, years in DDP, (THEME) designations, team descriptions, and highest rank. I have to change a little in the way the DDP files work to make it more automatic. It's a long-term investment so to say, and it will be done. But for the time being some of these team things might be a little out of date or wrong.

I'll change it. Must be some kind of old data that made it in - from before the (THEME) era. I think we have the time for minor changes now. Spelling mistakes and other things. So just mention them.

DDP pick....ahem

Florent Pagny, French singer with several no. 1 hits has inoperable lung cancer: https://www.grazia.fr/people/florent-pagny-gravement-malade-il-annonce-etre-atteint-d-un-cancer-inoperable-1058788