gcreptile

Delta Goodrem in tears... Olivia is going to make a "very personal announcement" in an upcoming interview. https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/current-affairs/i-find-it-so-hard-delta-in-tears-over-olivia-newtonjohns-announcement/news-story/634cb3e3c545f5172b07baf227bd078e Think this one will not be so good.

To Joey: Yes, you have the differentials to at least potentially reach 3rd place. If I may say so after a minute of thinking. Cpt Chorizo, too, but maybe 1-2 fewer than you, and more unusual picks. But he is currently ahead and that counts a lot now. Same goes for msc, but he hasn't got much room to improve with all those non-obits. To challenge DI and me the field needs about 4-5 "surplus hits" (300 pts, 200pts for msc) Better start doing so now. But I see no team where they can be realistically expected right now. Think we're mostly through with the "good pick and valuable differential" phase. Kamala? Dynamite Kid? Michael Schumacher...not many of These names left. At DI: Ah yes, thanks! And yes, the Death By Numbers is a good one ;). I mean, you kind of have more or less about 50 names anyway from which to choose your final 20. Not that much more effort needed, but you do get different situations and people in there.

Think this has a couple of twists and turns left, including the odd non-QO turning into a QO. Warning: Massive Post incoming (Don't ask me how my evening/night was, it was weird, and the creation of this post was interrupted several times): Let me just say that DI has, in my opinion, a research edge this "season". His roster of 2018 names is uuh.. strong and stable... and carries him from one strong performance to the other. I can only keep up here because my method works better with bigger teams. Otherwise, my performances this year are, well, lacking. Except for the Generation Game, ha! But then, I might have had a bit of an edge back then in 2016/17 (just bad decisions in the DDP 2017 which were still enough for 2 Top 20 finishes). Anyway.... Let me take DI's list of differentials and put my own opinion on/at/into it (spilling a bit of my own deeper research here): Me: George Alagiah - could become a hit, late in the year, when we suddenly get a "quits treatment" message in November. Stephen Beer - freak pick that I always manage to sneak in somewhere. Last news were in January 18 as far as I can tell. Troubled person + overweight : Still..eh... However, if that one goes, it's an almost-knock-out. John Cocks - They said "he should be dead", but then it's "only" kidney cancer which I don't have that high on my target list anymore. Wasted joker in the theme team league? Possible non-obit? dicey Noel Conway - hmm, possible, from the looks of it, kind of worse off than Stephen Hawking ever was, with the breathing mask. Also old, so weak muscles, body collapsing. 2020 is out of reach, but 2019? Ben Dover - deeper research: was visited by his children last week - in Spain. I assume it's not a hospital. So doing ok. Not the best option Stuart Fraser - JoeyRuss probably researched him more than me, and is pessimistic for him (that is Joey, optimistic for Fraser then). So not likely, also obit in question Zak Gleeson - wasted pick Jorie Graham - good chance, if not this year, then maybe next year's XXXX (who was that female UK author with lung cancer, writing extensively about her plight?). Kind of like Conway Savage - silence => latter half of the year hit Sacheen Littlefeather - didn't look too bad on some twitter photo a couple of months ago. Things can go down fast though. Have a feeling a hit is here. Anna Pavord - still active. However, her last treatment cycle already broke her down completely. Another recurrence is likely a quick death. And a couple of months are left Genesis P-Orridge - was on stage a while ago, so never been at death's door, so far. Leukemia can strike fast though, but I have to admit, that in this case, my instincts were wrong until now. Still wouldn't rule it out, expected them dead by now though. Lindy Remigino - maybe??? Though before Conway Savage it would have been for naught, because DI's hit with John McCain would still leave him ahead by 2 pts with a Remigino QO. Now he would be a nice extra, to counter Woodward or Gascoine Holly Rowe - in remission, and just looking to robust. Ok, the robust/slim theory led me astray quite a bit with regard to Leah Bracknell. But no, she's not going away. Steve Smith - His absolutely dreadful appearance made me pick him here as a differential. But well, Pete Frates also recovered from such a state. And the obit might be unsure, because he's only the like third-most relevant Steve Smith in football or something like that Valeri Spiridonov - high risk/ high reward. I forgot his blog address, yes, I even forgot the platform that hosted it. No idea how he is doing. A knockout punch if it happens. Statistically, he has made it unusually far. Still obitable? But the risk/reward ratio made him a no-brainer for me. Next year may be different. And let's search for that blog... Mohammad Usman - wasted pick - was a Mirror or bust thing. In this 50 people pool, the cancer mum/dad/boy thing will likely lead to a few non obits. Those that hit though, are golden. But maybe you realize that I've switched out some of them. Shameless would have had a disappointing result this year. Anyway, this and Zak Gleeson's non-QO I totally deserve. Switching some of them out was a big concession, I cut my losses. Marieke Vervoort - Oh dear... now a ramble... without Conway Savage, this would have been DI's knock-out hit. Now I'd not be all that much behind. She's 19 years younger, and DI was about 30pts ahead, so I'd have to get 50 pts from somewhere. Jorie Graham would do it. Littlefeather not quite, but maybe with Remigino or really anyone else... As for my thoughts about her dying - who knows... Obviously have to dive deep into her psyche in December, if she's alive then. Statistically, the pick is still sound. Liam Miller was the better joker though, which however is only totally clear in hindsight, as Miller could well have lived for longer, considering his age. Why didn't I joker her here? Can't recall, maybe investment diversification? Anyway, I don't want a trophy-less year. Ok, I got the ABC deadpool. But it had fewer entries back then. It was unsure then that relatively new member Wormfarmer would turn out to be such an organized, dedicated forum member? The novelty possibly kept a few people away, plus the first come-first serve rule, which I exploited well, but not too well, as Gilbert and Stefansson last(ed) longer. On the other hand, 2nd placed Wormfarmer posted before me, and I was lucky he wasn't yet attuned to the forum hive mind (think he missed Errol Christie?). Props to 3rd placed Zsa Zsa's Leg though. Highly underrated performance, top hit with xxxTentacion. Dawn Wilson - have to dig deeply here. She might be dead already, last twitter entry in May. I hope it's not the deciding hit. But yeah, have her in my B-Team because she seemed the lazy way to keep the unique hit streak going. Obvious obit risk. Reggie Wright Jr. - Eh, who knows with these gangsters. Terminally ill? Well, could be! If so, many will wonder "Why didn't I pick him". If not, I will wonder "How could I be so stupid". Death Impends: Maartin Allcock - Didn't know about him when the news came up. I mean, I saw DDT's post, but only took notice of him when people picked him. I think it's a little early though. Made it public in June, has plans and still defiant. Might very well go down, possibly more than a 50% or even 60% chance to die before 2020. Have a feeling it's too early though. Colin Butts - hmm, no. I mean if they made another series, or some indirect reference, but probably not. Not likely in a "we lost" at the end of the year. DJ Casper - yeah, knew he was doing ok, hence I didn't pick him anywhere this year. Now "officially" in remission. Johnny Clegg - can't rule him out, definitely earns extremely heavy consideration for 2019 if he makes it. Just slightly too active, slightly too optimistic. And not with the head in the clouds, as he already faces the end with a "final tour". Jill Gascoine - good low-scoring pick. Her and Woodward are a bit "clash of the concepts". DI goes little by little, I go all or nothing. Think the better DDP strategy became obvious this year. Here it's an open question. Think Gascoine is slowly moving into "overdue" territory Steve Gleason - the new kid news came out of nowhere. Can he be that big of an asshole to die before it's born? Or is he the even bigger asshole to die with the child barely alive? My hunch is that he is stable enough. Looks bigger than Ricksen as well. Maybe he found a way to manage it, the statistics are bad though, and have been since last year. Valerie Harper - could always die... or last another 5 years. Twin pick with Clive James. Worth 39 pts, part of the little-by-little strategy. I think we'll know when the end is coming though. Cynthia Heimel - that Guardian article just didn't come... The Independent had an obit, but noone followed. Was she too sex-positive in the #metoo era for the Guardian? That's my theory. Bad timing, DI doesn't deserve that miss. Bill Heine - actually, doing appropriately well. Not one for 2018. Pretty sure of that. William Perry - let me google him for the first time in half a year. Signs autographs..ok, probably a bad pick, but every old wrestler is a target for a heart attack and/or liver failure. Think it's rather unlikely though. Simon Ricketts - On paper, DI's best choice? Small tip: The obit might only appear in a blog form from the Guardian Night team. Not even sure if the blog format counts as a QO. He did win some blogging award lately though and the next cancer attack will kill him within days. Nanci Ryder - Apparently not too public anymore? I guess not looking as bad as Steve Smith, but pretty much comparable in risk/reward ratio I think Budi Tek - somewhat miraculously still alive and active a month ago or so. Things can go down quickly though. Little by little... Ian Toothill - yeah, in my opinion the one time DI really grabbed into the FFBI box, and got punished for it. Unfair odds. Don't see an obit here anymore. With Heimel neither, by the way, and now her outfit closed down. Marieke Vervoort - see above Mike Willesee - here, we can come to an agreement, hit for DI here, getting him slightly ahead of me, but also a big boost in the Theme Team league for me. Obviously I want to win both though, ha! But yes, Willesee recently hospitalised for a fall. When cancer spreads into the bones, they get weak and are easy to break. Think the most likely hit, DI is going to have, better than Ricketts, but fewer points. Joanne Woodward - bad health, could be dead any day now or in 5 years. No, more like 3 years. Good pick for his strategy. Leaves me with 16 possibilities, and DI with 13. Matching them up: Steve Smith - Steve Gleason (the one lacks obitability, the other lacks frailty) (draw) Sacheen Littlefeather - Mike Willesee (terminal cancer septuagenarians) (draw) George Alagiah - Maartin Allcock (middle-aged more likely 2019 types) (draw - some of you may differ) Jorie Graham - Johnny Clegg (silence from her, deadlier cancer from him) (draw) Lindy Remigino - Budi Tek (the one is a safe death but considerably unsafe obit, the other is a moderately likely death whose time must be coming to an end with a dicey but less-than-Remigino-dicey obit) (draw) Ben Dover - Bill Heine (think both are doing too well) (draw) Noel Conway - Nanci Ryder (pretty evenly matched actually) (draw) Stephen Beer - William Refrigerator Perry (If I hadn't just googled Perry, he would be the far better pick. Now it's a case of two lightning strikes) (draw) John Cocks - Marieke Vervoort (joker) - the match-ups get harder. But both of them have a certain diceyness. (no idea) Stuart Fraser - XXX no match in DI's team, but only a very small advantage for me. Another Conway Savage-type hit? Probably not (advantage me) Anna Pavord - Valerie Harper (Seems about right) (draw) Genesis P-Orridge - XXX no real match in DI's team (just a small, not very small, but small advantage for me) (advantage me) Dawn Wilson - Simon Ricketts - a match-up moderately in DI's favour, because Wilson's slightly younger age, can't compensate for Rickett's higher obitability. The most aggressive arrows in both teams, neither a lock in death, nor a lock in obitability (advantage DI) Reggie Wright Jr. - XXXX Think DI has no "Is he even ill" person in his team. (advantage me) Valeri Spiridonov - XXXX Would more or less give me the win on the spot. At least somewhat notable, probably about as much as Ricketts, ha! (Journalists are sort-of cheating the notability criteria, because they make them). (advantage me) XXXX - Woodward & Gascoine (I have none of these safe and sound picks anymore. Together they're worth 67 pts. A quick search said, Wright Jr. is 52 years old - born in 1965/66. ) (advantage DI + advantage DI) Pretty evenly matched I think. Maybe with tiny advantages for me, because I have more names left. But: The biggest advantage for me is that I am currently ahead, by, I think, 28 points? Means, I could barely beat back a Budi Tek death by.. a point? Then Remigino would merely be a nice extra. So yeah, I think I have a better chance now. But honestly, it's only about one or maybe one and a half pick or so. That gives me the matchball, or say, the serve to win, now. But a (lucky) break for DI is very well possible.

I like the idea, it was original, an easy and new idea. Come on, you're doing something for the people here! Just a couple of points: I had the impression that you started it during Shaun's avalance of deadpools, so that was a bad timing for me. And then you were a bit harsh on yourself, for not updating or whatever... Something to learn from Deathray: Don't doubt yourself so often, or people will agree with you (herd instinct or something). But think about it, quite a few people were willing to play it in the 2nd year. You really didn't do a bad job. Yes, a bit of a learning curve. But well, you were 16 and on the board for what..3 months? Damn impressive.

Thank you Willz! A job very well done! Welcome back Deathray, I'm looking forward to you seeing me rise. In the scoreboard. On a different note, if anyone feels like taking a break from hosting something, I would be free to take over. My own holiday season is probably done this year. However.... the Joker Dead Pool, sorry, I don't feel that comfortable with the random jokers. Don't know if I could handle it, making my own bonus pts etc...

He's got the same disease Pete Sampras has - and that Gladys Knight will probably die of.

"Indonesian conspiracy theory": Is Dele Alli a satanist? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6126857/Dele-Alli-challenge-Footballer-accused-saluting-Muslim-Antichrist-goal-celebration.html

Oh, to be born in Trinidad and to die in Morgantown, West Virginia.

My pick Karen Neville (partner of Herol Graham) has died: https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/partner-of-sheffield-boxing-legend-herol-bomber-graham-dies-after-three-year-battle-with-cancer-1-9331318 "early hours of Saturday", so on the 1st. Edit: But the Star is not a QO though, I think.

Is that Liza Minnelli next to her? Who's supporting whom?

Thank you! Yes, a "good" hit

Guardian obit for all purposes, or well, my purposes: https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/sep/03/conway-savage-nick-cave-and-the-bad-seeds-pianist-dies-age-58 Maybe the theme team threepeat is now on again.

UK grandmaster Nigel Short is now trying to become the boss of the World Chess Organization FIDE and is now up against a crony of the current FIDE boss Ilyumzhinov (Russian) and "the other Russian" Arkady Dvorkovich, a former Kremlin aide: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/sep/02/who-will-be-king-three-way-battle-for-control-rocks-international-chess hmm...

Best thing that never happened to her. Of course it's not pancreatic cancer. Her license to ill goes straight through her heart. Let's see who wrote these jokes while I typed...

Aaaand two days ago I finished the final book of the trilogy "Death's End" - enjoyable but not quite as good as the other two. It is a book that goes on and on and on...and on.... and on. It fails a bit in the end and kind of devalues the superb second book. Glad to have read it all though.

Charon doesn't even believe in the existence of some of the most active users here ;).

I'm seeing the billboards in Malmö. Is there a party whose name translates to the "laziness party"? There is a woman with oversized glasses on it. I like it.

gcreptile's September picks of questionable notability: 5pts: Frederick Berry (Mass. senator) 4pts: Rev. Robert Graetz 3pts: Karen Neville (partner of Herol Graham) 2pts: Mike Gasparato 1pt: Philomena Lynott

Relapsed after that cancer scare half a year ago: https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/drug-addict-daniella-westbrook-suffers-13165732 Though I guess one could have guessed by her recent behaviour.

Today I noticed that there are not only ironic deaths but also ironic cancer diagnoses. (sp?)

I doubt it's a head transplant so she should be fine or even better - unleeeess they have to remove a tumour.

Cůrrently in Målmø. Later in Køpenhågen. Never been to Scændinæviå before. I could get used to it.

Cross-thread posting: Now I know the Nine Inch Nails song Willie Nelson might cover: Something I can never have.

His reception is gravely ill? He's HIV-positive? (positivity...)

I think we should kare more for her.