gcreptile

You know what's weirder? We both called her "Bowlen" although her last name is "Bowler". Edit: I wouldn't rule out an obit. Depends on how the story goes.

This will be an interesting year. Safe teams vs. risky teams, statistics vs. gut feeling, almost even Drop 40 bonuses vs. unique bonuses (personal feeling: the Drop 40 bonus should go down to 2 pts). This will be a good test if my statistics are of bigger use, because Dead Ends is doing about a pick better than anyone else. If he doesn't finish at or near the top with his statistically sound picks, then it shows that you're better off with gut feeling. Oh yeah, and my gut feeling says that I am going to win. But that's not THAT unusual, considering I submitted only 3 weeks ago, and so far, nothing has happened that would change my opinion. I should have swapped my subs Sumner Redstone (second sub) and José José (third sub) though. But ironically, I'm still doing better than I would have if Cas Willow had lived for another week.

At first glance, yes, you belong there. Yes, I saw that. I "only" have about 40 teams scored right now. Deceased Hose slipped through, probably because I thought that I had already scored him when I went through the whole list. If I see that another team is doing very well, I will add them as well.

What's your team?

Duke University professor Kate Bowler has incurable stage IV cancer: http://time.com/5118044/kate-bowler-interview-cancer-faith/ She's a theologist, author and blogger and her illness has made her go "meta".

Ah, the unique bonus for Efrain Rios Montt was still missing in your probabilistic score. I think there are a few of such bonuses still missing.

Yes, it's probably that instead of Jowell! The probabilistic score actually still has him at 10 base points. But the point potential has him at 9 base points. These cases are a little debatable. I mean, maybe 9,4 would be right... I might change Rickett's probabilistic score after his birthday.

Stefan Karl Stefansson 6,50 13,00 Stefan Karl Stefansson 6,5 13,00 DJ Casper 4,50 10,00 Liam Miller 11,05 13,00 Linda Nolan 4,80 12,00 John McCain 9,00 9,00 Nobby Stiles 7,00 10,00 Patrick Cryne 11,00 11,00 Leah Bracknell 10,80 12,00 Rayya Elias 12,00 12,00 Vanessa Goodwin 7,00 10,00 Tessa Jowell 7,00 10,00 Tiffany Youngs 6,00 10,00 Greg Gilbert 7,80 13,00 Gabriele Grunewald 3,64 13,00 Dean Francis 7,00 10,00 Total Biscuit 4,00 10,00 Steffan Lewis 4,20 10,00 Pete Frates 5,40 10,00 Marieke Vervoort 14,77 16,00 Simon Ricketts 8,19 12,00 158,1525 239 Hmm... I could imagine that you only have 3 pts Drop 40 bonus for Stefan Karl instead of the 6. And then you might have Tessa Jowell at 11 pts, but she turned 70 last September.

I already found a mistake, Vanessa Goodwin is worth 10pts, not 9. So you're at 239! I wonder what the difference is....

About Dead Ends' team... those Drop 40 bonuses of Catherine Nevin and Simon Ricketts are really strong. One might be a fraud, and one has obitability problems and his cancer is being managed. But statistically, a terminal brain tumour and pancreatic cancer are just too strong. I also have a feeling that out of Greg Gilbert and Stefan Karl Stefansson only one of them is going to die this year. But a 13-pointer with a 50:50 probability of dying is also pretty strong... Then there is DJ Casper, who was looking ok in his vlog, a bit of a dicey pick, but statistically sound. Steve Gleason has outlived his prognosis, but he looks much better than Fernando Ricksen, he can still smile. I think his former bulky-ness extends his life.

Here's a ranking of the point potential, i.e. what's the score with 20 hits (no birthday bonuses, unnatural death only for Marieke Vervoort). (This chart might yet be incomplete because of some missing unique bonuses...or errors) 1. Dead Ends (242) 2. Deceased Hose (241) 3. GUN - Gabriele Grunewald edition (239) 4. Shaun of the Dead 69 (238) 5. Day in the Death (235) 5. Dead Wait (235) 7. Life Flies by so Fast (234) 7. GUN - Ami Brown edition (234) 7. People who I think might die in 2018 ...united (234) 10. GUN - Ami Brown edition (233) 11. Cancel My Appointments (231) 12. The Love Boat (230) 13. Sovereign Reaper (228) 14. Thomas Jefferson Survives (227) 15. Still Life (225) 15. Banana's Peel Slippers (225) 17. Pan Breed (223) 18. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (222) 18. Wormer! He's a Dead Man! etc.. etc... (222) - without points for Jan Burgess - so potentially much higher! 20. Bucket of Blood (220) 21. I'm sorry for your trouble (219) These numbers are basically Shameless numbers. It's the strength of the Drop 40 bonus, a 32-point joker in Marieke Vervoort (compare to 24pts of Mark Sims), and quite a few young people with stage IV cancer. The Drop 40 bonus is dividing people into two camps I think, the "hive mind" of the forum, i.e. joker Marieke Vervoort or some other forum only name (Elias, Cryne), and the more casual dead poolers. I could imagine that we will see some fairly big score divide around place 40-50.

Ok, this is a first Top 20. Unique bonuses are mostly in, Drop 40 bonuses are all in Obitability of Ian Toothill down to 5%, obitability of Kevin "Chalky" Carr down to 20% All the popular hits already in, Elias, Cryne, Falkholt, Zarin, also Jim Anderton, Thomas Monson, and so on.... I think I'm up-to-date now. 1. Dead Ends (177,265) 2. Bucket of Blood (170,995) 3. Deceased Hose (170,44) 4. Dead Wait (169,795) 5. Day in the Death (167,575) 6. Drollercoaster (166,0525) 7. Still Life (165,845) 8. Wormer, He's a dead man! Etc etc... (165,1725) - I couldn't find Jan Burgess' age. I assume she's in her 60s. But obitability gets knocked down a bit because of that. 9. The Love Boat (164,325) 10. To Kill a Gabor Sister (163,3625) 11. Shaun of the Dead 69 (159,803) 12. GUN - Ami Brown (158,2925) 13. GUN - Gabriele Grunewald (158,1525) - ah, but now the irony, Gabriele Grunewald might be the better pick after all.... I might eventually change the odds of people like Ami Brown 14. The Living End (157,005) 15. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (156,9425) 16. People who I think might die in 2018 ..united.. (156,293) 17. Thomas Jefferson Survives (155,845) - If Toothill is lost, Laura Barry becomes a must-have. 18. DDP Tofoa (153,23) 19. Heading Nowhere (151,5225) 20. I'm sorry for your trouble (150,89) 21. Banana's Peel Slippers (149,555) 22. Pan Breed (147,98) A bit of an explanation: The three teams at the top had no name that was new to me, i.e. they went safe. And even if I feel that people like DJ Casper, Linda Nolan or Olivia Newton-John are not going to die this year, I still have to give them fairly high scores. These are the potential latter-half-of-the-year hits, like Daisy Berkowitz and Sharon Laws last year.

Uuuhh... Bucket of Blood is in fact ahead of Joey... but someone else is even further up, by quite a bit!

Sri Sri Sri Shrimashima.... you know the deal: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/siddaganga-seer-hospitalised/article22529646.ece

What kind of phenomenon are you talking about???

1. Terry Jones 2. Queen Elizabeth II 3. Dick Van Dyke 4. Donald Trump 5. Angela Lansbury 6. Jimmy Carter 7. Linda Nolan 8. Prunella Scales 9. Olivia Newton-John 10. Paul Gascoigne 11. Alberto Fujimori 12. Aretha Franklin 13. Betty White 14. Bob Barker 15. Vera Lynn 16. Stephen Hawking 17. Robert Mugabe 18. Stan Lee 19. Olivia De Havilland 20. Clive James 21. Henry Kissinger 22. Benedict XVI 23. Simon Ricketts 24. Chris Rea 25. Stefan Karl Stefansson Edit: Sub: Carol Channing Thank you and good luck!

Jimmy Carter reduces his church teaching schedule: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/former-president-carter-reducing-church-teaching-schedule

Yes, I think Bucket of Blood might top the scoreboard. As of now, I have also seriously overrated Ami Brown (whom he picked), but I do not want to change the probabilities of dying throughout the year, so one has to mentally substract some points off her... assuming the cancer doesn't come back. Drol is less than a point behind Joey.

Almost.... drug overdose on a gay cruise: https://www.queerty.com/storm-chasers-host-joel-taylor-dies-reported-drug-overdose-gay-cruise-20180125

No, you're first. I have Ian Toothill down to 5% obitability now (uniques and Drop 40 bonusses are in as well). But maybe some of the non-forum teams are currently ahead. I won't get around to calculate scores for them until the weekend.

Oh, the dominoes will be falling soon... Liam Miller is a bit of a DeathList miss, I guess...

Former archbishop of Indianapolis, Daniel Buechlein, dead at 79: https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2018/01/25/former-indianapolis-archbishop-daniel-m-buechlein-dies-hometown-jasper/1064877001/ I had him in my first Rotten Deadpool team. Edit: Even a Daily Mail obit; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-5313413/Retired-Indianapolis-Archbishop-Buechlein-dies-79.html

4.00, so basically 50:50. I was expecting his death more than others but the 8 base points were not enough for such a gamble.

Funny how that goes... On the other hand, Ian Toothill must now be a List of the Lost-er.

Julian Assange not in the best physical and psychological health: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jan/24/julian-assanges-health-in-dangerous-condition-say-doctors