gcreptile

UK/Aussie TV "legend" Cornelia Frances has bladder cancer, and had other health problems in 2017: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/entertainment/sydney-confidential/tv-legend-cornelia-frances-in-fight-for-life-against-cancer/news-story/5d5b287c7ff416c53856fac107072893

BBC video on last year's Shameless pick Juan Pedro Franco, still miraculously alive, and apparently doing better: http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-42581917/the-world-s-most-obese-man-s-attempt-to-lose-weight

I wonder if Cryne and Elias are going to make it. It will be close. They are only names for insiders (forum members). But among those almost everyone picked them.

You are extremely quick.... He is infamous for a certain speech that caused his resignation. In that speech he played Devil's Advocate and "impersonated" the ordinary German in the Third Reich, feeling ever so slightly jealous of the Jews, and secretly amused by their plight. A rhetorical device inacceptable in the 80s.

I read the BBC for such things: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42575155

Exactly. As you can see on the previous page, I had her with 7,53 expected points, already pretty high (wasn''t 100% sure she'd obit, and I very, very rarely assign a 100% probability of dying to anyone.). But now it increases to 9, so everyone's score increases by 1,47pts. Drol gets the effect twice, so 2,94pts more for him. If she makes the Drop 40 everyone gets an additional 3 pts, or even 6 for Drol. I will update all scores Sunday or so, will do it step by step. MPFC and msc's teams are next (I have a feeling his B-team will score higher than the A-team).

I will participate, too, of course! Love it... I also applied for hosting, but the spot was already taken :).

Hmm, had the name written down... ah, now I remember....she wanted to get a statue built for her mother in her local town.

And she wasn't even the first hit!

First pardoned, now leaving the clinic.

Less than two months from doing pretty well to being dead... RIP. I assume a Guardian obit will come first. Probably even written by Liz Gilbert.

I have to say that I do not care about many of the people I write about. But without deadpooling I'd probably care about none of them. It's an unusual way to get to know about people.

Yes, without the make-up, she's starting to look frightening. She knows how to keep up a facade well enough to fool herself (which is why that esoteric mumbo-jumbo works for some - placebo effect).

She played Kirk's girlfriend in spite of 40 years age difference?

I have begun to calculate a couple of scores. I will do so slowly, researching so many new names is exhausting. Again, I probably have a bias towards my own team because, after all, the score was an influence on my picks. So far I have: The Love Boat - 152,464 (the score is a little higher than on the previous page because Thomas Monson has died!) drollercoaster - 143,6315 Thomas Jefferson Survives - 150,556 - I think Laura Barry is a huge gamble. If she is a hit, the expected score climbs by up to 12pts. I give her an expected score of "only" 3,00. A new pick to me, so judgement may be rushed... I couldn't find out what's wrong with Cynthia Heimel - location issue? Her silence on twitter is ominous though. The Living End - 144,808 - I love your pick of Gerard Basset - classy. I didn't know about him. Though his people are all so very optimistic right now. Let's see... To Kill a Gabor Sister - 149,448 - safe and sound team, reminds me of the Death Impends from 2-3 years ago Still Life - 154,021 - As you can see, top score. So some more detailed thoughts: Jessica Falkholt and Ian Toothill: high-scoring but slightly risky picks. In spring, we know if Still Life is on course to win or if these gambles failed and the team is falling behind. Mike Willesee: I don't have hm with such a high score even though I picked him myself for my theme team. Still, for a "weakest pick", it's still quite strong. Bernard Tapie was the last one I kicked out of my teams. Will be interesting how he does.... I'm sorry for your trouble - 133,628 - I have no idea how bad Stirling Moss and Robin Herd actually are. If they die, the score jumps quite a bit. Day in the Death 2018 - 148,902 - base points are 218, so actually the highest (for now). (Love Boat at 215, TJS at 216) I have Jacqui Forster as a unique (12 base points). 60% dying, 80% obiting. 60% unique chance. post-Rayya Elias: Carkers Convention 2018 - 129,5705 - another one with Robin Herd, hmm.. Colin Baddiel: my deadpooling experience with Pick's disease is exactly 1 - Colin Baddiel. Apart from that, I saw how much emphasis MPFC puts on obitability. I think he can get riskier... Pan Breed - 141,744 - Carl Piddington is an addition to my "best possible team" on the previous page. Pete Stokes is not such a bad pick. Either he dies after his pupil has become world champion, or he dies before the fight and gets a shout-out from his pupil during the WC fight - which is then hopefully reported by the press. If these two are unique hits, this team can compensate for not having Marieke Vervoort on it. The End of The World As We Know It - 115,985 Going Underground - 110,34725 - I had them all on my longlist already, including David DiChiera and Lil Wayne (certainly a plausible pick). But the joker Linda Nolan isn't scoring so well with me. Sovereign Reaper - 130,327 - Sleeper team... Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet - 145,5165 Here's who you could have won - 107,938 - I had to guess that Kevin McAllister was in his mid 50s.... Bobby Zarin's Mack The Knifed - 83,528 - a couple of wonderful names, can see why they are in the second team though. 2019 - no thank you, I'll leave before! - 113,95 - Richard Buckley really DOES look hideous.... Shaun of the Dead 69 - 144,219 - A month ago, I predicted a Top Ten team from Sean, could well happen.... DDP Tofoa - 140,054 - getting better with each year! Life goes by so fast! - 128,5475 - new record with 219 base points Heading Nowhere - 136,9195 - Blackie Dammett is an interesting pick. Very interesting team. drunkasaskunk - 125,625 - shameless team ;). GUN away - 147,5025, GUN fishing a point lower. The Whipping Posts - 82,3555 - base score is 180.

I think you are right that there is a winning team that consists exclusively of Drop 40 picks. But unique picks still have the same value. I don't calculate an effort/reward ratio.

Ok, then let's go with Sumner Redstone.

Americans tend to underestimate just how crazy Europeans are about their soccer football.

And if I may use my sub... I'd like to place Nobby Stiles behind Johnny Hubbard and in front of John McCain.

Question(s): The teams we posted in this thread, do they count? Does my sub jump in for Erica Garner? Do I get points for Thomas S. Monson?

My assessment on my own teams: The Love Boat: Marieke Vervoort - In my opinion, the logical joker. I think she'll do it and let herself be euthanised. Sad, but it's what she wants. And it will be a relief. Shalom Ouanounou - Huge gamble, his story was reported by the BBC though. There'll be a legal decision next month whether this brain-dead body continues to be externally stimulated. The decision will definitely be reported. His death as well? By the way, I thought it was too shameless to also pick the body of Taquisha McKitty - a similar case. Leah Bracknell - Going by statistics, I'd give her a 90% chance of dying, but there's this nagging doubt in the back of my mind, is she faking it? We've never seen her in a hospital.... Dean Francis - Outliving his initial prognosis, shouldn't survive after opting out of chemo for something else. But like Errol Christie, he'll fight for every single day. Emma Hannigan - Her latest blog post is sounding like Connie Johnson at the beginning of the end. I'm surprised she wasn't picked by you guys. I still doubt she'll be a unique pick. Obitability is still a question, but she got Mirror coverage and has fans. Thuy Thanh Truong - Another gamble as her BBC coverage is now a bit dated. But by all accounts, she's the type of person our corporate overlords like. Her treatment stopped working recently and they're trying something new now. Her medication points towards (stage IV) non-small cell lung cancer. So the prognosis is not good at all... Sara Chivers - I thought I had to have at least one cancer mum. She got repeated coverage and will die soon. So I went for it. Devin Lima - stage IV adrenal cancer has a very bad prognosis, well... just like most other stage IV cancer types. I have a feeling he won't make it, and the silence is better than the activity of Greg Gilbert and Stefan Karl, so.... Derek Dudley/Thomas S. Monson - Well, I was pretty sure that Dudley will receive a "Les Mutrie memorial" obit. His death saves me the pain of following the BBC match reports... I'm not sure if it was a 5 point loss, or a 5 point gain. Maybe it was an omen that my team will have a pretty wild ride.... Rayya Elias - inevitable Nobby Stiles - I have been expecting his death announcement for the past 6 months or so. Can't do much longer... Pauline Maroney - picked on a whim. Had to remove her from my theme team so that the chance of a unique hit remains. Looking good so far. Daily Mail fodder. Cas Willow/Sumner Redstone - Well, I don't know about this one. Depends on Spade's decision. As a sub, Sumner Redstone is a solid pick, yet I regret not picking John "Cocksy" Cocks, because I had the vain hope of him being a unique hit for my theme team. Redstone is now 94, the same age Liliane Bettencourt was when she died. Liam Miller - I have, again, read rumours of him being in a hospice. Could be the echo of the first annoucement though. Still, a 10/13 pointer with pancreatic cancer - had to be. Matt Cappotelli - The latest wave of news on him confused me with the headline "5 years to live". Turns out that the headline was a bit misleading. He's very likely dying this year. Tiffany Youngs - Grim prognosis, but supposedly did ok a couple of months ago (a small improvement after a very hard time 2016/17). A year will be a long time for her. She could make it though. Fernando Ricksen - Like with Joost, some late-year news snippets made me pick him. Statistically, it's one year too soon. But he's supposedly in decline, looks every worse and got honoured in a way that looked like a goodbye. Hector Timerman - A pick I fell in love with (too much?). The rumours were pancreatic cancer. His New York Times article last week confirms that he's ill. But it might also have made other people pick him. I think he'll get a QO pretty easily. He was involved in the latest Falklands Island crisis. Think Reuters UK should cover his death at least. His father was also a notable communist. John McCain - I said before. The biggest lock of 2018 for me (among the popular names). Tessa Jowell - A 10-pointer with aggressive brain cancer, a no-brainer - even if she survives the year I wouldn't regret it. The B-Team: Morgan Tsvangirai - Just lacking that slightest bit of ..I don't know... to make the main team. But I've pushed the name so much, that I had to pick him prominently. Vanessa Goodwin - obviously dying, saw a picture of her on Twitter. I just had the slightest doubt of her obitability. Jean-Louis Trintignant - he knows he's on borrowed time. Mid-year death. Philomena Lynott - lively woman, lasting quite a while now. A bit like Charlotte Rae. But neither of them can defy nature. Dawn Wilson - I wanted my B-Team to be the very safe contrast to my main team. But I ended up with a very low potential score for it. So I had to add a cancer mum, so that I have a chance to improve on my 2017 performance. She made it. She got repeated press coverage and looks almost dead. Kathleen Blanco - I'm just not "experienced" enough with eye-cancer to pick her for my main team. It does look like a pretty safe bet though - although: Judy Martz lived with pancreatic cancer a year longer than expected. Nicholas Edwards - I'm still a bit annoyed that Sean revealed his cancer (from Sophie Sabbage's blog). That's research one better doesn't give away. Vanessa LaFaye - eh, stage IV cancer, and the slot needed to be filled. Dilip Kumar - He surely can't last much longer (each time I say this, he is granted another year). His "somber" birthday party sounded like everyone expects that it is his last. Genesis P-Orridge - the gofundme updates don't sound good at all - death in spring Denis Goldberg - eh, terminal lung cancer, over 80 years old, "last battle". He's a goner Peter Lorimer - mysterious silence. Sort of expected him dead by now. At his age, I don't expect a miraculous recovery. Patrick Cryne - He was on my main team for a loooong time. His certain death might just be the points I miss at the very end. Satoru Anzaki - The obit isn't a sure thing. His death this year is. Franco Zeffirelli - He was also on my main team, when I still had a bit of defence. Can't possibly last another 12 months. Bobby Zarin - He cannot shake his cancer off. Could happen any day now. Charlotte Rae - see Philomena Lynott Johnny Hubbard - I believe in Charon's opinion. Anna Pavord - a sneaky unique hit? Likely the only chance the B-Team has for a unique hit in the 3rd year running. Let's see. Another attack of her stomach cancer will quickly kill her. Lindy Remigino - pancreatic cancer and Daily Mail/AP obit guaranteed.

Russell M. Nelson, likely next leader of the Church of the Latter Day Saints, 93 years old: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_M._Nelson

I am pleased with my entrance into this competition. But with my first team, I erred on the side of caution: 1. Arap Moi, Daniel (former president of Kenia) 2. Benedikt XVI (ex-pope) 3. Blanco. Kathleen (Louisiana governor during Katrina) 4. Bush, Barbara (former first Lady) 5. Bush, George H. W. (former US president) 6. Chirac, Jacques (former french president) 7. Douglas, Kirk (legendary Hollywood actor) 8. Graham, Billy (premier evangelist) 9. Goldberg, Denis (south African civil rights activist) 10. Holm, Ian (Bilbo Baggins, Ash in Alien, etc, The Fifth Element, etc...) 11. Jackson, Joe (Jackosn family patriarch) 12. José, José (mexican singer and multiple grammy nominee) 13. Keneally, Thomas (writer of the original novel of "Schindler's List") 14. Kumar, Dilip (Bollywood legend) 15. Kusama, Yayoi (eccentric japanese artist) 16. Lima, Devin (member of 90's boyband LFO) 17. Littlefeather, Sacheen (the native american woman who accepted Marlon Brando's Oscar) 18. Masekela, Hugh (South African world music pioneer, and jazz musician) 19. McCain, John (Senator and US presidential candidate, war hero) 20. Monson, Thomas S. (head of the Church of the Latter Day Saints) 21. Naipaul, V. S. (winner of the Nobel prize for literature in 2001) 22. O'Connor, Sandra Day (first woman on US supreme court) 23. Ozawa, Seiji (veteran conductor) 24. Pelé (soccer legend) 25. Perez De Cuellar, Javier (former chief secretary of the United Nations) 26. P-Orridge, Genesis (queer artist, and industrial musician as member of Throbbing Gristle) 27. Prowse, David (the body of Darth Vader) 28. Rae, Charlotte (beloved sitcom actress, "Facts of Life") 29. Rea, Chris (UK soft rock musician) 30. Redstone, Sumner (former CEO of Viacom) 31. Remigino, Lindy (two-time gold medal winner at the 1952 Olympics) 32. Savage, Conway (member of the "Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds") 33. Shore, Mitzi (veteran US stand-up comedian) 34. Tsvangirai, Morgan (chief opponent of Robert Mugabe) 35. Trintignant, Jean-Louis (french actor with a 60-year career) 36. Von Dohnanyi, Christoph (famous conductor) 37. Walters, Barbara (US TV journalist) 38. Watson, James D. (discoverer of DNA) 39. Wouk, Herman (author, The Caine Mutiny) 40. Zeffirelli, Franco (film, theatre and opera director)

First hit of 2018, Thomas S. Monson: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-5230979/Thomas-S-Monson-president-Mormon-church-died.html

Heh... the Mario Soares of 2018, well, my very own personal Mario Soares.