gcreptile

I use Excel a lot at work, I had to learn quite a bit in a short time actually. Then I wanted to see if I could use it here. It actually can make things easier if you know how. However: A DDP team only consists of 20 names, and a set of 20 is not that much in statistics. It's like playing roulette and you bet on red and win two times, maybe three times in a row. Or you play 10 times and win 10 times in a row, it happens. But if you play over and over again, and always bet on red, you will most likely win only 50% of all times (actually slightly less because of the zero). So my method works better with larger teams. A set of 20 is exactly on the border of usefulness. The bigger the team, the better it works. With only 20 names, someone with more medical knowledge, or inside information, or just with the necessary experience will still win.

Yes, that is an easy solution. But I would love to have it all somehow in one calculation, not two IF-formulas. That work looks impressive, but it is actually not that much work, because the formula is always the same. I just have to give probabilities for each new name on my longlist, and while it's a bit of a crude method, it also orders things and makes it easier. For example, I could order the column "probability of dying" from highest to lowest and get good names if obitability and age can be ignored = good for The Hare's deadpool for example. The first test of this method was my entry for the Generation Game and it worked very well. Edit: If I have time, and to be honest, the next 4-5 months don't look too well, I will try to refine my table. I need some kind of system to order things even more. I began last month to add an "needs to be watched" criterion. I have to see where this goes. In the end, it shall save time, not make more time. I won't have the necessary time to do well in the Deathlist Cup if I don't find a way to simplify things.

The formula from Excel: =WENN(A7="dead";"dead";(H7+3*K7+3*L7+3*M7)*I7*J7) This is the Excel formula. Wenn = if H7 = points for age, K7 = probability of a unique hit, L7 = probability of unnatural death, M7 = probability of Drop 40 bonus., I7 = probabiity of dying in 2018, J7= probability of a QO. I'm actually not quite happy with the formula because people still get a score even if I don't know their age (the cell is empty, but because of the bonus factors, they still get an expected score). There must be something better.

I think you will be right. I had a strange fixation on trying to surpass my base points of 2017. (216? 220? something like that) The base points are just another variable. In Vervoort's expected score (12,49) is a 20% chance of making the Drop 40. But I can already see that this was too low, probably more like 60-70%. Those who have her as joker may well have a one-pick advantage over those who haven't.

Let me see if that works: The Love Boat The B-Team Going Down in Down Under Name Expected score base points Name Expected score base points Name Expected score base points 1 Marieke Vervoort 12,49 13,00 1 Morgan Tsvangirai 6,02 8,00 1 John "Cocksy" Cocks 4,54 9,00 1 Marieke Vervoort 12,49 13,00 1 Morgan Tsvangirai 6,02 8,00 1 John "Cocksy" Cocks 4,536 9,00 2 Shalom Ouanounou 6,34 12,00 2 Vanessa Goodwin 7,42 9,00 2 Ted Mack 3,78 6,00 3 Leah Bracknell 10,80 12,00 3 Jean-Louis Trintignant 3,73 6,00 3 Vanessa Goodwin 7,42 9,00 4 Dean Francis 8,05 10,00 4 Philomena Lynott 4,54 5,00 4 Jeanne Little 4,60 7,00 5 Emma Hannigan 5,31 10,00 5 Dawn Wilson 5,81 10,00 5 Sara Chivers 5,60 10,00 6 Thuy Thanh Truong 5,38 10,00 6 Kathleen Blanco 4,20 7,00 6 Kevin "Chalky" Carr 4,58 10,00 7 Sara Chivers 5,60 10,00 7 Nicholas Edwards 4,20 6,00 7 Clive James 6,00 10,00 8 Devin Lima 7,00 10,00 8 Vanessa LaFaye 5,21 7,00 8 Grant Goldman 4,21 11,00 9 Thomas S. Monson 4,32 5,00 9 Dilip Kumar 4,24 5,00 9 Olivia Newton-John 5,50 11,00 10 Rayya Elias 7,53 9,00 10 Genesis P-Orridge 4,89 8,00 10 David Cervinski 3,71 10,00 11 Nobby Stiles 6,79 10,00 11 Denis Goldberg 4,80 6,00 11 Barry Du Bois 5,58 9,00 12 Pauline Maroney 4,59 10,00 12 Peter Lorimer 6,57 7,00 12 Peter Thomson 1,80 6,00 13 Sumner Redstone 4,48 5,00 13 Patrick Cryne 7,47 7,00 13 Stuart Fraser 1,73 8,00 14 Liam Miller 10,80 13,00 14 Satoru Anzaki 3,84 6,00 14 Mike Willesee 2,38 7,00 15 Matt Capotelli 4,64 10,00 15 Franco Zeffirelli 5,60 5,00 15 Conway Savage 2,63 9,00 16 Tiffany Youngs 6,90 10,00 16 Bobby Zarin 7,00 7,00 16 Blazo Vuksanovic 5,39 8,00 17 Fernando Ricksen 6,75 13,00 17 Charlotte Rae 5,85 5,00 17 Donna Penny 5,21 10,00 18 Hector Timerman 6,16 11,00 18 Johnny Hubbard 5,40 6,00 18 Tommy Raudonikis 5,23 8,00 19 John McCain 9,00 9,00 19 Anna Pavord 4,25 7,00 19 Thomas Keneally 2,52 6,00 20 Tessa Jowell 6,37 10,00 20 Lindy Remigino 3,60 6,00 20 Jessica Falkholt 6,15 10,00 All 151,784 215 All 110,648 141 All 93,083 183 This is what I have with my teams. This is BEFORE Drop 40 and unique bonusses. Obviously the expected score will change once these bonusses have a probability of either 1 or 0 (i.e. they are known) In the column "base points" you can see my assumptions: For example Marieke Vervoort dies an unnatural death but is not a Drop 40 pick (may be wrong?) Neither do I have Shalom Ouanounou and Emma Hannigan as unique, but Hector Timerman and Pauline Maroney are. I also think that Leah, Nobby, Fernando, John and Tessa will be on the Drop 40. Now... these scores also build on the assumption that my sub Thomas S. Monson replaces Derek Dudley (should be no problem), and that Sumner Redstone replaces Cas Willow (Spade????). It could be that I, and anyone else who picked her, lose these points. Edit: I also want to add that some last minute information isn't in these numbers. For example, Jessica Falkholt being described as a 50:50 case, or Hector Timerman writing a New York Times piece in late December (increasing his obitability). I have to take another look at that. Second edit: If you wonder, why is, for example, Charlotte Rae's expected score higher than her base points? Well, it's because I gave her a chance of getting into the Drop 40, but I wasn't sure enough of it to give her 8 base points.

Not before next weekend. But one thing I could quickly do...the best possible team one could have picked according to my system: Marieke Vervoort (joker) Leah Bracknell Liam Miller John McCain Dean Francis Rayya Elias Patrick Cryne Greg Gilbert Vanessa Goodwin Jason Bragg Bobby Zarin Devin Lima Tiffany Youngs Deborah James Nobby Stiles Fernando Ricksen Peter Lorimer Tessa Jowell Stefan Karl Stefansson Shalom Ouanounou (Carl Piddington) That would have been 167,75 "expected" points. (Cas Willow deleted)

Thanks by the way ;). But Shameless is the bad relative everyone refuses to acknowledge.

Thanks, it was close! One more Yahoo obit for you and...

Yeah, I didn't want to celebrate prematurely. But I think every 'dangerous' death would have been announced by now. So yay, me! Though of course, this will always be the 'minor' Death By Numbers.

I am at least going to make an attempt.

I think/hope that the other woman is Gilbert's sister.

Australia's foremost scientist, Ian Chubb, has stage iv kidney cancer but is now, miraculously, cancer-free: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/02/is-ian-cured-maybe-the-astonishing-cancer-treatment-of-australias-chief-scientist Well, I, for one, am going to chase every bit of news on him. If that makes me a chubby chaser, then so be it.

The cancer mums are crawling onto the BBC pages...

I once picked someone for Shameless 1.0 who had already died a couple of days ago. There was a local QO I could have known. My sub didn't come into play. Also Diana Rots last year with only 16 people. TMIB didn't allow subs in these cases. Derek Dudley died on New Year's eve. So probably after the teams were submitted. And his death wasn't known until every team had been submitted. So the subs come into play. But Cas Willow is a different story. Maybe I'm also unnecessarily confused but I wondered about these things before (like those Deathlist Cup picks who died on the 1st in Australian time but still 31st in UK time and the like.

Will be Spade's first big decision. Are subs for Cas Willow actually coming into play? Derek Dudley is probably uncritical.

She's dead. Check her wife's Facebook page. I actually didn't pick her after all. In my opinion, "widely believed" requires a QO source.

Who's my sub for Cas Willow? Pete Frates...eh...

Sumner Redstone for my main team. Grant Goldman for my theme team. Meh.

Oh wow...

Thank you, it's Nobby Stiles.

Copy/pasted from the pm And now in alphabetic order: 1. Stephen Beer 2. Kathleen Blanco 3. Leah Bracknell 4. Jason Bragg 5. Ami Brown 6. Matt Cappotelli 7. Kevin "Chalky" Carr died without obit 8. Sara Chivers 9. John "Cocksy" Cocks 10. Noel Conway 11. Patrick Cryne 12. Ben Dover 13. Derek Dudley 14. Gareth Dunn 15. Rayya Elias 16. Jessica Falkholt 17. Dean Francis 18. Stuart Fraser 19. Pete Frates 20. Erica Garner 21. Greg Gilbert 22. Zak Gleeson died without obit 23. Vanessa Goodwin 24. Jorie Graham 25. Emma Hannigan 26. Deborah James 27. Devin Lima 28. Peter Lorimer 29. Amy Mattingly 30. Liam Miller (joker) 31. Anna Pavord 32. Genesis P-Orridge 33. Tommy Raudonikis 34. Fernando Ricksen 35. Holly Rowe 36. Conway Savage 37. Steve Smith 38. Valeri Spiridonov 39. Stefan Karl Stefansson 40. Bernard Tapie 41. Hector Timerman 42. Thuy Thanh Truong 43. Morgan Tsvangirai 44. Mohammad Usman died without obit 45. Marieke Vervoort 46. Cas Willow 47. Dawn Wilson 48. Reggie Wright Jr. 49. Tiffany Youngs 50. Bobby Zarin The sub for Derek Dudley is Tessa Jowell. The sub for Erica Garner is Nobby Stiles. The sub for Cas Willow is Lindy Remigino no obit.

Derek Dudley will be the rare 366pointer once the obit appears.

Christoph von Dohnanyi :). Replaced him a week ago.

Other names under consideration: Mehdi Nemmouche - no prisoners! Sal Turturici - The Ray Pfeifer of 2018? I wasn't sure of his uniqueness. And obitabilty, because he was just the 2nd most prominent 9/11 first responder DJ Casper - looks too well Nyssa Burrell - nah, Erica Garner was the one to watch in that department (Jessica Falkholt has a 50:50 chance - good enough for a theme team) Almost picked David Cervinski for my main team because the Guardian covers Aussie Football. Scotland's youngest MND patient - don't have the name right now Another US football guy with ALS. Very common name - Steve Smith? Had main team potential.

I also have to confess something. I now know where DJ Casper hangs out on the internet. He has a vlog. Link coming up. Edit: Can't find something suitable now. Anyway, google "Willie Casper Perry" or"mrctheslideman". He hosts "Classics in the dark". While he looks ok, the statistics alone would still make me pick him.