gcreptile

Update in which everyone (except reserve and theme teams, and Drunkasaskunk) gets a small bonus for Errol Christie, and some even get two small bonusses for having Christie as their joker, TJS, Buckets of Blood and Crossing the Styx. TJS also gets the Perez bonus leading to interesting results. I had Perez' obitability only at 50%, fair bet I think. But I underestimated her mortality because I wasn't sure if her illness was a publicity stunt, nevertheless my B-Team went for it (score currently 136,805). Still, her expected score was only 3.00, leading to a 7pt bonus for the two teams that picked her. Sonny West's obitability is now down to 5%, sorry. Toast gets belated bonus points for Geoffrey Bayldon. One of the teams I watch also had John Noakes, and one had Peter Sallis, I think. 1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (175,24) (---) 2. Thomas Jefferson Survives (175,13) (+2) 3. Golden Slumbers (174,73) (-1) 4. To Kill a Gabor Sister (173,33) (-1) 5. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (163,55) (---) 6. Deceased Hose (161,15) (---) 7. The Love Boat (160,88) (---) 8. Still Life (160,37) (---) 9. drollercoaster (159,14) (+3) 10. Dead Ends (156,6275) (-1) 11. The Living End (155,39) (-1) 12. New Years and Drinks all Night (155,36) (-1) 13. Heading Nowhere (154,82) (---) 14. Crossing the Styx (154,26) (+1) 15. Buckets of Blood (153,10) (+3) 16. Day in the Death (151,79) (-2) 17. I'm sorry for your trouble (149,97) (+2) 18. I will not die, it's the world that will end! (149,83) (-1) 19. Drunkasaskunk (146,71) (-3) 20. This Mortal Coil (144,462) (Re-Entry) Julia Perez could be the gamble of the year, now that TJS has expanded the trio at the top to a quartet. Notice: We might now see an avalanche of relevant deaths, but if not, the next update will not occur before July and will thus be some kind of "half-time" update. I'm thinking about reducing the mortality chance of all people WITHOUT fast-advancing terminal illnesses by 50%. If you picked random old person XYZ without cancer, without late-stage alzheimer's, without late-stage ALS, and without Werdnig-Hoffman syndrome, your pick will see a reduction in probabilistic score because they are in the process of running out the clock. The reduction will not impact the terminal illness picks, because half a year is a sufficient time for their illnesses to advance. For example, Stefan Karl Stefansson currently has a 50% chance of dying in 2017. This will not be reduced after half the year because it could be expected that he dies later in the year anyway, and the time that has passed does not diminish the chance of him eventually becoming a hit this year. But picks like Joseph Ratzinger, or Kenny Sansom, or Yisrael Kristal, they will see their expected score cut in half (in many, but not all cases). I'm thinking of taking this step to get the expected score more in line with the actual scoreboard as the year comes closer to the end. This half-time reduction will not lead to a lot of changes in the Top 20 because those teams mostly went for the unaffected terminal illness-folks. There are basically two main exceptions to this, for one, those we expect to die unnaturally, or as a consequence of an unnatural event (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Anna Holmlund, Kenny Sansom). And secondly, the frail old people whose continued survival might mean that they recovered from their fall/heart attack/stroke/pneunomia/whatever (Bruce Forsyth, Mireille Darc, Joseph Ratzinger,....). But there might be another more drastic reduction at the end of the third quarter, in which everyone but late-stage cancer people gets this reduction.

Two of my three subs are dead now, Christie and Jimmy LaFave. Charlotte Rae is still alive. I really WAS mad.

As far as I could tell most of these reports can be traced back to that one Syrian source. Well, if true, Trump should tweet about it very soon.

Congratulations Cpt.! Though I just want to recall that the Hewlett rule might still lead to another winner if we find out that someone else already died before sunday.

Well, now there's one ;-). But then, I noticed an inflation in notable names. In 2016, the magic number of 7 notable deaths a day was only in danger of being missed on one day, when the 7th death, after months of waiting, was some North Korean official (and it was only the day the death was announced, not necessarily the date of death itself). However, this year, I'm not aware that there was a single day with fewer than 10 notable deaths. That makes today so special. But then sundays are usually slower than other days, because weekend.

Glen Campbell

Yeah, very likely scorer of the month. If only Ray Pfeifer had died in June, my B-Team could have been a competition, as Smith Hart and Paul Van Zandvliet will surely follow.

RIP....tough fighter...he was basically dying for two years.

The Guardian live ticker just retweeted Simon Ricketts and described him as "our own Simon Ricketts". So at least the obit is guaranteed.

Mikis Theodorakis: The Sirtaki guy

I really would love an article on Shameless picks Natalie Daniells and Alan Aspin. Those picks might seal it. Edit: I was really disappointed when Daniells didn't obit!

The "presence on Social Media" also gave Jessica-Jayde Allen an unlikely Mirror obit. It has become an important factor to take into account. That should bode well for future cancer bloggers, Let's Play-ers and other You Tube celebrities. In a way, The Mirror is ahead of the others.

He always said that his current treatment keeps the cancer at bay until 2017. So it's right on time. It's why he was the first name I suggested for 2018 in the Possibilities thread.

Brooke Verity Cochran, at one point the world's most famous surrogate mom for carrying the quadruples of a gay couple, dead from drug abuse at 37: https://www.bioedge.org/bioethics/ms-surrogate-mother-of-2002-passes-away-at-37/12339 Read the story if you want to find out how sometimes everything turns into shit.

Well, it would suit Deadsox' extraordinary campaign to win with a pick his opponent brought into public knowledge but rejected him in this.

Yeah, that name is/was gold. But it appears that research is now so good that such a pick is hardly unique anymore -though yes, I also thought there was a chance since I got to know him by a german news article (evading the typical search patterns.) However, the 6 base points are not that many. And he also is more likely to die this year, I think.

Tough times for a lucky obit. Too much news. And it's weekend. Maybe the Telegraph backlog?

Nobody picked Julia Perez? We were sooo bad.

Death of the year for me.

I guess May will try to keep in power any way possible and enter the Brexit talks with a 1-2-seat majority awkwardly cobbled together. That majority will fall apart after a couple of weeks/months and re-elections will result in Prime Minister Corbyn.

This is the third electoral mess of the current Tory era, after Scottish Independence and Brexit. The third 50:50-outcome that is decided by a hair's breadth. This cannot be good for the health of the country. And some people want Brexit vote 2.0, or ScotInd. 2.0, and they'll probably get election 2.0 (with 1.0 an unnecessary snap election). These have been messy years. Apparently Britain doesn't know what it wants.

Theresa May is the worst leading politician I've seen in a long time... though Trump may be worse. Such good tactics, but such miserable strategy... Edit: A hung parliament is good for Corbyn? As it will extend the campaign and prepares new elections?

Same, sorry Joey, I missed that you already posted the obit.

Daily Mail, of course: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4583070/Journalist-Jill-Singer-dies-aged-60-terminal-illness.html

Is this event only fun because they know it could be their turn this year?