gcreptile

1. Gordon Banks 2. Dick Van Dyke 3. Stan Lee 4. Fernando Ricksen 5. Angela Lansbury 6. Shannen Doherty 7. Donald Trump 8. Jerry Lewis 9. Paul Gascoigne 10. Chuck Berry 11. Queen Elizabeth II 12. Stephen Hawking 13. Prince Philip 14. Doris Day 15. Prunella Scales 16. Val Kilmer 17. Helen Fawkes 18. Jimmy Carter 19. Ian Brady 20. Olivia De Havilland 21. Valerie Harper 22. Hugh Hefner 23. Robert Mugabe 24. Vera Lynn 25. Mary Tyler Moore Good luck everyone!

Next update after correcting for Drop 40 and unique picks (only 99% complete): 1. The Love Boat - 144,77 2. A Day in the Death - 142,66 3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals - 140,49 4. Pan Breed - 136,2 5. To Kill a Gabor Sister - 135,73 6. Thomas Jefferson Survives - 135,395 7. Golden Slumbers - 135,13 8. Garn2 - 133,1 9. Still Life - 131,26 10. drol 130,94 11. I'm sorry for your trouble - 130,15 12. The Living End 127,55 Point boosts to everyone because of all the Drop 40 picks, now that the probability isn't somehwere between zero and one, but either zero or one. And it turns out that there wasn't THAT much of a difference between the participants on this forum and the general public. Surprising Drop 40 members like Errol Christie and John Wetton outweigh the cases of "random universally known old people"; like Jacuqes Chirac or Pope Benedikt XVI. I would say that the quality of deadpooling has improved in comparison to last year. The new people entering the DDP had a good look at the forum before submitting. For the next update, I want to find the Top Ten candidates who have not presented their teams in the forum before.

Did Cancerous Hatred 2 take away the unique pick of Salvatore Di Masi from Cancerous Hatred 1?

Ha! I expected A Pelican in the Wilderness to pick Dmitri Hvorotstovsky, to take away a possible unique hit from me, turns out they picked DJ Casper instead, to the same effect. But then, if he had been unique, it would have been a gift to me. Great new optics TMIB, and stellar work already! John Wetton Top 40, also interesting and possibly important. They actually picked Donald Trump in droves.... interesting.

Elton John cancels Dubai concert for the second time as doctors urge him to treat his condition immediately: http://www.arabianbusiness.com/pop-legend-elton-john-postpones-dubai-concert-for-second-time-659257.html#.WHfGLvnhCUk

Creator of Siri, the artificial intelligence, Dag Kittlaus, has pancreatic cancer: http://www.recode.net/2017/1/12/14230982/siri-creator-dag-kittlaus-exam-pancreatic-tumor-silicon-valley It is the low-aggressive kind that killed Steve Jobs. Kittlaus does not seem to share Jobs' preference for 'alternative treatment' however.

The compiler, Christopher Steele, is now in hiding because he fears for his life: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/12/intelligence-sources-vouch-credibility-donald-trump-russia-dossier-author(at the very bottom).

Comedian Quincy Jones, who was given one year to live in August 2015 because of stage IV mesothelioma, to headline the Jukebox Comedy Club this weekend: http://www.pjstar.com/entertainmentlife/20170111/32-year-old-comic-with-terminal-cancer-headlines-jukebox-comedy-club

Who knows, even Popes abdicate nowadays.

This could be the first deadpool you can win without having a hit.

Kevin Murray, also known as "Flat Cap" for his role in last year's Regency Hotel shooting, deteriorating at rapid rate from ALS: http://www.herald.ie/news/regency-hotel-attack-suspect-is-dying-in-hospital-court-told-35355260.html I had to decide whether to pick Catherine Nevin or Kevin Murray for my main team. It could be I made the wrong decision, but it depends on the qualifying obit.

Update on DDP and Deathrace pick Alan Aspin, who is surprising his doctors by still being alive: http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/prisoner-sent-home-die-after-12430897 The announcement that he had "days to live" was not because of the cancer but because of septicaemia after the tumour burst.

Incredible, my pick Moorie Boogaart just keeps on knitting and knitting... http://www.wzzm13.com/features/the-hat-man-continues-to-knit-receives-yarn-donation-from-georgia-company/382563317

Was NOT in China for cancer treatment: http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/01/09/1661107/bong-go-denies-duterte-sought-cancer-treatment-china

I'm in. I had a similar idea a couple of weeks ago, but December is a bad time to start a new deadpool. I would have called it the Bullet Deadpool where the aim would have been to name the person to die next. And when he/she dies you get a point and name the next person, and so on. Obviously, the head-to-head matchups make it far more exciting.

Shaun's new avatar pierces my soul.

I'm not home until tomorrow, but I intend to post some kind of rolling scoreboard according to my predictions a couple of pages prior. The score according to my probabilities will get updated whenever one of the "big names" dies. The death of Mario Soares probably won't change much, because my probabilistic score for him was already around 5pts (I'm not quite sure, but I think I gave him a 95% chance of dying in 2017 and a 10% chance of making the Drop 40.). If Soares made the Drop 40, all calculated team scores of those who had him, will increase by 3. The death of Peter Sarstedt will definitely change the score. I thought he only had a 40%-50% chance of dying this year. So from my point of view, he was a gamble that paid off. I'm interested in how the final scores will resemble my initial calculations. Though I guess that already adjusting for unique/non-unique picks, slightly distorts things. After all, I am interested in finding a "statistics based" method of picking the right people. So the calculation has to be correct before uniqueness is known.

Peter Sarstedt is a hit for me here.

It seems there actually was a spike in DDP submissions after christmas. I guess every new member has her picked, because she was nr.1 target of the search for "who's next". So I guess she'll be on at least 70 teams. Maybe Mario Soares will be on there as well...

Ricki Javon Gray is in a state with a democratic governor, so there's always the chance of a pardon. The other "candidate" is in Texas.

Let's see if he obits beyond the local BBC pages.

My condolences

Thank you! Proud to have won, and many thanks to our hosts. If there is a prize... I don't know... I guess Cancer Research UK may be an idea.

If the reaper takes a break, then Saward, Wass and Pretre next week?

Paul went away and Douglas was. (sorry)