gcreptile

My condolences

Thank you! Proud to have won, and many thanks to our hosts. If there is a prize... I don't know... I guess Cancer Research UK may be an idea.

If the reaper takes a break, then Saward, Wass and Pretre next week?

Paul went away and Douglas was. (sorry)

Academic study says world would be taken over by zombies within 100 days: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/05/zombie-apocalypse-would-wipe-humankind-just-100-days-according/

Also in french: http://www.slate.fr/story/133025/deathlist-liste-morts

Not including her was the worst decision of the committee, in my opinion. While I did not predict pneunomia, there had to be a successor for Zsa Zsa Gabor in the "flamboyant, elderly woman" department.Does Honor Blackman not count? I don't know, are there stories of her flamboyance I don't know about? (I know them of Tippi Hedren, for example.)

Not including her was the worst decision of the committee, in my opinion. While I did not predict pneunomia, there had to be a successor for Zsa Zsa Gabor in the "flamboyant, elderly woman" department.

Roy Head, of "Threat her right" fame, in critical condition after aorta rupture: http://www.wideopencountry.com/sundance-heads-father-hospitalized/ Edit: Or maybe this belongs in a different thread, as he is not as much "country" as his son.

So how are they related to Stefan Karl Stefansson? I think they both had sex with kids or something....... ...... ALLEGEDLY!! In all fairness I would definitely do the original Stephanie actress now.You and me both.A threesome then. Whoa,this is turning into a completely different site. A site about... le petit mort.

Australian monarchists urged to prepare for the Queen's death: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jan/05/australian-monarchists-urged-to-brace-for-the-death-of-the-queen

Why not Elizabeth 2 - the sequel (or what about - The Empire Strikes Back)

Jesus Christ how much IS the Drop 40 bonus?? Three points - (10+3)*2=26

Another post (I must be crazy)... could Greg Gilbert make the Drop 40? That would have been the elusive 26-point-joker after all...

An idea, age-record breaking cyclist Robert Marchand: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/04/105-year-old-man-sets-record-cycling-14-miles-hour-robert-marchand

I forgot to think about Val Kilmer and Shannen Doherty. Both are candidates. I'll update my guesses. Edit: Kilmer and Doherty replace Skellern and Wetton.

On twitter, Julie Bindel says that Jill Saward (anti-rape campaigner) is very ill...I guess that means something.

Edit: posted something in an incredibly wrong thread...

Let me see... The spike in new participants will probably lead to an increase in "household" names, so more Kirk Douglas, less Errol Christie... let's see 1. Kirk Douglas 2. Billy Graham 3. Prince Philipp 4. Queen Elizabeth II 5. Leah Bracknell 6. Vera Lynn 7. Clive James 8. Bruce Forsyth 9. Paul Gascoigne 10. George Bush Sr. 11. Joost Van Der Westhuizen 12. George Bush Sr. 13. Jacques Chirac 14. Olivia De Havilland (somehow decreasing her standing in spite of her three-digit-age) 15. Gordon Downie 16. Glen Campbell 17. Jimmy Carter 18. Valerie Harper (people "give up" on her) 19. Peter Sallis 20. Stan Lee 21. Ian Brady 22. King Michael of Romania 23. Tony Booth 24. Mary Tyler Moore 25. Jake Lamotta Now it's not in order anymore 26. Doris Day 27. Robert Mugabe 28. Denis Norden 29. Stephen Hawking 30. Desmond Tutu 31. Terry Jones 32. Betty White And then it gets interesting: 33. Daisy Berkowitz? (possible, he was on it before, but people may get tired of picking him, just when the time is right) 34. Val Kilmer (very prominent Daily Mail fodder) 35. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (was on it before I think?) 36. Shannen Doherty (she's probably actually seriously ill) 37. Jerry Lewis? (possibly dropping a few places, that one interview might have gone both ways) 38. Jimmy Snuka? (I'd guess so) 39. Pope Benedikt XVI (likely choice, I'd say) 40. Hugh Hefner? (all those rumours of ill health) But these last names could easily get kicked out by, say, Peter Skellern - apparently popular enough, but the announcement of his illness was a little hidden behind his desire to become a priest. John Wetton - right on the cusp of the Drop 40 I'd say, maybe just a tad too insider-y Greg Gilbert - like John Wetton, only a better pick Gordon Banks (nr. 29 in 2016) - though I think he's too healthy to appear again Dick Van Dyke (nr. 38 in 2016) - though people might also judge him as too healthy Stefan Karl Stefansson - because of his internet fame Valeri Spiridonov Errol Christie - his appearance on the DeathList might just be indicative of enough fame Nobby Stiles - a better pick than Gordon Banks, in my opinion Lord Carrington - must be a prominent pick for new players Who will not appear? Herman Wouk, Pierre Cardin, Javier Perez De Cuellar, Bob Dole, Mario Soares, Leslie Phillips, David Rockefeller, Chuck Berry (has a new album out!), John Noakes, Henry Kissinger, Helmut Kohl Though I guess it might be possible, if new players look at the DeathList in the final days in 2016 and go "Herman Wouk is still alive!" (where have I heard that before?), him, or Dole, Kohl, De Cuellar, Kissinger or Phillips may appear. That would probably mean that Wetton, or Christie are out.

French conductor Georges Pretre, dead at 92: http://slippedisc.com/2017/01/viennas-favourite-maestro-dies-aged-92/ He was on my longlist, could have been this year's Pierre Boulez... Also dead, "eminent" british pianist Anthony Goldstone at 72: http://slippedisc.com/2017/01/eminent-british-pianist-has-died/

I don't know...somehow I still expect the passing of some minor name to alter the scoreboard. I'll accept the victory in two, three days.

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts. 86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances). The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat). The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort. Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise). DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team) TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out) TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus = Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus = Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66 Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47 Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu = Cancel My Appointments: JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56 RadGuy: Dead as a Doornail: Still Life: (I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.) Love to know what you make of my crumbles!! I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.Please do mine, I have my team in my signature and my own personal analysis on this page. Done, and done. Gooseberry Crumble, while your teams may not score highest, I think they are very classy teams, full of interesting stories. None of those "cancer-celebrities". And it looks as if two of your teams will score higher than me in my first year. Also, I couldn't check all the new people very thoroughly. Sometimes you don't read any news about new people, are they just content to be left alone, or is health the reason? It's often hard to tell. So if you know these people better than me (surely true for UK authors and scandinavian politicians), and you know their half-secret health issues, your score will be higher than what I have calculated. If age is the reason someone was picked, I give a probability according to the fatality risk of a US social security recipient (statistics are available online). There is some adjustment if a person has heart troubles, is retired, looks bad, or gives interviews and the like... An 85 year old person basically has about a 15% of dying in the next 12 months, statistically. So it's 6 base points (for octogenarians) * 0,15 = 0,9. This is then multiplied with the chance of obiting. The base points get multiplied by the chance of being a unique hit, a Drop 40 pick, or the likelihood of an unnatural death. So, a unique 85-year old with 90% chance of obiting (say, some classical musician) but no chance of Drop 40 or unnatural death and no extraordinary health problems gets (6+1*3)*0,15*0,9= 1,215 Some stage IV lung cancer patient (say, 80% of dying this year), say 56 years old, 50% obit chance, no chance of being unique or Drop 40 gets 9*0,8*0,5= 3,6 So, the scoring system favours cancer celebrities, but then what can you do... Edit: Ok, enough deadpooling for now, I hardly got anything done at home in the past days...

I think I've read that team name somewhere before...

My team: 1.Emma Morano (joker) 99*2 = 198pts 2. Mark Sims (no obit) 3. Sharon Laws replaced with John Andretti 4. Joost Van Der Westhuizen 71pts (+10) 5. Daisy Berkowitz replaced with Liu Xiaobo 55pts 6. DJ Casper 7. Kevin Murray (aka Flat Cap) replaced with Smith Hart 48pts 8. [Greg Gilbert] replaced with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi 9. Stefan Karl Stefansson 10. [Valeri Spiridonov] replaced with Ami Brown 11. Mao Kobayashi 82pts 12. Julia "Jupe" Perez 80pts 13. Paul Van Zandfliet 66pts 14. Ray Pfeifer (9/11 first respondent) 58pts 15. Leah Bracknell 16. Gordon Downie 64pts (+10) 17. Lisa Magill 82pts 18. Ben Suisala (no obit) 19. Hannah Lyson 96pts 20. Connie Johnson 77pts Subs: 1. Irfon Williams 2. Nick Boles 3. Steve Gleason Good luck everyone!

My team for linking purposes: 01. Egidius Braun (WILDCARD) 02. Christie Brimberry 03. Violet Brown - Supercentennarian 04. Colin Butts 05. Bessie Camm - Supercentennarian 06. Matt Hirst - Opera Singer 07. Clare Hollingworth 08. Joachim Kaiser 09. Barys Kit 10. Yisrael Kristal 11. Carsten Mohren 12. Emma Morano 13. Richard Arvine Overton 14. Robert C Prince III/Bobby Prince 15. David Rockefeller 16. Zuzana Rusickova 17. Ron Samworth - Jazz Guitarist 18. Utz Jurgen Schneider - Real Estate Tycoon 19. Jakucho Setouchi 20. Renee Simonot 21. Jimmy Snuka 22. Valery Spiridonov 23. Zhou Youguang 24. Jessi Zazu 25. Andres Zaldivar/El Chico Zaldivar - Chilean Politician Reserves: A. Virginia McLaurin B. Kirk Douglas