gcreptile

Indeed, a real shame that the relevant celebrity deaths were almost completely frontloaded this year. Most of the interesting DDP action happened in the first 5 months. I might even win the Hare's Death Pool with only 6 hits if I have one more death this year. Because even though other teams have had more hits, mine came relatively late ( I'm waiting for my lung cancer stricken joker to die any day now. He gave his farewell stage appearance in September.). I'm also really surprised my picks Prince Mikasa and Peter Vaughan haven't died yet. Either one would also give me the win because my picks 1 and 2 were well-chosen. And to win with only 3 hits out of candidates also tells me that the celebrity death guessing game ran out of steam pretty dramatically after May. I think the "good but not great" picks like Tony Booth, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Billy Graham and the like, that whole group underperformed. Edit: Ha, Jimmy Hill is exactly one of those "good, but not great" picks!

Franco Zeffirelli had pneunomia in October and is back in hospital because of complications or something: http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/society/Zeffirelli-in-Klinik-wegen-Folgen-einer-Lungenentzuendung;art411,2057858(german link) The family however assures that his state is not critical.

John Glenn looking like an old potato but otherwise ok, on stage with Bill Clinton last month: http://thelantern.com/2015/11/bill-clinton-speaks-of-the-importance-of-cooperation-during-ohio-state-visit/

So, Kim Jong-Un's aunt Kim Kyong-Hui IS alive, but now purged from all major posts: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2015/12/18/68/0501000000AEN20151218003600315F.html

Maybe add Dolores O'Riordan, also known as The Queen of Limerick, to the line-up: http://www.herald.ie/news/courts/im-the-queen-dolores-shouted-before-headbutting-garda-in-attack-34294366.html A criminal conviction could have her have access to her children blocked. (Feel free to move this into a different thread, but the parallels between Sinead and Dolores are so obvious!)

Released from hospital, was nearly dead because of double pneunomia: http://www.countryweekly.com/news/merle-haggard-released-hospital-says-he-was-nearly-dead

More a "who should be on the Death List in 2020" kind of thing, but eventually, Tippi Hedren should be on there. She's rather interesting, I think.

While they did kill his character on The Big Bang Theory, he'll appear there today as a ghost: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/big-bang-theory-bob-newhart-839157

Hastert had a stroke in November shortly after pleading guilty: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/dennis-hastert-stroke-hospital During that time he also had two back surgeries and hopes to be released in January.

Reportedly he has died according to this: https://twitter.com/David_Pederson/status/677277883249860608 Jeez. not even 2 months...

Also, they're nominated for a Grammy (awards in February 2016). Depending on the date of death, everything is possible.

Richard Burton's "last surviving" brother Graham Jenkins dead at 88: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-35103478 He also acted as Burton's stage double and kissed Liz Taylor once!

Minelli's sister Lorna Luft now cancer-free: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3358036/Lorna-Luft-63-reveals-free-breast-cancer-three-year-battle.html

Luis Bermejo, aka Bermejo, spanish illustrator who worked for DC comics and also several British publications, has died at 84: http://robot6.comicbookresources.com/2015/12/comics-a-m-spanish-artist-luis-bermejo-rojo-passes-away/

Jimmy Walker, Northern Irish motorcycle journalist, has died after a long illness at 78: http://www.newsletter.co.uk/sport/motorcycling-news/motorcycling-journalist-jimmy-walker-has-died-1-7118078

Former WWE head of security Jim Dotson is dead at 49: http://www.wrestlezone.com/news/652781-former-wwe-head-of-security-jim-dotson-passes-away

I do believe that wrestling is a great special interest for this, though, and I don't like that I don't really have any idea or interest at all about this sport. Wrestling is so interesting for us because it has one of the highest [fame received vs. money earned] quotients. I mean, politicians, famous actors, singers and so on, have the money to get good treatment for all their ailments. But wrestlers often end up broke and are left to deal with their significant health troubles alone. I guess boxers fall into a similar category, unless they had their several-million-dollar fight/shot at a WC. Reality TV stars are similar, but possibly trickier because they disappear from public view as quick as they enter it.

True. Pick 20 nonagenarians who actually die and you're most likely winning. Even better, pick 19 nonagenarians who die, plus the younger celebrity with terminal cancer already in hospice, barely surviving the previous year etc... and make them your joker. That's 110+ points guaranteed. Rotten Ali's probably got stats somewhere about the likelihood of a DDP team scoring a Perfect 20, but even then, DQSP and The Living End have both posted winning scores that would get beyond the 20 nonagenerians dying team. Essentially true, the new scoring system has existed since 2007, so 9 competitions, and you'd only have won in 3 of them with that score (2010, 2012, and as it stands now, 2015). On the other hand, you would never have been worse than 2nd. And there will always be the one younger sure goner that is your joker. Also, with 20 deaths, there is a higher chance of a death on the 13th. A two-thirds chance even (Since there's no inherent reason in any certain date being more fatal than others, except for changes in inheritance law, the chance is 20 hits out of 28/29/30/31 days). So you're more likely to end up with 108 than with 105 points (2/3rds squared chance 0,4356 chance of 111 pts), which also gives you the win in 2014 and 2009, the tie in 2008. And there's the marginal higher chance of someone dying on their birthday, simply because you have more hits than you would have with a riskier strategy. And the winner in 2007 had 109 points. And in the case of a tie, the number of hits decides. So the strategy is a statistical winner. Of course, this requires that the probability of the nonagenarian dying within that year is 100%. A tough proposition, and under that 100% chance, younger and riskier picks might turn out to be the better picks. Edit: Maybe the Man in Black knows how many picks have died on the 13th. Maybe people actively try to avoid that date of their death, I could imagine. But it's not against statistics that the current leader in hits (not points) has a "died on the 13th" bonus with John McCabe.

Nigerian News is your source for that? Lmao (Edit: ok I had my doubts as it sounded fahkin familiar; that article is from 2013 mate. Follow the link it is citing. That's the grandson saying that quote it's old hat. SC) Oh, you're right! Ah well, the secondary sources sounded good. But now it's understandable why the article is so multi-faceted in tone. It's cobbled together from many things. Ah well, my feeling has retreated.

True. Pick 20 nonagenarians who actually die and you're most likely winning. Even better, pick 19 nonagenarians who die, plus the younger celebrity with terminal cancer already in hospice, barely surviving the previous year etc... and make them your joker. That's 110+ points guaranteed.

ALS deaths are so rare that I don't have a good feeling "trusting" them. There are days when I think this is the end of Joost Van Der Westhuizen, for example, when his spine needs stabilization with some plastic...thingie... and then he looks better again... I noticed that there are pretty many former sports stars, especially football stars with ALS, O.J. Brigance is another one of them. I don't know, that kind of ALS might be something different than "ordinary ALS" which killed the "Still Alice" director early in the year, Richard Glatzer. But Glatzer was already old and maybe that's a factor. And money might be a huge factor, so stars survive longer than 'ordinary' people, and this shorter lifespan of ordinary people gives the wrong statistical impression for ALS. On the other hand, these cases could prove to be profitable gambles, because these people give lots of points. Alzheimer's... the median survival prognosis is 10 years. But it could be that people with Alzheimer's also die of other reasons, not from Alzheimer's, especially when they're old. I mean Tony Booth is now at 10 years since diagnosis, so he's more likely to die now than not. But maybe that's because a 84 year old man could also die from heart failure or something like that. My current shortlist of 50 people has 3 with ALS and Alzheimer's, Booth and Van der Westhuizen among them. I have more confidence in people who suddenly experience a sudden health downturn. For example, I had scottish writer William McIllvaney under consideration after he canceled several events in mid-year. My feeling also says that Merle Haggard will go in 2016 but my mind does not want to pick him. I already know, I'll feel angry not to pick him. Or Helmut Schmidt, the hospitalization in mid-year started his downward spiral. The resistance of a person collapses at some point.

Health has declined "quite a bit": http://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2015/12/billy-grahams-health-worsens-grandson-asks-for-prayers/ "He is close to going home with the Lord"... ladies and gentlemen... this is the record... (the article goes on in a less dramatic fashion, but I have a feeling...)

Willi Betz, founder of the transportation company with his name has died at 88: http://www.swp.de/reutlingen/lokales/reutlingen/Willi-Betz-Mit-88-Jahren-gestorben;art5674,3588285(link in german) Notable because you almost cannot avoid their vehicles on any central european highway:

From that article: "John J. Rigas, who is a 12-year prison term for looting the cable company and lying about its finances [...]". Apparently his first lie didn't kill him, so why trust him now? Hehe indeed, I have yet to see one of these "I am terminally ill and need to get out of prison" types that actually admitted their crimes at court, an honest criminal, so to say.

Throw the dice with John J. Rigas (91), founder of Adelphia Communications, and ex-owner of the Buffalo Sabres: http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/adelphias-rigas-asks-for-release-from-prison-20151214 His company was a big player in the US cable television industry until it went bankrupt of internal corruption and Rigas went to prison. Now he's seeking a compassionate release because of terminal cancer which leaves him with 1-6 months to live. Just before his comapany's implosion he received the alternative Nobel Prize, oops... But is he obitable? And can we believe him?