gcreptile

You say that you sometimes forget to take your meds... well, I never take them.

But how else can I get closer... to you...?

Yes, I remember last year the Cup really burned me out. At some point, enough is enough.

German jazz musician and holocaust survivor, Coco Schumann, dead at 93: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-5324761/Jazz-musician-Nazi-camp-survivor-Coco-Schumann-dies-93.html As a jew, he literally played for his life - at the concentration camp.

This combination was irresistible for the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jan/28/dennis-peron-medical-marijuana-california-dies

Dennis Peron, double points for LGBT and marijuana activist, dead at 71 from lung cancer: https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Dennis-Peron-called-father-of-medical-12531260.php

Last week, I read a book on Howard Hughes, one of my top 5 favourite historical celebrities. His thread would have been spectacular. Also, I've been thinking about a Howard Hughes-related theme team, but most interesting people have died. His cousin, William Lummis, died last year. Senator Bob Bennett, who apparently was a double agent at one point, was a DDP pick and died 2 years ago. Clifford Irving just died... Some of the survivors are former wives/girlfriends/rumoured girlfriends: Olivia De Havilland and Terry Moore. Or his former attorney Frank Morse. Or maybe some of the people who played him on film, especially Dean Stockwell (and Warren Beatty?). Possibly also Stan Lee who modeled Tony Stark/Iron Man after Hughes. But I think it's hard to get more than 10 names.

Team submitted, I hope they all pass (the notability test, and away) Good luck Mr. Key.

The theme team league will most likely go to P@F only girls.

I really like bladan's new avatar. I think I am going to change mine soon as well.

There might be something wrong with Australian Idol winner Stan Walker: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-5318837/Stan-Walker-eats-healthy-salad-amid-health-concerns.html Could it be the cancer gene he inherited?

I cannot calculate scores for every team...well I could, but it would take weeks or months. But as the year goes on, the official scoreboard might change and the teams that do very well, will all be calculated, too.

Chris Betancourt is now talking to Peter Jackson after never having watched the Lord of the Rings movies: http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/peter-jackson-sends-message-to-terminally-ill-lord-of-the-rings-fan-a8180846.html Apparently, the Independent is unable to spell his name right and calls him "Bentacourt" and "Belancourt".

The coup or the hospitalization?

You know what's weirder? We both called her "Bowlen" although her last name is "Bowler". Edit: I wouldn't rule out an obit. Depends on how the story goes.

This will be an interesting year. Safe teams vs. risky teams, statistics vs. gut feeling, almost even Drop 40 bonuses vs. unique bonuses (personal feeling: the Drop 40 bonus should go down to 2 pts). This will be a good test if my statistics are of bigger use, because Dead Ends is doing about a pick better than anyone else. If he doesn't finish at or near the top with his statistically sound picks, then it shows that you're better off with gut feeling. Oh yeah, and my gut feeling says that I am going to win. But that's not THAT unusual, considering I submitted only 3 weeks ago, and so far, nothing has happened that would change my opinion. I should have swapped my subs Sumner Redstone (second sub) and José José (third sub) though. But ironically, I'm still doing better than I would have if Cas Willow had lived for another week.

At first glance, yes, you belong there. Yes, I saw that. I "only" have about 40 teams scored right now. Deceased Hose slipped through, probably because I thought that I had already scored him when I went through the whole list. If I see that another team is doing very well, I will add them as well.

What's your team?

Duke University professor Kate Bowler has incurable stage IV cancer: http://time.com/5118044/kate-bowler-interview-cancer-faith/ She's a theologist, author and blogger and her illness has made her go "meta".

Ah, the unique bonus for Efrain Rios Montt was still missing in your probabilistic score. I think there are a few of such bonuses still missing.

Yes, it's probably that instead of Jowell! The probabilistic score actually still has him at 10 base points. But the point potential has him at 9 base points. These cases are a little debatable. I mean, maybe 9,4 would be right... I might change Rickett's probabilistic score after his birthday.

Stefan Karl Stefansson 6,50 13,00 Stefan Karl Stefansson 6,5 13,00 DJ Casper 4,50 10,00 Liam Miller 11,05 13,00 Linda Nolan 4,80 12,00 John McCain 9,00 9,00 Nobby Stiles 7,00 10,00 Patrick Cryne 11,00 11,00 Leah Bracknell 10,80 12,00 Rayya Elias 12,00 12,00 Vanessa Goodwin 7,00 10,00 Tessa Jowell 7,00 10,00 Tiffany Youngs 6,00 10,00 Greg Gilbert 7,80 13,00 Gabriele Grunewald 3,64 13,00 Dean Francis 7,00 10,00 Total Biscuit 4,00 10,00 Steffan Lewis 4,20 10,00 Pete Frates 5,40 10,00 Marieke Vervoort 14,77 16,00 Simon Ricketts 8,19 12,00 158,1525 239 Hmm... I could imagine that you only have 3 pts Drop 40 bonus for Stefan Karl instead of the 6. And then you might have Tessa Jowell at 11 pts, but she turned 70 last September.

I already found a mistake, Vanessa Goodwin is worth 10pts, not 9. So you're at 239! I wonder what the difference is....

About Dead Ends' team... those Drop 40 bonuses of Catherine Nevin and Simon Ricketts are really strong. One might be a fraud, and one has obitability problems and his cancer is being managed. But statistically, a terminal brain tumour and pancreatic cancer are just too strong. I also have a feeling that out of Greg Gilbert and Stefan Karl Stefansson only one of them is going to die this year. But a 13-pointer with a 50:50 probability of dying is also pretty strong... Then there is DJ Casper, who was looking ok in his vlog, a bit of a dicey pick, but statistically sound. Steve Gleason has outlived his prognosis, but he looks much better than Fernando Ricksen, he can still smile. I think his former bulky-ness extends his life.

Here's a ranking of the point potential, i.e. what's the score with 20 hits (no birthday bonuses, unnatural death only for Marieke Vervoort). (This chart might yet be incomplete because of some missing unique bonuses...or errors) 1. Dead Ends (242) 2. Deceased Hose (241) 3. GUN - Gabriele Grunewald edition (239) 4. Shaun of the Dead 69 (238) 5. Day in the Death (235) 5. Dead Wait (235) 7. Life Flies by so Fast (234) 7. GUN - Ami Brown edition (234) 7. People who I think might die in 2018 ...united (234) 10. GUN - Ami Brown edition (233) 11. Cancel My Appointments (231) 12. The Love Boat (230) 13. Sovereign Reaper (228) 14. Thomas Jefferson Survives (227) 15. Still Life (225) 15. Banana's Peel Slippers (225) 17. Pan Breed (223) 18. Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet (222) 18. Wormer! He's a Dead Man! etc.. etc... (222) - without points for Jan Burgess - so potentially much higher! 20. Bucket of Blood (220) 21. I'm sorry for your trouble (219) These numbers are basically Shameless numbers. It's the strength of the Drop 40 bonus, a 32-point joker in Marieke Vervoort (compare to 24pts of Mark Sims), and quite a few young people with stage IV cancer. The Drop 40 bonus is dividing people into two camps I think, the "hive mind" of the forum, i.e. joker Marieke Vervoort or some other forum only name (Elias, Cryne), and the more casual dead poolers. I could imagine that we will see some fairly big score divide around place 40-50.