Predictor

As your tagline? Sure. As a future DDP team name? Why not. But to use that as your new member name would be awful. Deathray is just fine (although it is a liiittle cliche-y when new members have the word "death/dead" in their username here, lol).

The Dutch-American actor Robert Boon (1916-2015) has died aged 98. He was born in Haarlem and died in California. RIP

Is it a sign of immaturity that the first thing I thought of when seeing this thread was a bunch of French housecats having a good time or summat? Just askin'...don't judge!

You like posting in this thread more than BG likes bumping "Deathlist 2014" Still good point though, although there's a few errors there in the murky depths of those old pages. You probably shouldn't spend too long poking around in those dusty old things you'll give yourself chronic hackingcoughitis or summat. The reason I looked at those old DL versions was because I wanted to see which celebs have been picked most times. So far, those with 10+ appearences are... Clive Dunn: 16 Queen Mother: 14 Ronald Reagan: 14 Ronnie Biggs: 13 Bob Hope: 13 Kirk Douglas: 12 Eli Wallach: 12 Pope John Paul: 12 Fidel Castro: 11 Michael Foot: 11 Katharine Hepburn: 11 Barbara Cartland: 11 Kurt Waldheim: 11 Jake Lamotta: 10 General Pinochet: 10 John Mills: 10 Alistair Cooke: 10 Don Bradman: 10 And yes, I appear to post a lot in this thread. Sorry, I'll see to it that I tone it down a bit in the future. No need to apologise that is valuable data that you have collated. I don't think Kirk Douglas will beat Clive Dunn. Update: Btw, is there a "DL-statistics" thread or something to that extent in this website?

Yes, knowing the baseline probability is important, and many people make the mistake of completely ignoring the baseline and just focusing on the specifics. Mean probabilities can be very helpful if you wanna come up a rough estimate for a random 98 year old male/female for whom you can't find any reliable (medical) information. However, these figures are only averages, so they should be adjusted to account for any additional details that you can find about these people. For Olivia, you could probably use the baseline figure, since there's no reliable information on how she is affected by common age-related related diseases. On the other hand, for Kirk, you need to calculate the CONDITIONAL probability of a 98 year old man dying this year PROVIDED he doesn't suffer from serious cognitive impairment (at his age, a positive prognostic indicator), and is still active (publishing books, occasionally giving interviews and publishing articles/posts) etc. Of course, the adverse prognostic indicators, like his disabling stroke should also be taken into account. Why I wouldn't say that activity is perfectly correlated with survival chances, I would insist that being active close to 100 is indicative of a better than average prognosis, while the lack of info in Olivia's case leaves us with the baseline as the best available estimate. Well, I know more about Olivia's health than I'm able to share here, but rest assured that she's in good health.

She was 20 teams away from making it to the Drop 40 list...

I hate to be a nitpicker but the Misao Okawa picture is not Misao Okawa. It's another super-centenarian named Tome Takaoka. Also, Rick Ross was not born in 1926. Just sayin'.

Spotting the new features...Let’s see here... *I can’t access my profile unless I’m logged in. *I can see which people liked a certain post without logging in. *Every member can see all my liked posts right below the Profile Feed button. *The ”0 warning points” text is new. *The ”Most Liked Content” for the forum is also new. Anything else new?

I got my first hit today. Nothing to be "proud" of since it was a super-centenarian, but 3 is still better than 0, I reckon. :24087468:

Why? I think this "thread" should be locked by now. Basically, if the admin team starts allowing people make topics that single out individual members, then it will set a bad precedent for thread-makers. What will stop someone from making a "Top 100 Reasons why Predictor Sucks" in the future? I may be a bit biased because I think Zorders is cool and all, but my comment applies to whomever this thread would've been aimed towards.

Julie Adams will be surely be around for a long time to come: https://www.facebook.com/OfficialJulieAdams Btw, what's the point with the 15 back-ups to your 150 names?

Or you could keep your 50 lines in the signature but hide them with spoiler tags. But I guess that's not "exhibitionistic" enough since everyone seems to think that their lists are interesting to others.

1. Being less active does not hint at being in bad health. Some people just prefer to retire in peace and quiet. She has been in the limelight since her late teens; so it's not shocking that she would want to quit acting since 1979. Not everyone craves attention all the time. 2. Even if she was in worse health than Kirk, it is a scientific fact that mortality rates are much higher for men than woman at any given age. Not only that, but women are "delayers" and can go on in poor shape for years, whilst men tend to drop dead instantly even if they were doing just fine the day before. There is a reason why Zsa Zsa Gabor has outlived Ernest Borgnine.

No offense to old Kirk, but I would not want to meet him. His stroke in 1996 has impeded his speech in such a way that I've had a hard time understanding him ever since. Literally, I would need a translator if a meeting was to occur.

Now that she is 98.5, the odds have increased to 29.2%. But at the same time, 70.8% says she will make it to 99. Statistically speaking, at least one actor/actress born in 1916 will become a centenarian. At least if you compare it to previous cohorts in modern times (1903-1914). Ok, 1908 and 1911 were bad years, but almost none of them made it to 98 in the first place. The 1916:ers are numerous enough today that we don't have to worry if 5 of them die. Just as long as Olivia isn't one of them. Kirk Douglas has the disadvantage of being a man.

I told you guys she was ill! http://www.deathlist...=1 That's 3 out of 5 of your predictions gone. Alice Babs and Sid Caeser are also dead . Congrats! Make that 4 out of 5. It turns out that Bess Myerson passed away on December 14, 2014. http://www.nytimes.c...WT.nav=top-news

After two years, it was about time I lost my "startathreadginity" or summat. So, which pun was the best? PS, the poll doesn't show up when I click Preview Post, hope I'm doing it right.

I'm gonna have to go with Mickey Rooney but he's not in the poll.

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What's appearent is that this group of people can be roughly divided into 6 categories, so there's not much diversity. Especially the Top 4 A-League are dominant, as I like to call it. Actors & actresses: Thespians, hams and all inbetween. This is the biggest category. Gabor Havilland Macnee Douglas Molinaro Harper O'Hara Phillips Kercheval Day Cole Sallis Nimoy Reagan Smith Lee Maynard Large Authority figures: These are the leaders of organizations, nations and other stuff that end with -tions. Havelange Cuellar Healey Bush Phillip Woodhead Schmidt Castro Abdulyadej Kohl Dole Kissinger Mubarak Mugabe Authors: Those who create a work of fiction for the enjoyment of others and are gifted with the pen (most are too old for keyboards, I reckon). Wouk Lee Adams Simon (yes, he counts here) Athletes: Running's & excersising good for your health, but it doesn't make you immortal. So for that, these sportsmen make up the last part of the the Top 4 A-League. Crowe Westhuizen Lamotta Roberts TV personalities: They're the ones who were active in television but didn't necessarily "play" any fictive roles. They're mostly presenters, commentators and hosts. James O'Sullevan Norden Michelmore PS. I know that they're numerous enough to be in the above mentioned top 4 A-league, but that would ruin the whole thing so... Musicians: An underused category IMO. King Lynn Berry Miscellaneous: A religious figure, a mathematician and a billionaire all in one category. Graham Nash Kevorkian Conclusion: We need more celebrities from different fields of career.

Fucking hell, this is like the millionth time you've ranted on ad nauseam about Peter Sutcliffe. Build a bridge and GET OVER IT. Geez....

I thought he was the good guy. You must've confused him with that other Pakistani politician Nawas Sharif.

1. Leonard Nimoy: The team joker. Although his COPD probably makes him in no mood to joke. 2. Maureen O’Hara: Wheelchaired, has diabetes and is quite old now. 3. Reginald VelJohnson: I think he’s the next James Avery. 4. Ethel Lang: In case no one else dies, I need a guarantee that I won’t end up with zero points. A supercentenarian is often reliable in this aspect. 5. Charles Zentai: Formerly on Simon Wiesenthal Center’s list. Claimed to have a heart disease and peripheral neuropathy last decade, but that might’ve been an attempt to avoid trial in Hungary. 6. Patricia Hitchcock: In bad shape nowadays. Will get an obit because of her famous father. 7. Muhammad Ali: Has Parkinsons and pneumonia. I really wanted at least one athlete in my team. 8. Aretha Franklin: Was ill a while ago, but not sure about now. I see her as Bobby Womack’s direct replacement from last year. 9. Wilford Brimley: Overweight and has diabetes. 10. Charlotte Rae: Is cancer-free now, but pretty much all the other Diffrent Strokes cast members are gone, so there’s definitly something ”cursy” and creepy about that show. 11. Dina Merrill: Wheelchaired, strokes, heart problems, etc. 12. Michael Schumacher: I have a feeling that his recovery will be short-lived. 13. Nancy Barbato: Frank Sinatra’s ex-wife might have Alzheimers. 14. Rudolf von Ribbentrop: Joachim’s son. Mostly because of old age and hopes of a Unique Pick. 15. Jean Ritchie: Had stroke problems 5-6 years ago. 16. C.H. Hermansson: One of the oldest living politicians worldwide. One of my "token Swedes" this year. 17. William Phipps: The voice of Prince Charming in Cinderella has heart problems. And I'm not talking about emotional ones. 18. Earl Cameron: Think of him as a British Sidney Poitier plus ten years. Should get an obit due to his CBE title. 19. Peter Hill-Wood: To avoid putting just 90-plussers on my team, Arsenal’s former chairman gets to join a new team. Had a heart attack some years ago. 20. Magnus Härenstam: Health problems. Another Swede.

There's a high risk that she wouldn't have lived to be a centenarian had she stayed in Germany. Simply because of the people with Swastika armbands on. (FYI, she was Jewish in case you didn't know). Haha, thanks. But they won't hire me when they see that I made the 10 much smaller than the 50.