Joey Russ

It’s an update on missed survivors. The fact that Nicholas Parsons was left off is still super annoying and shameful.

The way I see it, the Democrats currently are very likely to at least gain some senate seats for the next session. In fact, a lot of Republican held seats have potential to flip this in this election. So what seats exactly are competitive this time around? I’ll go around and name the likelihood of a seat flipping from most likely to least likely (at least those who even has a slight potential of flipping. Arizona: Martha McSally has run an abysmal campaign. Last time I checked she’s less popular than Kirsten Sinema, who’s a democrat. And with all that, Mark Kelly himself has run a solid campaign. I’d be surprised if this seat doesn’t flip. Colorado: The state is definitely becoming quite solid towards the Democrats (Hillary won it in 2016), and Cory Gardner is not really liked there. And you have a former governor who was quite popular. So why do I put this seat as less likely than Arizona? Basically what puts it down is that Hickenlooper did have to deal with an ethics investigation this year, which I think hurts him slightly. Still, this seat will mostly be a dem pick up. North Carolina: After Arizona and Colorado, there aren’t any seats that seem like guarantees. However, the next closest seat has to be North Carolina. Thom Tillis is quite wishy washy, and Cal Cunningham is running a solid campaign. Besides that, Tillis only won his seat by about a percentage point in a Republican wave year. That puts Tillis in a certain amount of danger. Could Tillis hold on? I’d say yes, but I do think at this point Cunningham is the favorite Maine: Despite it’s blue lean I don’t think Maine is a guaranteed pick up. You see, Susan Collins was a very popular incumbent before the whole Kavanaugh situation, and she won by massive percentage points in the past. She won’t win by that large of a margin now, but she could very well eke out a victory ala Joe Manchin. Sarah Gideon is not a bad opponent though, which means this race is still competitive, and Gideon certainly could win Iowa: I think Iowa is the most likely tipping point state of the dems win the senate race outright. This race is definitely a toss up. Joni Ernst is not really well liked as an incumbent, and Theresa Greenfield has done a decent job fundraising. Polling shows Greenfield ahead as well. The thing is, most people expect Iowa to vote for Trump in the presidential election, so the is on whether Greenfield would have enough Trump voters to put her on top. It’s certainly plausible. I think it’s too early to really know who’ll win. Montana: This race is interesting. You have Steve Bullock who is still a quite popular governor running up against Steve Daines who, unlike many of the other senate candidates mentioned, is still quite popular. But Montana was also one of the few states to re elect a red state democrat, so it’s certainly plausible that Montana gets picked up. However, I do think the advantage goes to Daines at this point. After Montana, there’s a steep drop off in chances of picking up seats from other Republicans. However, if there were seats that the dems could pick up, it’d go like this South Carolina: If you told me that South Carolina would be competitive last year, I would be laughing my ass off. However, there’s some polling that indicates the race is much tighter than it should be. Jamie Harrison is also running a good campaign, and good candidates does help your chances of winning that seat. Still, I expect Lindsey Graham will win the seat, but it definitely could be closer than expected. Georgia (regular): Tbh, I’m not really confident that this senate race is as competitive as people say, but the margins will probably be decently close. I don’t think Georgia’s quite there into being a true swing state, but hey, I’ve been surprised before. Kansas: It’s really shocking that Kansas is being seen as potentially competitive. I thought once Kobach lost the primary the chance of this race being competitive would dwindle, but there are still polls that show the race is within a couple percentage points. Given the red lean of Kansas I still expect Roger Marshall to win, but I think there’s a small chance of an upset. Alaska: Alaska is probably the most under the radar of all the races I’m mentioning, but Al Gross is running a pretty solid campaign. Also Dan Sullivan only won by about 2 percentage points last time. I still think the Republican lean will get Sullivan the win, but is the upset potential there. I’d say it’s possible Georgia (special): it’s weird to see a somewhat swing state being below some reliably red states, but that’s how I feel about the special election. Reason is that the top two polled candidates currently is Kelly Loeffler, the incumbent Republican... and Doug Collins, a Republican representative. I’d be surprised if a democrat makes the run off tbh. The one thing that gives them a chance is that Loeffler is a corrupto, which might allow dems to steal second place behind Collins. Texas: This seat should be more competitive, but MJ Hegar is not running a good campaign at all. That and Cornyn is not as unpopular as Cruz. If the Democrats nominated a better candidate, they might’ve had a better chance of picking this seat up (though I still think Cornyn would be the favorite). Definitely a wasted opportunity. Mississippi: Cindy Hyde Smith is running against Mike Espy again, who was within 7 points of beating. It’s not impossible to think that Espy could improve on his margin, but even if he improves his margin Hyde Smith has about a 99% chance of winning. Kentucky: Last, and certainly least, there’s Kentucky. Oh boy. Where to even begin with this one. Amy McGrath is such an abysmal candidate. In fact I think the only reason the dems wanted her is that she’s a good fundraiser. Plus, of all the states I’ve mentioned Kentucky is easily the most Republican leaning of them all. In fact, Charles Booker was a much better candidate than McGrath and would make that race much more competitive... and he would be struggling to defeat Mitch McConnell. Just because someone is super unpopular doesn’t mean they’ll get taken down is a solidly red state. Don’t donate your money to this race. You have a much better pick up opportunity in any of the races I mentioned above then you ever would in Kentucky. Last thing I want to mention is that the Republicans don’t have a lot of pickup opportunities. They will certainly get Alabama. But there’s definitely a second potential seat the Republicans could pick up: in Michigan. Michigan will most likely go to the Democrats this time, and the incumbent dem Gary Peters will most likely win. Keep in mind, however, that Peters opponent John James got within 7 points of Debbie Stabenow, who was more popular than Peters. And there also was some polling that showed Peters leading less comfortably than he should be. So while I think it’s likely that Gary Peters win in Michigan, definitely don’t count out the possibility of John James pulling the upset and taking the seat from Peters.

Potential Gris Gris candidate Rossana Rossanda is dead at 96

Yep

Would be a perfect replacement for Daniel Arap Moi tbh

There was a reason Chris Doleman was joker choice I thought was the best for a while. He looked frail throughout the year and was basically at the two year mark by the end of the year. Even though I did end up picking Tom Smith, I always thought there was a chance he could sneak into 2021. That was before I knew about him slurring his words mind you, but I think a first year cancer name is too risky to joker unless it’s something like they are entering hospice. My biggest regret is probably picking Gianluca Vialli tbh. Unlike most of the other names I ended up picking, he didn’t seem like the best choice out there, but I ended up going with him defensively. Lee Kerslake, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Terry DeCarlo were all considered during the last week, but I cut them for various reasons. I would be in a much better position if I picked one of them, but c’est la vie (Sultan Qaboos was another last week cut, though if he ended up on my team it would’ve been over John Lewis).

The cancer is actually glioblastoma (mentions it at about 5:10 in this video). Although he is still active with his job:

Had something similar happen when I scored with Alauddin Ali (I believe it was an illness of the month bonus points or so), so we’re actually right on level where it would be if those bonus points didn’t apply.

Did you give msc Smullen joker points by mistake? Because I believe I’d be ahead of him due to the joker points if my math is correct, unless I’m missing something.

Reuters UK for the DDP and other pools

Grim Reaper really decided that this is the weekend to cause a lot of chaos, didn’t he?

Last year’s winning score was 194. With Kerslake’s death I’m at 198, so regardless of whether Cisovsky stays the youngest hit or not at least one person will be above last year’s winning score. And looking at my living 25 on my team, I think that Kerslake probably isn’t going to be my last hit this year. One thing for certain, regardless of where I place in the end this was definitely my best Alt Obits team to date...

We both have Dai Davies, so his death is irrelevant in the grand schemes of things. So it’s basically Ged Stokes and Pat Martino on my end vs Betty Dobson and David Gulpilil for Reptile. Honestly wouldn’t be shocked either way...

I think Lee Kerslake might not get a QO today considering that another death is massively overshadowing Kerslake’s. Though I’d be stunned if he doesn’t get a write up at all in the next few months or so (especially since Banali is less famous/influential than Kerslake).

You’re not supposed to say stuff like this man. You’re going to have him killed now...

200,000 officially dead in the US, but it might not even be the central focus at this point.

I also had Lee Kerslake on me. Unsurprisingly, no bonus points. I do believe with his death however I surpass the winning score of 2019...

I would like to say that not only was senator Jim Bunning dead wrong on his prognosis of RBG, but she also ended up outliving him by about 3 years or so.

Though that new thread is unnecessary, I do like the idea of discussing whether the record will be broken or not. We are now ahead of 2017 by about 10 days, who’s 15th hit is about a month ahead 3 years ago. However, I’m not 100% sure that it’ll be breaking the record. I’d call it a coin flip at this point. The thing about 2017 is that when the 14th hit came around, there was still many obvious dead certs still alive at that point (thinking about Downie and King Michael in particular). This year? Probably the closest to a dead cert is Leon Spinks at this point, and he’s not a guaranteed death either. Trebek’s treatment is working right now, while Tom Smith has his tumors shrunken. I think at this point those two will more likely see the year out than not (though a sudden downturn for either would not shock). Outside of that, there’s certainly potential for some of the rest (like Delors losing his wife, or Joanne Woodward feeling such a has to be this year name), but none of them are guarantees. In fact, a big reason why we’re at 14 hits today is because the old’s people lottery has been successful on this years list. I’d actually consider 10 of the 14 hits part of that old people’s lottery (even folk like Stirling Moss is part of that cause he could’ve died at any point). The four who weren’t old people’s lottery names? RBG, who people could deduce that she couldn’t really fight off her pancreatic cancer last year; Terry Jones, who while he had dementia there were some end of the year warning signs that he was likely on his way out; Genesis P-Orridge, who was really ill with leukemia; and Daniel Arap Moi, who, unlike the others over 90, had a ton of life threatening ailments at the end of last year that made him a sooner rather than later name. I’m not saying the record is impossible, it is an enema year after all, but I just wouldn’t be surprised either way with what happens.

Spinks has been awfully quiet...

Shocking news. Republicans flip flopping on their own rules? Can't believe it:

September 30th

Here’s the BBC