Joey Russ

Mail QO

If/when a QO comes Tommy Devito would be the 7th covid hit in the DDP.

RIP Tommy:

I think all the states that has potential to flip are states that are considered swingy last election, minus Colorado, Maine, New Mexico, and Virginia (pretty solid for dems at this point). Swing states being Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine's 2nd district, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska's 2nd district, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. I'd be completely stunned if any of the other states flip. If there were states that did have potential to flip out of the blue (just as hypothetical, I'm not predicting this will happen), for dem flips it would probably be Alaska and South Carolina as both were within 15% points last time. On the other hand, apart from the 4 states I removed from being competitive that were competitive last time, the republicans next best option would probably be Oregon. Again though, I'd be amazed if any of those states flipped. Ohio was never solid blue, at least on the presidential level. And unfortunately Ohio is slowly slipping away from the dems. I do think it's possible for the democrats to win this time, but come 2024 or 2028 that might not be the case anymore. And Republicans are definitely the favorite to win Ohio. You could probably compare Ohio to Delaware and Missouri (in the past those two were considered bellwhether states, but eventually slipped into the democratic and republican leans they have today). State level can be quite important. If you control the state house, senate and the governorship, more stuff is able to pass on a state level. On the other hand, a more divided house means gridlock is likely. I would definitely take the state races seriously like the federal elections. And as for Alabama, do I think it's possible for Doug Jones to win? Sure, I wouldn't completely write it off. But the chances of him winning are really marginal and him winning would be such an underdog story. Thing is, Alabama is on the back end of Republican leaning states (that is Alabama votes for Republicans by a larger margin than states typically characterized as ruby red like Kansas or Mississippi), and with how partisan the country has become, Jones would really have to outrun Trump's margin by a huge amount if he wants any chance of winning. And Jones only made the senate cause he was up against a fucking pedophile. And he won by only a point. I think Jones winning Alabama is probably more likely than the dems beating Mitch in Kentucky, but that isn't really saying much at all. Tuberville is the massive favorite to win that senate race and there's no way to go around that.

Am afraid that this falls into the Deathlist Forums school of wrong predictions. Includes the great predictions of Death Impends on Abe Vigoda, Life Is Beautiful on Fats Domino, pretty much every prediction iain made, etc...

Just checked my list again. Seems like I got 6 hits so far... in about a week. Already past that 2% mark...

Apparently Gord Downie is getting one last posthumous album

Robert Graetz is one for the list of the missed. Last picked in 2019

Paul McCarthy is dead. Yep, you heard that right. Blogger Paul McCarthy has indeed died

It’s an update on missed survivors. The fact that Nicholas Parsons was left off is still super annoying and shameful.

The way I see it, the Democrats currently are very likely to at least gain some senate seats for the next session. In fact, a lot of Republican held seats have potential to flip this in this election. So what seats exactly are competitive this time around? I’ll go around and name the likelihood of a seat flipping from most likely to least likely (at least those who even has a slight potential of flipping. Arizona: Martha McSally has run an abysmal campaign. Last time I checked she’s less popular than Kirsten Sinema, who’s a democrat. And with all that, Mark Kelly himself has run a solid campaign. I’d be surprised if this seat doesn’t flip. Colorado: The state is definitely becoming quite solid towards the Democrats (Hillary won it in 2016), and Cory Gardner is not really liked there. And you have a former governor who was quite popular. So why do I put this seat as less likely than Arizona? Basically what puts it down is that Hickenlooper did have to deal with an ethics investigation this year, which I think hurts him slightly. Still, this seat will mostly be a dem pick up. North Carolina: After Arizona and Colorado, there aren’t any seats that seem like guarantees. However, the next closest seat has to be North Carolina. Thom Tillis is quite wishy washy, and Cal Cunningham is running a solid campaign. Besides that, Tillis only won his seat by about a percentage point in a Republican wave year. That puts Tillis in a certain amount of danger. Could Tillis hold on? I’d say yes, but I do think at this point Cunningham is the favorite Maine: Despite it’s blue lean I don’t think Maine is a guaranteed pick up. You see, Susan Collins was a very popular incumbent before the whole Kavanaugh situation, and she won by massive percentage points in the past. She won’t win by that large of a margin now, but she could very well eke out a victory ala Joe Manchin. Sarah Gideon is not a bad opponent though, which means this race is still competitive, and Gideon certainly could win Iowa: I think Iowa is the most likely tipping point state of the dems win the senate race outright. This race is definitely a toss up. Joni Ernst is not really well liked as an incumbent, and Theresa Greenfield has done a decent job fundraising. Polling shows Greenfield ahead as well. The thing is, most people expect Iowa to vote for Trump in the presidential election, so the is on whether Greenfield would have enough Trump voters to put her on top. It’s certainly plausible. I think it’s too early to really know who’ll win. Montana: This race is interesting. You have Steve Bullock who is still a quite popular governor running up against Steve Daines who, unlike many of the other senate candidates mentioned, is still quite popular. But Montana was also one of the few states to re elect a red state democrat, so it’s certainly plausible that Montana gets picked up. However, I do think the advantage goes to Daines at this point. After Montana, there’s a steep drop off in chances of picking up seats from other Republicans. However, if there were seats that the dems could pick up, it’d go like this South Carolina: If you told me that South Carolina would be competitive last year, I would be laughing my ass off. However, there’s some polling that indicates the race is much tighter than it should be. Jamie Harrison is also running a good campaign, and good candidates does help your chances of winning that seat. Still, I expect Lindsey Graham will win the seat, but it definitely could be closer than expected. Georgia (regular): Tbh, I’m not really confident that this senate race is as competitive as people say, but the margins will probably be decently close. I don’t think Georgia’s quite there into being a true swing state, but hey, I’ve been surprised before. Kansas: It’s really shocking that Kansas is being seen as potentially competitive. I thought once Kobach lost the primary the chance of this race being competitive would dwindle, but there are still polls that show the race is within a couple percentage points. Given the red lean of Kansas I still expect Roger Marshall to win, but I think there’s a small chance of an upset. Alaska: Alaska is probably the most under the radar of all the races I’m mentioning, but Al Gross is running a pretty solid campaign. Also Dan Sullivan only won by about 2 percentage points last time. I still think the Republican lean will get Sullivan the win, but is the upset potential there. I’d say it’s possible Georgia (special): it’s weird to see a somewhat swing state being below some reliably red states, but that’s how I feel about the special election. Reason is that the top two polled candidates currently is Kelly Loeffler, the incumbent Republican... and Doug Collins, a Republican representative. I’d be surprised if a democrat makes the run off tbh. The one thing that gives them a chance is that Loeffler is a corrupto, which might allow dems to steal second place behind Collins. Texas: This seat should be more competitive, but MJ Hegar is not running a good campaign at all. That and Cornyn is not as unpopular as Cruz. If the Democrats nominated a better candidate, they might’ve had a better chance of picking this seat up (though I still think Cornyn would be the favorite). Definitely a wasted opportunity. Mississippi: Cindy Hyde Smith is running against Mike Espy again, who was within 7 points of beating. It’s not impossible to think that Espy could improve on his margin, but even if he improves his margin Hyde Smith has about a 99% chance of winning. Kentucky: Last, and certainly least, there’s Kentucky. Oh boy. Where to even begin with this one. Amy McGrath is such an abysmal candidate. In fact I think the only reason the dems wanted her is that she’s a good fundraiser. Plus, of all the states I’ve mentioned Kentucky is easily the most Republican leaning of them all. In fact, Charles Booker was a much better candidate than McGrath and would make that race much more competitive... and he would be struggling to defeat Mitch McConnell. Just because someone is super unpopular doesn’t mean they’ll get taken down is a solidly red state. Don’t donate your money to this race. You have a much better pick up opportunity in any of the races I mentioned above then you ever would in Kentucky. Last thing I want to mention is that the Republicans don’t have a lot of pickup opportunities. They will certainly get Alabama. But there’s definitely a second potential seat the Republicans could pick up: in Michigan. Michigan will most likely go to the Democrats this time, and the incumbent dem Gary Peters will most likely win. Keep in mind, however, that Peters opponent John James got within 7 points of Debbie Stabenow, who was more popular than Peters. And there also was some polling that showed Peters leading less comfortably than he should be. So while I think it’s likely that Gary Peters win in Michigan, definitely don’t count out the possibility of John James pulling the upset and taking the seat from Peters.

Potential Gris Gris candidate Rossana Rossanda is dead at 96

Yep

Would be a perfect replacement for Daniel Arap Moi tbh

There was a reason Chris Doleman was joker choice I thought was the best for a while. He looked frail throughout the year and was basically at the two year mark by the end of the year. Even though I did end up picking Tom Smith, I always thought there was a chance he could sneak into 2021. That was before I knew about him slurring his words mind you, but I think a first year cancer name is too risky to joker unless it’s something like they are entering hospice. My biggest regret is probably picking Gianluca Vialli tbh. Unlike most of the other names I ended up picking, he didn’t seem like the best choice out there, but I ended up going with him defensively. Lee Kerslake, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Terry DeCarlo were all considered during the last week, but I cut them for various reasons. I would be in a much better position if I picked one of them, but c’est la vie (Sultan Qaboos was another last week cut, though if he ended up on my team it would’ve been over John Lewis).