paddyfool

Dr Li Wenliang, a whistleblower who helped to initially raise the alarm about this outbreak back in December, has died from his own coronavirus infection at the young age of 34. And since quite a lot of people in this forum are Brits, it's worth noting the UK has now confirmed its third case, in Brighton, contracted not in China but "in another Asian country". (Which I'd guess would probably be either Thailand, Singapore or Japan, looking at the numbers) EDIT: It does indeed seem he picked it up in Singapore.

All I know is that whoever wins, it probably won't be me. I primarily picked my film for the subject matter (after finding nobody of note still alive from A Matter of Life and Death), and each of the remaining two actors could easily live another decade.

I have little doubt that this will surpass SARS as well. Still, the world will go on turning... especially considering the characteristics of most deaths from this: "From the analysis of death cases, it emerges that it is mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor." https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ The mortality rate among cases in Wuhan seems to be significantly higher than that elsewhere, incidentally, at about 4.9%. Probably because local resources have been overwhelmed there; even with recent rapid hospital construction, there will still be significant issues with staffing etc, especially with healthcare staff among the most exposed to getting sick.

Smith

I expect there'll be funds in the estate to pay for whichever carers are currently looking after her, for the short span of time remaining (she's been looking more frail even than Kirk for a while now).

Since we're now at 6 hits before 6 weeks... I know 50 hits by 52 weeks would be a statistical impossibility, but without wishing to jinx the list, what are the chances of 10 hits by 10 weeks?

28,274 confirmed cases, 565 deaths. At least two punters went too low, it seems. Right now, I'd bet the 500-999 crowd did as well.

Perfect :-)

Indeed, all hail King Drol! His ascension to the throne brings stability and certainty after that brief time of doubt... for a while, anyway.

Casual ruling: currently msc and drol are jockeying for power, in a contest between a former king and a would-be [will-be] pretender. Both might be supplantable for the moment, if any new players wanted to make the unlikely guesstimate of 2.

The third hits only give one extra point, unless the third hit is a joker, since you're going from 0 to +1, rather than -1 to +1. So often a total of 3 points on a third hit (from -1 to +2), or something similar.

24,516 confirmed cases worldwide, 493 confirmed deaths. Further breakdown at this handy link (I'm getting lazy now): https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm really sorry about the scoring headache. I can send my spreadsheet across from the first round, although I expect that might also baffle.

Scores are a little off again. Should be a +4 change for the non-joker moi entries (going from -2 to +2) and +8 for the joker moi entries (going from -4 to +4). I should probably have tweaked the joker rule, but it is what it is.

May I congratulate the participants of this pool on scoring 5 hits within the first 5 weeks of the year?

True that. Any amount of deaths under a million is fuck all when put up against a population growth rate of 80 million per year worldwide. Depending on how localised they are, of course - if a million deaths happened in Wales, for instance, that'd be a third of the Welsh population. Scattered around the world, it'd be just 1 in every 7,700 people, meaning that most of us wouldn't know anyone who died. The biggest deal of coronavirus to many people will be how it fucks with supply chains, travel, personal interaction, access to healthcare etc as the virus and quarantine procedures go global. Meanwhile, here are the current figures: 20,438 confirmed cases in mainland China so far, up by 3,235 (19%) 425 confirmed deaths in China so far, up by 62 (17%). 185 confirmed cases outside mainland China Hong Kong reports its first death, the 2nd outside of mainland China. Incidentally, Japan has just quarantined a whole cruise ship with 2500 passengers and 1000 crew, after one passenger tested positive for the coronavirus. Plague ships for our times...

I'm a little surprised that Moi wasn't on this list.

17,459 confirmed cases, 362 deaths (passing SARS' total). https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-evacuations-flights-latest-news-death-toll-climbs-passing-sars

Incidentally, I reckon it'll be just 3 or 4 days before we pass the 500 deaths mark. Then maybe a week or two before we pass the 1000 mark. Anyone reconsidering their earlier guess, either upwards or downwards?

You know, you could try posting something constructive, informative or interesting sometime rather than just critiquing other posters on the style of their posts. Still, how do other people here feel? Would you rather see absolute increase figures, percentage increase, both or neither?

14,380 cases in China now (up 22%). 304 deaths in China (up 18%). The first death outside of China has now been reported - a 44 year old man from Wuhan travelling in the Phillipines.

China's confirmed cases now total 11,791 (up 53%), deaths 258 (up 21%). The first human to human transmission outside China has now been reported in Thailand. The USA has now blocked new arrivals from China.

Yang Hyong-sop

A bold claim, but as we likely won't be around to see the year 2150, not a testable one. Also, have you noticed that life expectancy increases have slowed significantly or, in some cases, reversed in rich countries recently?

The death toll stands at 213 inside China (up 25% from yesterday), with 9,096 confirmed infections (up 18%). The quarantine has also taken its toll - for instance a 17 year old with cerebral palsy has died after the rest of their family were quarantined https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/30/disabled-teenager-in-china-dies-at-home-alone-after-relatives-quarantined Case total in the rest of the world 129 across 22 countries, no deaths as yet.