paddyfool

It would seem she's planning a couple of live "interview-style" events in September. https://thebrag.com/olivia-newton-john-live-conversations-ray-martin/amp/ From which you might surmise that she's doing ok.

I might be up for this one as well.

Looking at McCain and Bracknell alone, the odds have to be pretty good that that score will be at least 5/10 by the end of the year. EDIT: Sir Creep, I wouldn't advise getting too comfortable in last place. I fully expect my team to reclaim it before too long.

Can I just point out how well you've done as a collective so far, despite my muddying the water? 7 deaths and just over 7 months in, and 24 out of 25 of the list above are still alive and kicking.

You'd probably have the odd quiet month in which nobody dies out of the 60 names, and nobody scores. Perhaps make this a game of four quarters instead? Eg september -> november, december -> february, etc. You could even have it that way with zero repetition of team members between quarters of the year, to encourage tactically selecting a few moderate risk people for the team in earlier quarters. With three elimination rounds and then lowest score in final quarter to win it?

No, it really wouldn't. Immunotherapy has been very much part of the medical toolset since at least 2010, when Ipilimumab was licensed. Whereas a lot of alternative medicine claims to act via stimulating the immune system, eg homeopathy, but plainly does diddly squat.

Re Brexit: any drop in population this year would consist primarily of people of working age going abroad / not coming. I doubt that would significantly affect mortality in 2018 as deaths are very rare in this group. Also, I doubt that overall population will have dropped this year, since it was growing by 0.8% in the last recorded year https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/july2017#the-uk-population-is-at-its-largest-ever Re crime: probably I should have left that one out. The total rise in homicides (45 nationwide in the last recorded year https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/homicideinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2017#what-do-trends-in-homicide-look-like) is small potatoes compared to national mortality in the hundreds of thousands.

Further to the above, I'll make a casual prediction: 2018 will go higher than 2017, with at least 535,000 deaths and probably over 540,000. I say this not because of some nefarious plot, but because of a number of factors: - Continuation of existing demographic trends as regards an ageing and growing population - Life expectancy in the UK having slowed in its previously long-established rise quite significantly from about 2010 onwards. - Unusually high numbers of flu cases in Jan to March 2018 with a late flu season - Excess heatwave deaths in the current long heatwave - Worsening bed crisis in the NHS (thank you gvt) - Worsening staffing crisis in the NHS (thank you Brexit) - Worsening rates of mental illnesses, obesity, and obesity-related conditions like type 2 diabetes - Worsening violent crime rates (thank you gvt for cutting police numbers and social service spending) - Worsening social inequality - No very major medical advances recently - The slow march of antibiotic resistance Anyone disagree?

Thanks for the summary, Drol - a frail-looking list for sure!

2017 saw the highest number of deaths in England and Wales in the past 14 years with 533,253 deaths registered, even though the age-standardised mortality rate continued to fall. Primarily the rise in deaths was attributable to changes in population age and size. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregistrationsummarytables/2017 I'd anticipate this total is only going to go on increasing. The peak in births in 1947 ( https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/trendsinbirthsanddeathsoverthelastcentury/2015-07-15) was, of course, seventy years ago, and mortality rates rise sharply once people get past the age of three score years and ten.

Regarding whether we should have a "none of the above" option, I'd suggest leaving it until at least September. Dry spells of more than 4 months seem to be very rare in the DL's history, especially during the northern hemisphere's winter.

Bit harsh, that. Especially considering that 3 million more Americans voted for Hillary, and many who did vote for Trump had basically been convinced that although Trump was certainly corrupt, dishonest, dishonourable etc, Hilary was somehow even worse.

Trump proposes Fair and Reciprocal Tariff act, suggesting that the US exit WTO rules. Some people are raising a stink about it, some say it's a load of hot air, but most are just making jokes about the acronym.

Close, indeed, partly because it's been a slow first six months this year. Any of the top 20 or so teams could still take the lead if they miss just one big landmine. Still a proper achievement to have kept a clean slate, though!

You're getting pretty angry about this. Also, most people, even very old people, survive pneumonia hospitalisations if they have reasonably good medical care. Unless it's related to some underlying disease process, e.g. aspiration pneumonia because his ability to swallow's going, the chances are he'll see the outside of hospital again.

Indeed, I'm a tad surprised that we've seen 6 months without a death from this list. Fairly confident they won't all make it another 6 months though...

Congratulations all 35 other punters! You're now officially better than random (as it should be).

Most royal weddings, and 58% of all UK weddings, don't end in divorce, so "never" seems like the more likely bet, especially in comparison to any particular year. By no means a certainty, mind you.

Holy smokes batman! Our fearsomely foresightful foursome are still free of points five fatalities in. Phenominal!

'Evil Empire'? Seriously? You're talking about a longstanding peaceful coalition of democracies in those terms? I just don't get where you're coming from.

Jumping on the HW bandwagon.

Incidentally, this merging in of a thread musing about population trends in life expectancy with a thread on how to live a long life as an individual seems a tad odd to me.

That does fit with some of the trends - the recent drop in US life expectancy seems to have been confined to the black and white populations and left the hispanic population, who already had a higher life expectancy (on a par with western Europe) untouched: "Between 2014 and 2015, life expectancy at birth was stable at 82.0 years for Hispanic persons, decreased 0.2 years to 78.7 years for non-Hispanic white persons, and decreased 0.2 years to 75.1 years for non-Hispanic black persons"

Just a thread to look at life expectancy figures. Worldwide, life expectancy, which is basically the median expected span of years from birth to death based on current age-specific death rates, is increasing year on year (with the current global population average at 70.5 between 2010 and 2015, according to the UN). Individual countries range from a life expectancy of 83.7 (and rising) in Japan to 50.1 in Sierra Leone. As an aside, it's worth noting that the median is nor the same as the mode, since of course the distribution is skewed; for instance, in Western European countries like the UK, although life expectancy is in the early 80s, the most likely age that an average individual might expect to die based on current stats is in their late 80s. Country averages only tell you so much, as well; for instance, in the USA, if you break it down by state, life expectancy ranges from 75.0 in Mississippi (similar to Malaysia, Romania or Brazil) to 81.3 in Hawaii (similar to the UK or Ireland). And if you break it down still further, ie by county, life expectancy in the USA ranges from 66 (well below the international population average) to 87 (well above Japan); and generally the lowest performing counties have not been rising in life expectancy along with the rest of the country over the last couple of decades. What gets a little disconcerting, meanwhile, is that life expectancy may now be peaking in both the USA (which has recently had two successive years of small drops in life expectancy, with a rise in drug overdose deaths, homicides, suicides, and road traffic deaths, while other causes of death remained largely static) and the EU (which has recently had a one year drop in life expectancy, although I'm not aware of the breakdown by cause). Since life expectancy measures only the risk of dying before very old age (it doesn't matter a jot to such calculations in any country on earth whether you die at 85 or 115), it is particularly weighted in favour of measuring the deaths of the young, and thus works to some extent as a quality of life indicator. The homeless, the unemployed, and people with severe mental illnesses certainly have much lower life expectancies than the average, for instance. Is it fair to ask, then, whether things are getting worse? (In the west at least, and for everyone but deathlisters, obituary writers and undertakers, that is, since the combination of this peak with our aging population may presage a bumper crop for the reaper ahead).

Incidentally, London's murder rate, and recent changes in it, is nothing exceptional compared to the UK overall: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/05/how-does-londons-spate-of-killings-compare-with-other-cities The last available homicide rate in London of 12.2 per million is well below the highest in England and Wales, which is seen in Greater Manchester with 19.1 homicides per million people. Which in turn is much less than, say, the USA average of 49 per million people, or the global average of 62 per million people. EDIT: And even if we were to go just on the basis of the recent spike in the last three months, 50 homicides from a population of 10 million in 3 months equates to 20 per million in a year. High for the UK, but not massive globally.