Skinny kiltrunner

Just checked the DSCDP site, and I see we are now 2nd overall in pools. It looks like it was Grobler singlehandedly responsible for the jump from 4th, with Phil Phillips. Site wide solo and the Machine Gun Kelly bonus for a massive 106 points. Well done. Next stop, first place.

Sorry Lady Fiona. I have to do it.....

So she's been following Boris around too, then?

Guy Lafleur sounds like he is doing alright, getting better after surgery for lung cancer.

Actually, I think many of us do. Although yes, there is news to tell us this, I think there is great value in sharing this info on the site, both for the readers to know there are others of 'us' experiencing the same uncertainty and anxiety, and for the writers to be able to express themselves. We're not all here because we want everyone to die.

So when rigor sets in, will they say he is erect?

Say what you want, but damn, I learn more here than alot of places.

OK, I'll bite. What is a GBF#2?

I should add, the area or country you live in probably has a number to call, and they will screen you first that way. Depending on where you are, they may come to you to do the test if they warrant it isneeded, or give you a specific appointment of where and when to go. The Powers That Be probably don't want anyone just showing up randomly unless they are in a very bad way.

Canada takes the initiative and says they will not send a team to Tokyo for the Olympic Games this year. Best move Trudeau has made since taking office, finally starting to lead. I would expect other countries to follow suit quickly and the Games will be officially postponed before the week is up.

The other symptoms to watch for are tiredness and fever. Potentially difficulty breathing, but I guess that comes a bit later. If you just have the cough, maybe sit tight with a nice tea. The last place you want to be if you don't actually have it is a hospital or clinic, because you just might after you have been there. If you have the fever and tiredness, though, best get tested.

It seems that the fatality rate of 3-3.4% may be drastically underestimated. It could be as high as 13%. The following excerpt from Worldometer illustrates this: (math warning- you might want to warm up your brain first do you don't sprain something!). And remember, the typical "flu" has a death rate of around 0.1%. The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease. Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases. But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8] (Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology). In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined. The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be: CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T} (where T = average time period from case confirmation to death) This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients. One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak). Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide. If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get: 813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula). With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator: Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7). T could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. This method of estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will yield the same result. An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula: CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered) which, with the latest data available, would be equal to: 14,611 / (14,611 + 97,636) = 13% CFR (worldwide) If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get: 11,350 / (11,350 + 25,196) = 31.1% CFR (outside of mainland China) The sample size above is limited, and the data could be inaccurate (for example, the number of recoveries in countries outside of China could be lagging in our collection of data from numerous sources, whereas the number of cases and deaths is more readily available and therefore generally more up to par). There was a discrepancy in mortality rates (with a much higher mortality rate in China) which however is not being confirmed as the sample of cases outside of China is growing in size. On the contrary, it is now higher outside of China than within. That initial discrepancy was generally explained with a higher case detection rate outside of China especially with respect to Wuhan, where priority had to be initially placed on severe and critical cases, given the ongoing emergency. Unreported cases would have the effect of decreasing the denominator and inflating the CFR above its real value. For example, assuming 10,000 total unreported cases in Wuhan and adding them back to the formula, we would get a CFR of 12.0% (quite different from the CFR of 13% based strictly on confirmed cases). Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College in the UK, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there were only 2,000 confirmed cases at the time. [11] Without going that far, the possibility of a non negligible number of unreported cases in the initial stages of the crisis should be taken into account when trying to calculate the case fatally rate. As the days go by and the city organized its efforts and built the infrastructure, the ability to detect and confirm cases improved. As of February 3, for example, the novel coronavirus nucleic acid testing capability of Wuhan had increased to 4,196 samples per day from an initial 200 samples.[10] A significant discrepancy in case mortality rate can also be observed when comparing mortality rates as calculated and reported by China NHC: a CFR of 3.1% in the Hubei province (where Wuhan, with the vast majority of deaths is situated), and a CFR of 0.16% in other provinces (19 times less). Finally, we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of 4% (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%.

As little kids in the neighborhood, we used to roll down the hill into the ravine and call it the Time Tunnel. It was in reference to the intro to the show. Closest I ever really got to taking mind altering substances until I was old enough to drink.

I guess we'll just disregard the idea that Burma, aka Myanmar, is in Asia. Sorry, feeling pedantic today.

I agree with Reptile, SC. If you make a point of listening to multiple genres of music, you've likely heard him without maybe realizing it. He's got some terrific stuff.

According to the actuaries, you have a 1in 2700 chance of dying by falling down stairs. Slightly better odds than dying by drowning.

Think I'll take my chances with the virus, then, thank you very much.

Multiple hits for Genesis P, including everyone in the top 8 of Fossorius Endeavour. Very nice, and we sit at position 4 on the list of all pools. Looks like we saw that one coming or something.

Depends. What did 'someone' use them for?

Not even close. HIV is much more socially acceptable.

No need to worry about crowds there. Who's house is it at this year?

Aslan Bzhania apparently recovered and back on the campaign trail. Silly assasins- you can't poison someone named Aslan.