How likely will they be 2024 DL hits?
Jimmy Carter: 100%, 99 years old, in hospice for over 10 months, lost his wife of 77 years a month ago, will be dead by March and won’t see his 100th birthday, let alone 2025.
Dick Van Dyke: 25%, in fine kettle of late, ageist pick, maybe influenced by his old history of chain smoking, alcoholism and clinical depression.
Pete Murray: 35%, he should make 2025, fit and active as of 2022, and I can see him going at 99 like Bob Barker.
Alan Greenspan: 30%, quiet recently but another ageist pick, always chosen but never goes. If Kissinger made 100, why can’t the healthier Greenspan. Exactly, a centenarian in the making like Van Dyke.
Pope Francis: 75%, still well enough to be Pope, but 2023 was a year of health problems for him, so 2024 is expected to be even worse. Pretty much a 2024 or 2025 cert, won't see 90.
Ethel Kennedy: 95%, looked frail in 2022, very little heard about her in 2023. Approaching 96 fast, wise to keep this one on, will pay off this year for sure.
Cleo Laine: 90%, going on 97 years of age and has always looked a life of excess. Plus, never heard from nowadays, and I even dreamt her death last month. 2024 is likely her year, and is likely to be one of the first hits this year.
Sandy Gall: 65%, has stayed active into his senior years, but he is a 96 year old male, and not as healthy as Attenborough or Van Dyke I would guess. Gall is also one of the tallest on the list (187cm at his peak).
Noam Chomsky: 90%, reportedly seriously ill and has taken a sudden step back from all interview activity without any explanation. 2025 is a near impossible task for this one.
Robert Wagner: 20%, continuously mentions he feels great in videos, and looks like one of the healthiest 93-year-old men out there, whilst carrying a great head of hair. Also being highly active doing interviews in recent years lowers his chances of being a 2024 DL hit further. Honestly, one of the worst 2024 DL picks.
Mel Brooks: 55%, hasn’t been a good DL pick until now. No known health issues, but started looking frail in 2023.
Dennis Skinner: 85%, reportedly at the end stages of dementia, has supposedly beaten 91 years of age (a touch age to get out of), and is never heard from anymore. One of the better 2024 DL candidates.
Nigel Starmer-Smith: 85%, reportedly bedridden and dying since 2021, a wonder he even made 2023.
James Whale: 80%, still dying of terminal cancer, his treatment nearing its end, and he doesn’t expect to see another year (again!). This one is also clutching at straws, good-great pick. A 2024 or 2025 dead cert.
Glynis Johns: 95%, oldest and only centenarian on the list, supposedly bed ridden under around the clock care, pretty safe to say 2024 is Glynis' year.
Stanley Baxter: 90%, 2024 feels just like his year, and he will likely go at 98 like Leslie Phillips.
Joanne Woodward: 90%, dementia for 16 years, widower for 15 years, 93-years-old. How did she make it out of 2023 alive? A far better selection than her Kiss Before Dying and Winning co-star Robert Wagner.
Patricia Routledge: 45%, in her declining years no doubt, but looked rather chipper and full of life throughout her various 2023 appearances. One to revisit in 2025.
Clint Eastwood: 20%, directed a film a month ago, and was reportedly in fine form. Age sounds good, and time for a DL debut, but nothing else to really justify what is a bit of a lazy selection.
Derek Draper: 100%, got my vote for 1st Death of 2024. Is in critical condition, may only have a few days left.
Vanessa Redgrave: 100%, 2024 is her year, she seemed gravely ill in a farewell video a few months ago. Seems certain she will go at 87.
Desmond Morris: 20%, has looked great in photos from last year, could have done with a DL break in 2024. Tired of this really ageist pick, he is old and a bit stout, that’s it.
Gene Hackman: 30%, very independent, slim if a bit frail, and was able to drive alone in 2023 without glasses! Another Eastwood situation, about time for his DL induction but should be readily available the 2025 DL at this rate.
Jean-Marie Le Pen: 85%, stroke in 2022, heart attack in 2023, 95 years old and morbidly obese, 2024 will no doubt be a very tough one for Le Pen to manoeuvre out of, really doubt he’ll manage it.
Denis Law: 80%, 3-year dementia sufferer, Bobby Charlton died after 3 years. Not a bad pick at all.
Hans Blix: 30%, no reason why he won't do a Jacques Delors on us in 2026, couldn't find a single health issue with this guy.
Julie Walters: 45%, could really go either way. If she did complete filming for the new Paddington film at the end of 2023, maybe our suspicions about her current condition are a bit exaggerated.
Tom Brokaw: 70%, this was one smart pick by the committee this year. Even though younger than most of his fellow candidates, his run-in with blood cancer is definitely no small matter.
Linda Nolan: 65%, her tumours are shrinking and she is now seemingly toying with us... but with these kind of picks, anything could happen suddenly without notice.
Bob Newhart: 90%, increasingly frail in recent years, on his last legs, highly questionable whether he’ll even make 95. One of the best picks on the 2024 DL, and is expected to be one of the first to depart (remember 94-year-old Burt Bacharach last year?).
Louis Farrakhan: 40%, looked great in recent Twitter videos, but has recently lost his son, and has had a very rocky health history over the years. Not a good nor bad pick.
Norman Tebbit: 40%, potential to squeak into 2025, looked well in a recent photo, and apparently still lives independently, spraying intruder pigeons with a water pistol. Cannot really call this one.
Willie Nelson: 40%, all that performing as impressive as it is for someone at his age, might finish him off, it worked for Charles Aznavour. Plus, if you look at Nelson’s lifestyle history, if someone said he would be alive, let alone performing in his 91st year, they would be laughed at. Yet, seeing 2025 is still somehow a good possibility for Nelson, who is in better health than the majority of his fellow candidates this year.
Daniel Barenboim: 35%, may stick around another year or two, seemingly not deteriorating rapidly and without a life-threatening condition.
Esther Rantzen: 90%, stage 4 lung cancer patient, doesn’t expect to make Christmas, and treatment has failed her. Pretty obvious.
Roberta Flack: 60%, 87 feels like her age of death and her ALS has put her in a very fragile condition, although is not the fastest killing disease. She could very well see 2025, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Dick Cheney: 60%, could go either way, but he has had health woe after health woe, including multiple heart attacks and is now well into his 80s. He was also given roughly 10 years following his heart transplant in 2012. Finally has become a worthy DL pick.
Prunella Scales: 30%, dementia has a very fast deterioration rate once it reaches a certain point, but Scales looked so stunning in 2023, I doubt it will reach that point any time this year.
Robert Duvall: 25%, was out and about in 2023 giving speeches, looking fine for a nonagenarian male. Not in any immediate danger. A better choice than he was last year, is the most promising thing I can say about this pick.
Josef Fritzl: 80%, smart inclusion by the committee. Health plague after health plague seems to come to this one and being imprisoned is no help.
Brigitte Bardot: 45%, very difficult one. She was reportedly suffering severe breathing difficulties multiple times over 2023, but was then seen driving a few months later, looking her usual chic self. Would expect her to still be around in 2025 but anything is possible with this wild card.
Raul Castro: 30%, touch and go whether he’ll see 2025, his siblings have died off, but no immediate health crisis evident with Raul makes me think this will be one of the candidates not to pay as much attention to in 2024.
Imelda Marcos: 40%, a longtime complainer but very well looked after, should see 2025 with another health problem or two.
Ted Turner: 35%, a great one for 2025, not so sure about 2024, still remains semi-active on Twitter, and there has been limited updates on his condition. I would have approved of Michael Schumacher or Michael York over Turner this year.
Buzz Aldrin: 20%, got married last year and looked in top form at the wedding. Jim Lovell is the astronaut candidate who will ascend in 2024. Aldrin will be one of the last, potentially even the last, of the 2024 DL survivors, if Wagner and Eastwood let him.
Sonny Rollins: 35%, sounded very sharp and healthy in 2023 interview, touch and go whether Sonny will be around in 2025, my guess is yes, by the skin of his teeth.
Sly Stone: 25%, a gut feeling he'll go aged 83 in 2026, nothing seemingly terminal health wise, just taken a lot over the years.
Tom Baker: 45%, has been getting out and about unaided in recent months, though he is getting more and more frail these days. One to include for sure in 2025, if he makes it...
Franz Beckenbauer: 85%, very nice addition. Pretty much a guarantee 2024 DL hit, with escalating reports on him nearing the end.
Joe Bugner: 25%, a feeling he'll throw in the towel in 2025, he's only 73 at this moment, only scarce updates on his health, and although the tallest on the list these days (has shrunk from 6'4" to about 6'3"), height does not play a big role health wise, it just makes it a bit harder for blood to pump around the body.
So if we take all the 50% plus candidates, we're looking at 25 hits (Carter, Francis, Kennedy, Laine, Gall, Chomsky, Brooks, Skinner, Starmer-Smith, Whale, Johns, Baxter, Woodward, Draper, Redgrave, Le Pen, Law, Brokaw, Nolan, Newhart, Rantzen, Flack, Cheney, Fritzl, Beckenbauer).
