chicago103

I suggested Betty Ford for 2007 and even though it seems she will live to see the new year (although you never know, her husband died in one the last few days of 2006!) she should be on the 2008 list. She has not been seen in public since her husband's funeral a year ago, was hospitalized for an unknown ailment in April and was absent from every presidential event whether it be related to her husband (aircraft carrier naming, commemorative postage stamp unveiling) or being the only absent former first lady at Lady Bird Johnson's funeral. She will turn 90 in 2008 and is already the third longest living first lady in history after Bess Truman and Lady Bird Johnson. She should also be kept on so we have at least one member of a former first family (US President or First Lady), a tradition here at death list as far back as before Richard Nixon's death in 1994. My point is that I strongly believe that Betty Ford will die before any other president or first lady. I don't see any other former president or first lady dying in 2008; Nancy Reagan is 86 but still very active and seemingly healthy; George H.W. Bush is 83 and sky-dived just a month ago and I don't think he will die while his son is still president so I predict we will have the first father and son pair of ex-president's come January 20, 2009.

Why don't I just start a new thread and poll about this very topic?

Well her husband did die the day after Christmas last year so maybe her sad holiday memories from last year could do her in before the end of this year. In any event she should remain on deathlist. She will be the next presidential death (president or first lady), I am sure of it. I dont think she will live as long as Lady Bird or her husband did, she would be lucky to live to her 90th birthday at this point. Well it's been a year since Gerald bit the dust and she's made it through. I for one was not so sure that she would live a year without him. Well nevertheless Betty Ford should remain on deathlist for 2008. She was hospitalized for an undisclosed problem this year, she hasn't been seen in public since her husband's funeral a year ago, contrast that with fellow presidential widow Nancy Reagan who is still very active with her late husband's presidential library and everything. Betty wasn't even there at the ceremonies that named the aircraft carrier after Gerald or the commemorative postal stamp. She will turn 90 in 2008 and is already the third oldest first lady in history (after Bess Truman and Lady Bird Johnson) not to mention the rumors that she is under hospice care.

Ermest Borgnine recently made a movie called A grandpa for Christmas which will air this week here in the U.S. He is on the cover of a TV guide I have and while he looks old and grandfatherly he doesnt look like he is dying. On the other hand we should consider keeping him because he is 90 years old and its hard to tell with alot of people that are 90+, he could die today or he could live to be 100.

Well her husband did die the day after Christmas last year so maybe her sad holiday memories from last year could do her in before the end of this year. In any event she should remain on deathlist. She will be the next presidential death (president or first lady), I am sure of it. I dont think she will live as long as Lady Bird or her husband did, she would be lucky to live to her 90th birthday at this point.

Jimmy Carter is now 83 and is in the news much more often than George Bush Sr.

Nancy Reagan must be very jeleous that her Ronnie is rekindling with his old flame Jane in the pearly gates right now.

1963: John F. Kennedy 1964: Herbert Hoover 1965: Winston Churchill 1966: Walt Disney 1967: Spencer Tracy 1968: Martin Luther King, Jr. 1969: Dwight D. Eisenhower 1970: Charles de Gaulle 1971: Nikita Khrushchev 1972: Harry S. Truman 1973: Lyndon Baines Johnson 1974: Georges Pompidou 1975: Moe Howard 1976: Mao Tse Tung 1977: Elvis Presley 1978: Pope John Paul I 1979: John Wayne 1980: John Lennon 1981: Anwar Sedat 1982: Princess Grace Kelly 1983: Muddy Waters 1984: Richard Burton 1985: Yul Brynner 1986: Cary Grant 1987: Jackie Gleason 1988: Roy Orbison 1989: Lucille Ball 1990: Sammy Davis, Jr. 1991: Dr. Seuss 1992: Sam Walton 1993: Audrey Hepburn 1994: Richard Nixon 1995: Yitzhak Rabin 1996: Carl Sagan 1997: Princess Diana 1998: Frank Sinatra 1999: King Hussein 2000: Sir Alec Guiness 2001: Mohammed Atta 2002: Queen Mother 2003: Bob Hope 2004: Ronald Reagan 2005: Pope John Paul II 2006: Gerald Ford 2007: Ask me on December 31st but the best candidates thus far are Boris Yeltsin, Lady Bird Johnson and Luciano Pavaratti. This year is unusual in that a lot of fairly significant people have died but unlike the last three years no one person who stands out yet.

Most significant deaths by decade: 1960's: JFK 1970's: Elvis 1980's: Princess Grace Kelly 1990's: Princess Di 2000's: Pope John Paul II Four died tragically and only one in old age.

Jesus Christ

1963: John F. Kennedy 1964: Herbert Hoover 1965: Winston Churchill 1966: Walt Disney 1967: Spencer Tracy 1968: Martin Luther King, Jr. 1969: Dwight D. Eisenhower 1970: Charles de Gaulle 1971: Nikita Khrushchev 1972: Harry S. Truman 1973: Lyndon Baines Johnson 1974: Georges Pompidou 1975: Moe Howard 1976: Mao Tse Tung 1977: Elvis Presley 1978: Pope John Paul I 1979: Nelson A. Rockefeller 1980: John Lennon 1981: Anwar Sedat 1982: Leonid Brezhnev 1983: Muddy Waters 1984: Richard Burton 1985: Yul Brynner 1986: Cary Grant 1987: Jackie Gleason 1988: Roy Orbison 1989: Lucille Ball 1990: Sammy Davis, Jr. 1991: Dr. Seuss 1992: Sam Walton 1993: Audrey Hepburn 1994: Richard Nixon 1995: Yitzhak Rabin 1996: Carl Sagan 1997: Princess Diana 1998: Frank Sinatra 1999: King Hussein 2000: Sir Alec Guiness 2001: Mohammed Atta 2002: Queen Mother 2003: Bob Hope 2004: Ronald Reagan 2005: Pope John Paul II 2006: Gerald Ford 2007: Lady Bird Johnson (thus far) I made a few changes, for one I changed it to Audry Hepburn for 1993, I was under the mistaken impression she died in 1994 (in which case Richard Nixon would win hands down), however I was always uneasy with Pat Nixon for 1993. For 2001 I switched George Harrison for Mohammed Atta the most infamous 9/11 hijacker, his death surely changed the world more than anybody else.

My revised list for those that haven't seen the edited first post: 1963: John F. Kennedy 1964: Herbert Hoover 1965: Winston Churchill 1966: Walt Disney 1967: Spencer Tracy 1968: Martin Luther King, Jr. 1969: Dwight D. Eisenhower 1970: Charles de Gaulle 1971: Nikita Khrushchev 1972: Harry S. Truman 1973: Lyndon Baines Johnson 1974: Georges Pompidou 1975: Moe Howard 1976: Mao Tse Tung 1977: Elvis Presley 1978: Pope John Paul I 1979: Nelson A. Rockefeller 1980: John Lennon 1981: Anwar Sedat 1982: Leonid Brezhnev 1983: Muddy Waters 1984: Richard Burton 1985: Yul Brynner 1986: Cary Grant 1987: Jackie Gleason 1988: Roy Orbison 1989: Lucille Ball 1990: Sammy Davis, Jr. 1991: Dr. Seuss 1992: Sam Walton 1993: Pat Nixon 1994: Richard Nixon 1995: Yitzhak Rabin 1996: Carl Sagan 1997: Princess Diane 1998: Frank Sinatra 1999: Glen T. Seaborg 2000: Sir Alec Guiness 2001: George Harrison 2002: Queen Mother 2003: Bob Hope 2004: Ronald Reagan 2005: Pope John Paul II 2006: Gerald Ford 2007: Lady Bird Johnson (thus far) About my methodology I tried to weigh those deaths that are shocking (JFK, Elvis, Pope John Paul I, Princess Diane) with those that are not but were of people who had a very long and lasting impact on the (Ronald Reagan, Pope John Paul II, Gerald Ford). A US President will almost always make the list if he dies in a given year unless a Pope, UK monarch or some other ultra world famous figure. Also just because a death is not shocking doesn't mean it didn't have a tremendous impact, take Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II, their deaths were far from unexpected and yet they were a media firestorm and created an outpouring of emotion worldwide, heck even Gerald Ford had this to a lesser extent. In general the longer someone has been well known or the longer ago they made their lasting mark on the world the more that plays in their favor. That can only be overcome by a death that is so shocking that it grabs the world's attention to the point that it takes away from someone who had a longer claim to fame. Case in point would be Princess Diane and Mother Theresa who died just a week apart. Mother Theresa had a longer impact on the world and in any other year she would have won but because she died the same year as Princess Diane who had a tremendous impact albeit for a shorter time but her death was so shocking that it put her over the top. Also in 1978 two popes dies, Paul VI who was pope for 15 years and John Paul I who was pope for 33 days and even though Paul VI had more of a long term impact his death was expected. John Paul I's death so soon after becoming pope under mysterious circumstances had more of an impact than the death of his predecessor. Now this can also work in reverse as it did this year with Anna Nicole Smith and Lady Bird Johnson. Smith's death was shocking and was a media firestorm, Lady Bird Johnson's death was not shocking and was in the media only for a few days. Now part of it might be that I just refuse to have Anna Nicole Smith be the most significant death even though it can hardly disputed at least here in the US her death was the most talked about of anybody who died. So I gave it to Lady Bird because she was famous before Anna Nicole Smith was even born and being the wife of a president takes precedent over a B-list tabloid celebrity. Celebrities only make the cut if they have a lasting impact for their form of entertainment and not for personality cult alone. Thus someone like Cary Grant or Lucille Ball can cut it but not Anna Nicole or someone like Paris Hilton. Elvis had/has a personality cult but he actually had a tremendous impact on music and culture in general. Incidentally I wonder why anyone would question my choice of Cary Grant for 1986 because I read on this site that death list was started in part because of his death near the end of that year that and the fact that he is a British American A-list actor of the silver screen. I considered Boris Yeltson for the top spot but Lady Bird Johnson had been famous long before even him. US first ladies are the only spouses of world leaders that could possibly be more significant than other world leaders and even then it depends on the first lady but in general it has to be a slow year for a first lady to win, I put Pat Nixon for 1993 mostly because I couldn't think of anyone else of significance who died that year. Jackie Kennedy would have surely made the list had she not died in the same year as Richard Nixon. In general the length of fame is measured from the year he or she became famous either in some earth shattering break through role or entered the office of which they are most well known. For a pope, president or first lady this would be when they assumed office. Thus you have Boris Yeltson 1991 vs. Lady Bird Johnson 1963. Death in office can overcome this, so can a shocking death and also the level of fame and worldwide media coverage and since the US has such a huge media impact unfortunately it plays a significant part and Yeltson rightly or wrongly had very limited media coverage even less than Lady Bird Johnson. I don't have a precise formula but I just go by gut instincts. So in short Lady Bird over Boris due to US media coverage and length of fame and Lady Bird over Anna Nicole due to political stature and length of fame.

Why isn't Chicago treasure Studs Terkel on the list? He is 95 years old now and appears to be slowing down. I should have recommended him for the 2007 list but I was too busy recommending Betty Ford due to her husband's recent death around New Year's. He is a good prospect and should be on future lists, if he lives that long. By the way I think he lives in my building (John Hancock Center), I saw a guy that looks and sounds a lot like him in the elevator on two separate occasions, one time just a week ago. He was talking to me about philosophy of life and everything, the kind of stuff he would say. He stopped off on one of the office floors of the building. He sounded just like a rambling old man but later on it hit me who he could be. He looked a little bit different than in pictures and he was frail but he was still able to walk around by himself, with a cane, presuming that really is him.

I assume you mean hospice care as in care at home for the critically ill, I doubt a woman of her stature would be put into a nursing home which is sometimes called a "hospice". Anyways as a note to everyone else, I know this sounds like just a rumor but I knew there was something eerily familiar about it and sure enough when I looked at Gerald Ford's thread an an unregistered user posted a similar message just days before his death. Look at the time stamp, this was just three days before Gerald Ford's death. I cant confirm that these two guests are one and the same since I don't know how to do an I.P. address trace on here but both use the words hospice and are somewhat similar in style. Perhaps this person has some inside knowledge in regards to the Ford family like a staffer in Rancho Mirage or the library or at museum in Michigan. If she is in hospice care and given all the secrecy around it that is a sign the end might be near for her as well. Gerald Ford and Lady Bird Johnson were also under hospice care between their final hospitalizations and death and Betty Ford was in the hospital for a few days in April. Hospice care would explain her absence from Lady Bird's funeral quite well. Death may come in threes this time for former first families (Gerald Ford, Lady Bird Johnson, Betty Ford).

Barbara Bush was in attendance at Lady Bird Johnson's funeral but her husband George H.W. Bush was absent even though he lives in Texas. I know his son W also didn't attend but he is the incumbent president and protocol usually does not dictate that a sitting president attend the funeral of a former first lady, only a former president, it might have conflicted with his scheduling. However the father as an ex-president doesn't have that excuse, especially when he lives not far away in Houston, I have no information on what he was doing that day schedule wise, the last time I think he appeared anywhere was for Boris Yeltson's funeral in April. Thus it would be almost rude to the Johnson family not to show up because he knew and had a good relationship with LBJ and Lady Bird in spite of him being of the opposite party. Maybe this is a sign he is having some health problems, maybe that fainting spell is a sign of something. I don't think he will die this year but he seems to be slowing down much more than Carter who is just about the same age. I think we should put George H.W. Bush on the 2008 list, I definitely believe he will be the next president to go.

Carter attended Lady Bird Johnson's funeral and looked fine, he is in great shape for a man of 82.

Nancy Reagan is doing OK from watching Lady Bird Johnson's funeral, she will be around for a few more years and Betty Ford (who did not attend Lady Bird's funeral) will go before she does.

Betty Ford was the only living first lady not to attend the funeral of Lady Bird Johnson, her daughter Susan Bailes Ford represented the family. I mean even 86 year old Nancy Reagan showed up. Just like her husband in his last few years it appears Betty has ceased or all but ceased public appearances and a hospitalization where they try to sound optimistic but are rather vague about what is wrong. In fact her last public appearance was her husband's funeral services. I think Betty Ford will end up as a statistic of a recently widowed elderly person that dies within a year of the death of their elderly and long term spouse. If that were to happen it would mean the death of a president and two first ladies within a year (2006/2007) just like Pat Nixon, Richard Nixon and Jackie Kennedy in 1993/1994, which would also mean another similar patter with the death of a president (Nixon, Ford), the death of that president's wife (Pat Nixon, Betty Ford) and the death of a first lady whose husband died over 30 years earlier (Jackie Kennedy, Lady Bird Johnson). Also as a side note Betty Ford at 89 is already the third longest lived first lady ever behind Bess Truman (97) and Lady Bird Johnson (94).

This is the second ominous post I have made since I joined this forum, I was also the last person to post in Gerald Ford's thread before his death and made a similar post about his death being near and now I make this post. On Christmas day (the day before Ford's passing) that Ford was more likely to go before New Year's that Lady Bird and thats what happened. I posted in this thread I just had a feeling about Lady Bird a few days before she died even though she had been out of the hospital for about two weeks about that time without any updates. I think Betty Ford is going to go next, this year. After all she was the only living first lady to not attend Lady Bird's funeral and she also was hospitalized this year for a number of days. Its interesting that they usually give rather rosy press releases when an ailing former president or first lady is in the hospital but it always seems they are just holding back information that their death is imminent, it was that way with Gerald Ford and Lady Bird and Betty Ford is going down the same path.

Nancy Reagan turned 86 on Friday, Betty Ford is 89 and Lady Bird Johnson is 94, there has to be some first lady deaths soon. The last first lady to die was Jackie Kennedy in 1994 one year after Pat Nixon in 1993.

I think Jimmy Carter will beat the record of Herbert Hoover on September 9, 2012 to have had the longest post-presidency ever. He will be three weeks shy of his 88th birthday by that point. Herbert Hoover had a post-presidency of 31 years and 7 months, Carter already has 26 years and 4 months as an ex-president, it would be more difficult to beat Gerald Ford's longevity record but the post-presidency record is more in his grasp, just over five years to go and he is in quite good health for his age.

You could tell by the way he worded that statement he released on the day he surpassed Reagan's record, he said he thanked God for every new sunrise or something to that effect, as if every day longer he lived was a blessing. Anyways I agree that what you said in the second part now that Ford is dead we have to start thinking about other political personalities. In terms of US presidents its not as clear cut who is the next to as in recent years, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter are about the same age but both are fairly healthy. I know what I said about Nixon dying suddenly at 81 but there was still some writing on the wall for him, his wife Pat's death hit him hard and he aged alot after that, I think thats what did him in. I found this photo of Nixon from March 1994, one month before his death and it will illistrate what I mean: Nixon, March 1994 Judge for yourself but I think that both Bush and Carter look to be in better shape today than Nixon did then.

Nixon did have his fatal stroke out of the blue, since I remember once reading that he was infact writing a letter to a friend who was recovering from a stroke, .. talk about couinsidence at it's strongest. I looked through records and the Bush faimly does have some extent of longevity. Well Lyndon B Johnson was a heavy smoker for years and he wasn't generally young by the time he dropped dead. George Bush, at eighty years old went sky diving. You can't be at the end and be jumping out of an airplane. Hell I would be f****n shakin to attempt a stunt like that. The writing might be on the wall for Bush, but very blury and sources show his father lived to be seventy eight and his grandfather eighty seven. This is a modern world with advanced technology, you could keep a person alive on a machine. Look at Ariel Sharon. I think Carter has a few more golden years then Bush, but not that many. In reality it's anybodys guess. P.S. that last "Guest" post was from me, I just forgot to log in. The story you mentioned about Nixon is true, he wrote that letter amoung several other things that day, it was actually a fairly productive day for him working at home. He wrote that letter to that stroke victim friend, a final copy of his last book, Beyond Peace arrived that day, he was working on a graduation speech for his grandson's middle school and he was writing a speech for a republican fundraiser for 1994 candidates. He actually had the attack towards the end of the day while relaxing on his porch. So Nixon was just as active if not moreso than Bush was, Nixon perhaps more intellectually and Bush more physically active. Jimmy Carter's post presidency is actually more similar to Nixon's than Bush's. Both Nixon and Carter spent their post-presidencies very involved in foreign policy whereas Bush was less active, Asian Tsunami notwithstanding. However health wise as of today, Bush is in worse shape than Carter. Just compare Bush in 2004 at Reagan's funeral and skydiving the next day to him at Gerald Ford's funeral a month ago, it was very subtle but he is slowing down. Carter seems to be more stable, he is aging sure but he looks and moves great for his age. I must say that the way Gerald Ford went was probably amoung the most peacefull of all the presidents, he wasnt assassinated, he didnt die of a sudden acute attack, he didnt die of a long term chronic disease and bedridden for years like Reagan, he didnt die in a hospital, he died at home and on top of it he had the longest life of all the presidents. Sure he had those heart problems his last year but he didnt seem to be suffering or lingering and you have to die of something afterall.

Ok, I will give this a shot, this is just a gut feeling I have and I hinted at it in Carter's and Bush 41's thread. Bush 41 will die in 2008 while his son is still president at 84 from a sudden stroke or heart attack similar to how Nixon went in 1994. Carter will live to about to 90+ and die of old age Gerald Ford style sometime between 2014 and 2018.

Watch coverage of Gerald Ford's funeral and you will see that George H.W. Bush has much more of an old man strut than Jimmy Carter even though Bush is only 4 months older. When Bush 41 gave his eulogy he seemed like he needed to grab onto something to support himself, when he touched Ford's casket it could have been just as much for support as it was an emotional gesture. When Jimmy Carter gave his eulogy he had no trouble walking whatsoever and walks great for a man of 82, also Bush has more of an old man's voice than Carter if that means anything. A few days later I read that Bush had some kind of hip surgury at the Mayo Clinic, he also had some kind of heart scare back in 1999 if I recall correctly. Jimmy Carter just hasnt had any major health problems I can think of, sure he is getting along in years but in terms of genetics his mother lived into her late 80's I believe. I think Bush Sr. will be the next president to go but it probably wont be while his son is still president, he will be 84 when he leaves office. It would be interesting having a father/son pair both as ex-presidents. Of course if something tragic were to happen to GWB and he doesnt finish his term than his father may go rather quick since he has become a very emotional old man as of late. Earlier in this thread someone also made a comparison to Richard Nixon who died at 81, Bush 41 is now older at 82 and is known to have heart problems just like Nixon did. Nixon had a sudden stroke and died a few days later, just a month prior he was on a foreign visit to Russia for a week and two days before his stroke he attended a wedding and appeared to be fine. So just because an old ex-president is active doesnt mean they wont die, not all old ex-presidents are going to go the way that Reagan and Ford did gradually deteriorating and people seeing it coming months and years in advance. Its possible that Bush 41 may have a Nixon style death via a sudden stroke or heart attack. I think its more likely to happen to Bush than Carter. I get the feeling that Carter will just die of simple old age at 90+ Gerald Ford style. I had a strong feeling that Gerald Ford would die in 2006 even as Christmas approached and there was almost no news about him so I might have some prophetic vision when it comes to Presidents in addition to Presidential death just being a morbid fascination of mine.