msc

Unless I'm barking up the wrong tree entirely, it is the Flipper guy, who has a Go Fund Me page for Stage IV cancer. I've no idea what his status is, but with Spade's record in sniffing out terminal cases from completely under the radar I'd have Halpin's obituary ready to print in 2016.

RadGuy becomes internationally famous!

You miss one small thing in the poll and it deletes entirely. It should be up now.

Obligatory Nanette Fabray/Sid Caesar sketch

When I picked him (because fortune favours the brave, I guess) I did figure it was "Daily Mail or bust".

Of course they knew - why would anyone care about him otherwise?

Well done, DI, a gamble well chosen there!

Living up to the fast and the furious so far!

So, that's 3 hits awaiting obits/confirmation in six days, Spade? Starting slow, I see.

Yeah, I've always viewed as a great opportunity to expand my horizons. A good example would be Oscar Niemeyer, whom I went within five years from going "Who the hell is that?" to actually having a twinge of sadness the night I saw he'd died on the BBC news. There was another DDP pick, brought to the forum's attention by DDT, who I wound up exchanging the odd email with.

Doris Lessing's daughter, and a name author in her own right. Never read her stuff though.

She's doomed, basically.

I guess I was right with my Candyman theory then. (New Years chat room in-joke)

Does seem like there might be mass carnage this year. From the lists published here, I'd guess the following as close as we get to dead certs in this post-Wilko Johnson world: Joey Feek, Kate Granger (and even then...), Martin Crowe, Howard Marks, Jenny Diski, Rene Angelil, Rob Ford, Joost van der Westhuizen, Dan Haggerty, Hassan Asif, Tony Adamowicz, Andrew Smith, Eric Lubbock, Peter Esterhazy, Bonnie Brown, Monty Brinson, Kris Travis, Rowena Kincaid, Luke Halpin. Oh, and Michel Delpech (est morte). Now, some of those will certainly outlive the odds, and some might not get obits, but presuming they all did die, and get an obit, then a table of Deathlist forum regulars would so far look like this: Spade 130 Captain Chorizo 104 (Heading Nowhere) Garn2 97 Eesti 95 Death Impends 92 Switch 90 Dead Cow 86 (Still Life) DDT 84 Shaun of the Dead 80 Gcreptile 79 Rotten Ali 72 Going Underground 70 Banshees Scream 67 Pedro67 66 Deadsox 65 Sir Creep 64 Drunkasaskunk 61 Vignos 54 Unknown Man 51 Morbid Kid 36 Vinegar Tits 23 YoungWilz 18 Lard Bazaar 7 Now, that's not counting folk with cancer who are 50/50, or old folk (because they're a lottery), and, as Wilko, Sam Simon and Valerie Harper show respectively, sometimes folk have miraculous recoveries, sometimes folk hang on for an extra year, and sometimes folk take ages. Plus, there's got to be a reason, beyond age, a bunch of you all picked Pat Harrington. It does suggest Chorizo and Garn have teams to look out for this year, though. Final proof this methodology is a bit rubbish? It would have my team scoring 100 points. Yeah, right, and I'm Pope Francis.

My thought is that he was probably caught out in a sting, so a bit daft. Mind you, he remains Simon Danczuk, so no sympathy.

Ah, now when I had read about a fifth of book 4 I discovered that someone had created a way of rearranging books 4 and 5 so that they could be read as a single book. And it could be downloaded to an e-reader. So that's what I did. I have got the books anyway, so felt entitled to do that. Ah yes, I've heard of that. At least, I got to read the books so late I didn't have to wait for 6 years between book 4 and 5 like the fans, but instead read them one after the other last fall. But it's essentially true, book 4 and 5 are one book, plot-wise. Me too, I only read them recently. I suspect that GRRM originally intended 'A Feast For Crows' and 'A Dance With Dragons' to be a single book, but again his failure to meet deadlines caused problems. It wouldn't surprise me if they were officially merged and re-published at some time in the future. I don't read the books, so can't tell you which is which, but I do know a few years ago, Martin was working on what was meant to be the final book in the series, only to realize he had written over 1500 pages and was nowhere close to a conclusion!

Blimey, congrates to Sir Creep. It was certainly a year for people nicking in front with one of the last hits of a game. The Deathrace and DDP also ended in that way.

I'd look ill too if I were involved with Talkshite. If I'd have seen THIS a week ago no doubt The Dynamite Kid would be in my top 20. Big miss. His death guaranteed. SC http://www.lordsofpain.net/news/wwe/Wrestling_Legend_Still_Hospitalized_Backstage_Talk_on_a_WWE_SmackDown_Change_Brock_Lesnar.html Many thought that a year or two ago after he had a prior massive stroke, and he's still hanging on. He's like a cockroach (though cockroaches are friendlier).

No, as I mostly agree with you about the cancer mums.

It's subtle, but I'm detecting a theme about Windsor's posts tonight.

First off, good luck running this again, MPFC, it's always good fun, and thanks for taking a team in PM, and keeping it secret. Even if everyone else had the names, and I nicked your intended joker by ESP! Second off, hope you managed to enjoy your new year. Third off, Delpech died after I ruled him out of my team? That bloody bastard. Hah.

I entered it for the first time with the following. Michael of Romania Richard Adams Michael Anderson Liliane Bettencourt ER Braithwaite Guy Hamilton Peter Sallis Vera Lynn Douglas Wilmer Herman Wouk As you can see, it was more a "so this is how this website works" test run than a serious shot.

Farren was a "between the lines" thing. He had Stage IV brain cancer, and raised money to go to Mexico for experimental treatment as the usual stuff wasn't working. In August, he said they didn't know yet if the experimental treatment was a success. In November, before the FAI Cup final, it was mentioned that Farren was currently suffering from serious cancer. Could have got the wrong end of the stick, but judging from the DDP thread, a few more sensible posters take the same punt. As for Diski, she clearly thinks (from her LRB articles and twitter) that she wont see Christmas.

Great analysis, you know much more than I do obviously about some of these! Where, other than Wikipedia, is the best place to go to find health info for some of these? Other than the Xmas Day episode of Strictly for Brucie of course... This forum, google news, TV, all kinds of places. There isn't a one shop "Celebritys Ailing" website that I know about.

Person by person then Martin Crowe - terminally ill, has outlasted his prognosis. Chances of dying in 2016: 99% Zsa Zsa - As I've said before, she'll go one day when we least expect it. Joao Havelange - Old, health issues, remaining relevant due to age old corruption. I can't believe he's still with us. I'd be more shocked if he was here in a years time. Olivia de Havilland - Seemed in fairly good fettle last year, but 12 months is a long time in your 100th year. Bhumibol Adulyadej - Hopefully, so we can stop trying to spell his name. Billy Graham - I trust him as much as the wrestler. Wouldn't surprise me to see him clinging on in two years. Herman Wouk - Statistically likely to go this year, I'd assume. Javier Perez de Cuellar - Haven't a clue. Richard Adams - Well enough to be interviewed by Mumsnet in December. His frequent media appearances have become rather limited though. Kirk Douglas - Who knows? Abe Vigoda - Has he done anything in years? Liz Smith - Another aging actress. Law of averages suggests at least 5 of the old folk will go, just through the art of being old. Mary Tyler Moore - A forum favourite, I didn't think she was that ill, but I could be wrong. Nancy Reagan - Usually too determined to think of dying, but reports in September were she was too frail to attend the GOP debates. Now, she might have said that because she preferred watching Breaking Bad on Netflix... Peter Sallis - Probably. Prince Philip - Someone who will only leave the list one way. 2016 doesn't seem any likelier than 2015, at this point. James Randi - He might well become a grumpy ghost. He did retire from his own Foundation last year. Lord Carrington - Seemed in fine fettle in recent interviews. I suppose age could see him off. Clive James - Nah, he'll see 2017. Bob Dole - As will he. Joost van der Westhuizen- Joost is in Year 5 of ALS now. As seen before (Borgonovo), this is usually an event horizon with the illness. Prunella Scales - Good pick. Well publicised health issues, and have heard, off the record, its more dire than papers report. Jimmy Carter - I know many took him off their DDP lists, but this could be a good sleeper hit, especially if the cancer returns towards the end of the year. Henry Kissinger - Doubt it. Tommy Chong - I thought his cancer was less serious than most, so it seems a wasted pick right now. Doug Ellis - Looked hideous at the FA Cup final, but Spade and others said he was looking better in October interviews. George Bush Sr- Well, he is getting to the upper limit US Presidents tend to reach. Vera Lynn - Allegedly quite frail. Leslie Philips - This was a guy who was everywhere. Had that massive stroke last year,and we've heard barely a peep since. Age, health, and health issues before the big one, plus lengthy atypical quietness suggests a decent chance of a hit here. Fidel Castro - Haven't a clue. Sandy Gall - I like this pick. More Scots on the list, please. Fats Domino - "Is he still alive?" asks my wife. How he outlived so many of his contemporaries I'll never know. There seems to be a clear out in the older music generation the now, so a good chance of Domino saying sayonara in 2016 - he's had health issues for ages iirc. Robert Pirsig - Never heard of him. As a number of people have mentioned to me since that he's apparently in frail health, I'll concede this might be a good pick. Desmond Tutu - Cancer, and in and out of hospital. Doesn't seem in immediate danger. Lester Piggott - A very Deathlist pick, but seems a bit early from my limited knowledge. Glen Campbell - Well, I dropped him in the DDP because I thought 2016 was too early, so given my form... Stan Lee - Wasn't he meant to be seriously ill in 2012? That's all I know. Boutros-Boutros Ghali - Apparently in frail health. Jake Lamotta - Still going, somehow. Cliff Michelmore - Given his retirement, no one knows how his health is. Denis Norden - Going blind but seems quite cheery. Murray Walker - Seems in good spirits to me. Jimmy Greaves - Frail after massive stroke. Good pick. Gordon Banks - Has kidney cancer in his one remaining kidney. Could be a clever pick indeed if he goes downhill quickly. (He had cancer before, this is its comeback.) Muhammad Ali - Well, he's not going to see 80... Jacques Chirac - Allegedly frail, and highly Deathlist-able. Stephen Hawking - Haven't a clue, given his life expectancy beating so far... Paul Gascoigne - Wasted pick. Feels like an early 90s plump too. John Noakes - Alzheimer's and frail, I'd say good choice here. Bruce Forsyth - Well, he did just survive a massive aneurysm, so you can see why he might be a good pick. So, 5 odd age deaths, plus Joost and Crowe, plus Scales/Sallis/Philips gives 10. Gutting feeling (look at the names and asking myself if I see them alive in 2017) gives us around 14 hits though. Anyhow, time will tell.