gcreptile

The next Armenian genocide survivor dies: http://asbarez.com/159452/armenian-genocide-survivor-passes-away-at-110-years-old/

Without my middle name: Dicky Slamm, which I like. With my middle name: Ricky, the really famous porn star, which I don't like.

RIP...

Could have been worse...

Jill Gascoine

Just what I was about to say. First hit of the year for the list.

"Battling" Betty Tebbs, fighter for workers' rights since 1932, dead at 98: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/farewell-battling-betty-tebbs-who-9684963

S'cuse the pedantry but... Their very survival proves it wasn't genocide Hmm, "attempted genocide"? There's a wikipedia page for it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Genocide_survivors

There are now obituaries for "last survivors of armenia genocide": http://asbarez.com/159247/last-armenian-genocide-survivor-in-canada-passes-away/ The very last ones will probably be quite obitable.

Mark Sims a hit for me here, and I'm probably not alone.

I used to frequent forums of "edgy" music bands, think Marilyn Mansion and the like, I was surprised by how spread out the use of anti-depressants among the commenters was. They never seemed to help. But this could be a chicken-and-egg thing.

Clark, because it's an alliteration.

Artist...or criminal? J.S.G. Boggs who painted his own money, and did it so well that his creation entered the money circulation, has died at 62: https://news.artnet.com/art-world/jsg-boggs-money-artist-died-62-828554

I could solve the riddle why "Instagram star with cancer" Cheyann Shaw/Clark appears under two names in my list, Cheyann Shaw and Cheyann Clark. It's because she appears with both names in different articles: http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellbeing/fitness/a-23yearold-bodybuilder-is-being-ravaged-by-ovarian-cancer--and-instagramming-it-all-20161221-gtg7s4.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3998358/Bikini-model-Cheyann-Clark-shares-brave-photos-cancer-stricken-body.html She's picked under both names in the DDP, both times unique - but not so unique after all!

I would agree that Rick Davies may well turn out to be a good pick. About Ian Brady: He said the same "I'm terminally ill" stuff 2015 already. Personally, I don't believe him, but if there is a chance that he speaks the truth, he's worth a lot of expected points, with him being in the Drop 40. About Alan Aspin, he probably has to die quickly to obit. Though true, you never know... I would never have believed that the Lisa Brown story gets picked up by the Daily Mail again, though still, they haven't reported her death... yet. And someone might ...again... pick up Alan Aspin's story. But if I think about the hit/list-of-the-lost-ratio of Shameless, I think it's relatively unlikely.

Magill wasn't picked very often, and you have Suisala instead. If I may be so bold, I would say that you have a couple of punts that may not be successful, especially Aspin and Brady. Davies is also doing well, I hear? But then, nobody ever got 20 hits, and it's very, very unlikely (but not impossible) that someone gets them this time.

Well, there's a lot of my own opinion in it anyway. Still, statistically, cancer is much more fatal than old age - within a timespan of 12 months. On the other hand, if you watch people carefully, you might be able to beat the statistics.

A quick update now that Mark Sims has obited and Tracy McGiffin is also dead - quite the boost for those with Sims as joker. RadGuy has the double benefit of both Joker-Sims and McGiffin. DQSP overtakes The Love Boat by a tiny amount in spite of The Love Boat scoring twice (In 2016, I was slightly surer of Tracy McGiffin being a hit than of Mark Sims obiting, so the Sims boost is bigger than the McGiffin boost.). 1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (151,27) 2. The Love Boat (150,92) 3. A Day In the Death (148,81) 4. To Kill a Gabor Sister (148,32) 5. Thomas Jefferson Survives (147,91) 6. Golden Slumbers (145,72) 7. Pan Breed (142,35) 8. New Years and Drinks All Night (138,75) 9. Still Life (137,41) 10. droller coaster (137,38) 11. The Living End (135,53) 12. Garn2 (134,81) 13. Dead Ends (134,4375) The people who didn't pick Sims fall back, especially The Living End and Toast, whose place is now occupied by new entry Dead Ends - a very solid team that just slightly went for quantity above quality by picking Yisrael Kristal and Emma Morano. Those with their joker still alive can also still expect a bit of a bounce. I repeat that I like to estimate conservatively, so I've hardly assigned 100% (or 0%) probabilities to anything. As an example, Leah Bracknell currently sits at 9,60 expected points because I assigned her a probability of dying of "only" 80%. If she dies, it increases to 12pts, so everyone with her as a joker gets 2+2,40 pts =4,80pts. A more extreme example is al-Baghdadi who I have at 7,08pts. But if he gets killed, he's worth 13pts, so a bonus of 2x6=12 pts for those who picked him as joker.

This is the time when those with the cancer mums and dads pull away... Lisa Magill is probably next.

Major estonian composer Veljo Tormis dead at 86: http://slippedisc.com/2017/01/estonia-mourns-a-major-composer/

Street musician Juggling Jim has died: http://www.klfm967.co.uk/news/klfm-news/2206197/confirmed---juggling-jim-has-died/ Apparently quite the figure in King's Lynn...

Update! The following changes: Wayne Barrett is now dead and has received a QO, same with Paul Briggs. Their expected scores increase, especially Barrett's score. I should note that I went "conservative" on those names new to me. Since I hadn't followed their cases before the DDP, I knew nothing about Briggs and Barrett, so I didn't give them a 100% of dying even though it was probably warranted - at least in Briggs' case. Another change: Mark Sims' probability of dying in 2017 is now at 100%, but his obitability dropped from 70% to 50%, so a slight decrease for almost everyone, and a huge boost to Death Impends - with DDT also on the rise, because he had Briggs, but not Sims: 1. The Love Boat (143,21) - could use a hit, but a QO for Sims will but DQSP at the top 2. Thomas Jefferson Survives (141,91) 3. A Day in the Death (141,1) 4. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (139,27) 5. The Living End (135,53) 6. Pan Breed (134,64) 7. To Kill a Gabor Sister (134,61) 8. Garn2 (133,1) 9. New Years and Drinks All Night (132,75) 10. Golden Slumbers (132,01) 11. droller coaster (131,38) 12. I'm sorry for your trouble (130,15) 13. Still Life (129,7)

The Guardian used to cover him, I think that's the best bet. In my calculation I gave him a 70% chance of obiting. Though I do believe that he's one terror attack, or two A-list deaths away from not obiting.

Richard Overton faces eviction from his home because of spiralling health care costs: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/oldest-world-war-ii-veteran-9670959

An interesting draw! Edit: I'm a bit drunk at the moment. So I speak freely: I think it's a big disadvantage to post your team. While I considered creating my own deadpool, I thought about how to participate myself in there as well. My solution: To send my team in advance to another universaĺly respected person on this forum. Back then, I thought Rotten Ali would be a good choice.