gcreptile

So I've calculated 141,7 pts for The Love Boat this year, out of 214 possible.92,62 for Shameless, plus some points for Jay Clark, let's say, around 100pts. 86,27 pts for The B-Team (scores for Shameless and The B-Team are not up-to-date, as I have to adjust Drop 40/unique/obit chances). The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 146,52pts, but I've decided against picking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and against picking Lucas Kinney (and I slightly attributed some more risk to The Love Boat). The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac, followed by Joseph Kony and Marieke Vervoort. Watch this space, if you're interested in my calculations for other teams (not entirely unselfish, as it is a research exercise). DQSP: 108,47+7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus)+ 8,1 (Paul Briggs) + 5,34 (Laurie Brokenshire) + 5,1 (Michael Perham) = 134,76 (Paul Briggs and Jagraj Singh would now be in my main team) TLE: 102,46 + 7,80 (al-Baghdadi joker bonus) + Steve Pollard (1,31) + Susanne Cameron-Blackie (???) + Vincent Lambert (1,96) + Les Mutrie (5,61) = 119,14 plus Anna Raccoon (which I can't figure out) TJS: 115,06 + joker bonus + 3,83 (Wayne Barrett) = 118,89 + joker bonus = Heading Nowhere: 113,25pts + joker bonus = Pan Breed: 120,39+8,99 (Gord Downie joker bonus)+ 5,28 (Anna Holmlund)=134,66 Bert Trautmann: 114,22 + 7,75 (Mark Sims joker bonus) + 4,36 (Jerome Golmard) + 4,14 (Patrick Cryne) = 130,47 Going Underground: 81,39 + 7,53 (Tracy McGiffin joker bonus) + Sonny West + Leon White + Paul Madeley + Rena Salmon + Jessi Zazu = Cancel My Appointments: JoeyRuss: 124,18 + 8,38 (Ben Suisala joker bonus) = 132,56 RadGuy: Dead as a Doornail: Still Life: (I will add teams as I encounter them and find them interesting - the single names are those I had to add to my long list, and while I didn't do the same exercise for other teams last year, it should not be terribly surprising if my team scores best - because, after all, that's why I picked the people I picked. But the new-to-me picks can shake things up.) Love to know what you make of my crumbles!! I'll do it tomorrow, I promise! You have lots of different and new (to me) names, and I'm afraid I might not judge them right today.

So I've calculated 142,13 pts (updated!) for The Love Boat this year, out of 226 possible. Shameless: 105,19 out of 262 (!) pts possible (updated!) B-Team: 91,31 for The B-Team out of 198pts possible (updated!) The best possible team I could have fielded, according to my longlist would go on to score 159,49pts (updated!), The highest scoring person I didn't pick (bar the terrorists) was Jacques Chirac (6,72pts), followed by Joseph Kony (5,85pts) and Marieke Vervoort (5,60pts unnatural death!). Calculations for other teams: (2016/01/03) Updated with changes to the uniqueness chance (Hvorostovsky, DJ Casper more likely unique; several people not unique after all), Drop 40 chance uptick for Wetton DQSP: 134,04 (updated with increased Drop 40 chance for Wetton) TLE: 121,635 (Updated!) TJS: 125,3 (Updated!) Heading Nowhere: 115,46 (updated!) Pan Breed: 133,338 Bert Trautmann: 129,93 (updated!) Going Underground: 109,03 (updated!) Cancel My Appointments: 86,63 JoeyRuss: 131,54 (updated!) RadGuy: 128,35 (updated) Dead as a Doornail: 109,45 (new!) Still Life: 123,35 (Van Zandfliet not unique, higher Drop 40 chance for Wetton) Blueberry Crumble: 21 + joker bonus + 0,90 (Nigel Lawson) = 21,90 + joker bonus Gooseberry Crumble: 25,52 + joker bonus + 1,80 (Lord Snowdon) = 27,32 + joker bonus Apricot Crumble: 35,68 + joker bonus + 1,05 (Geoffrey Boycott) = 36,73 + joker bonus Cancerous Hatred: 108,10 (updated!) Shaun of The Dead 69: 89,48 Garn2: 124,26 I'm sorry for your trouble: 115,876 Here's who you could have won: 82,357 drol: 120 (new!) DDP Tofoa: 98,817 MPFC: 96,0045 For better oversight....the table... 1. The Love Boat 142,13 (updated - please don't forget, I'm obviously relatively more confident in my own picks, so you may well watch me fail, if my unique picks aren't unique or if, say, Mao Kobayashi doesn't obit) 2. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals 134,04 (updated!) 3. Pan Breed 133,338 (updated!) 4. Day in the Death 131,54 (updated!) 5. Bert Trautmann 129,93 (updated!) 6. To Kill A Gabor Sister 128,35 (Updated! This score decreased by a bit more than the others - 3pts - because I had to nullify several uniqueness bonus points) 7. Thomas Jefferson Survives 125,3 (updated!) 8. Garn2: 124,26 (new) 9. Still Life 123,35 (updated!) 10. The Living End - 121,635 (updated!) 11. Drol - 120,00 (new!) 12. I'm sorry for your trouble 115,876 (new!) 13. Heading Nowhere 115,46 (updated! I had a fairly high chance of Emma Houlston being unique in my list, I had to change that.)

I picked him because his ex-wife says he's getting frailer each time she sees him. Sometimes the ALS people just seem to stop declining. And while they are in terrible health, they do not die, see: Jason Becker. Let's see.

I'm mostly surprised they picked her and not Sean Connery. Two questions: Was Pussy Galore a lesbian who got "turned around"? Is Monty Python the male parody name of Pussy Galore?

He's like the Doctor who killed James Brown and Michael Jackson, only he's not a doctor!

Quincy appears here and there, looks ok, but yes, the thread is a good idea.

In the 2016 thread I pretty accurately predicted the score of my Main Team. This time, I predict myself to be in the 130-140 range. I'll calculate something similar this evening for others. Edit: I have a feeling, this year's teams are riskier. I calculate scores by weighting them with probabilities. The Love Boat 2016 got 119pts out of 160-170 possible. This time 200+ pts are possible but the probability is lower.

Congratulations, Spade! If I recall correctly, I declared Cpt. Chorizo the favourite after the death of Jade Pateman early in the year. I was off by the slightest bit. And that came after the Delpech fiasco - which didn't change anything after all (my place also wouldn't have changed).

Again, congratulations MPFC!

Oh, last week it was a 50:50 decision at the book store whether to buy Atkinson's book or the new one by Michael Lewis. I bought the latter. If I had known that Atkinson was about to die....

Aww... no unique with Sharon Laws after all. I didn't expect it anyway. I thought I'd most likely get one with Catherine Nevin, ha!

My scenario: He's stabilized a little but organ failure sets in soon. Jan. 20th

I'm getting confused by that myself. Two weeks ago, I read that he had a 7th heart transplant. I don't know what to believe...

Yes, that was a dilemma. I couldn't resist picking him in Shaun's Deadpool though (the replacement window). Contradicting myself there... without payoff.

Yes, agree, the worst new pick. I guess the committee doesn't want to miss the next Star Wars death.

I really like DI's Space Theme Team, especially because someone picked Catherine Johnson. Her story is interesting. @Charles Bradley: My husband was supposed to attend his concert in Berlin in the fall (as legally requiered First Aid personnel). It was cancelled then with the diagnosis. At the next concert at the same location, the concert organizer said that the treatment is going well and they plan to come to Berlin in 2017. So that can be observed. If however the cancer returns, similar to that uk wrestler last year (I forgot the name), he'll die.

Good analysis, msc. My guess: 20/50

Errol Christie

As I already said, I didn't pick John Wetton. It never crossed my mind. Might be a mistake if he makes the Drop 40. On the other hand, in contrast to last year, I tried to minimize regret and actually picked the people I suggested myself, though sometimes only in the B-Team. This year, the B-Team is actually my salvage lot, so here are some thoughts: Seiji Ozawa - Health is getting worse. Likely unique, but probably not terminally ill after he had surgery "to take it all out". Andrew Fairlie - I'm proud of this pick. But you don't know when or if the treatment stops working. John Swinton of Kimmerghane - just to have an interesting unique pick. Only reason is age Julia Perez - high risk, high reward. She's a bit of an attention seeker. Who knows if her illness is real, and the only obit chance is the BBC world news section I guess. Herbert Kretzmer - looked terrible when he sat down for an interview with Charles Aznavour. Another hunt for a unique hit. Colin Butts - might obit, might not. Also still in adequate health. Ray Pfeifer - had main team potential. There's a couple of articles on 9/11 first responders with cancer each year. Kevin Murray - kicked him off the main team in the final week. Hope I don't regret it. But my experience with Gary Haggarty gave me no other choice. Ah, two Generation Game people I didn't pick after all: Lord Henry Mountcharles - looking forward to host Guns'n'Roses in 2017 Sir Owen Glenn -probably dead soon, probably obiting. Probably unique. Was enough for a substitution. Edit: And Quincy Jones might be a fraud.

Hm, if al-Baghdadi had been hit by a drone we'd know by now. And it's almost monday in Japan, so if Seijun Suzuki's death isn't announced very soon, he's probably still alive.

Hm, unique potential for me for Connie Johnson, Sharon Laws, Dmitri Hvorostovsky, and possibly DJ Casper? This time, I had to pick Hvorostovsky. I didn't want to miss the "Pearl Washington of 2017". I'm surprised Sir Creep didn't pick Connie Johnson. @SpadeCooley: Aah, clever!

Jagraj Singh - I have him in the Deathrace. A QO will surprise me.

And the two solutions to my allusions: The person I had inside knowledge of, about his cancer fight going well but who I expected to be picked by quite a few deadpoolers was.... Charles Bradley. But stomach cancer is tricky, we'll see... The person I wasn't sure if he's unique, because his age was a little high and who was a member of a one-hit-wonder group was Gary De Carlo. I pushed him to my second team. He looks like a DQSP pick, and the 7 base points were too few.

My teams (order in the email was different) The Love Boat 1. Leah Bracknell - joker 2. Errol Christie 3. Mao Kobayashi 4. Joost Van Der Westhuizen 5. Glen Campbell 6. Sara Coward 7. Gord Downie 8. Sharon Laws 9. Connie Johnson 10. Tracy McGiffin 11. Valeri Spiridonov 12. Dmitri Hvorostovsky 13. Rayya Elias 14. Mark Sims 15. Daisy Berkowitz 16. DJ Casper 17. Greg Gilbert 18. Simon Ricketts 19. Stefan Karl Stefansson 20. Catherine Nevin Subs: 1. King Michael of Romania 2. Bishop Geoffrey Robinson 3. Sir Owen Glenn The B-Team 1. Gary De Carlo - joker 2. Steve Hewlett 3. Steve Gleason 4. Nick Boles 5. Kevin Murray 6. Julia "Jupe" Perez 7. Ray Pfeifer 8. John Swinton of Kimmerghane 9. Colin Butts 10. Herbert Kretzmer 11. Colin Meads 12. Steve Sumner 13. Seiji Ozawa 14. Smith Hart 15. Bishop Eddie Long 16. Anthony Booth 17. Paul Van Zandfliet 18. Jimmy Snuka 19. Andrew Fairlie 20. Peter Skellern Sub: 1. Caroline Laws 2. Irene Triplett 3. Lyon Gardiner Tyler Jr. Shameless 1. Lisa Magill - joker 2. Aundrea Bannatyne 3. Heidi Loughlin 4. Sophie Sabbage 5. Jay Clark 6. Ben Suisala 7. Bobby Zarin 8. Irfon Williams 9. Cheyann Clark 10. Emma Houlston 11. Jessica (-Jayde) Allen 12. Leanne Hock 13. Juan Pedro Franco 14. Alan Aspin 15. Hannah Lyson 16. Gemma Nuttall 17. Natalie Daniells 18. Laura Saull 19. Kath Osmond 20. Sally Major Sub: 1. Jennie Yoo 2. Colin Baddiel 3. Kris Hallenga

Congratulations, Pedro!