Sly Ronnie

One other future event to consider is the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting which is taking place in Samoa from October 21st to October 25th. The PM, whoever it will be, will be expected to attend. Would be awkward to do this during an election campaign.

In 2001 during the election campaign, Deputy Labour Leader John Prescott once punched a voter in the face. The Labour Party won the election with a majority of 167.

Wont last the year, unfortunately.

That's sad. He was "s-s-super" in Reginald Perrin! Was also in a rather poignant episode of Shelly with Hywell Bennett as a fellow unemployed man as they pondered on the increasing unemployment around them. RIP.

IDS is another one to look out for on election night. Determined to stay and fight in his seat - I reckon he's toast!

The most football chairmany name ever!

Apparently the lettuce will be releasing its own memoir entitled Liz Truss: My Part in Her Downfall.

Kelly's playing catch up I see.

Not health related but worth noting that 2010 World Champion Neil Robertson has failed to qualify for The Crucible for the first time in 20 years.

True but it would be a bloody good laugh!

Ncuti Gatwa would probably be a Metro reader.

That would be the Portillo Moment if she were to cop it.

So I'm assuming none of this 27 or so children will not be going onto politics then?

And here comes his hearse:

OK. I've been doing some number and date crunching and seeing what Sunak's options are for calling a General election and when the starting gun will go.. As of week beginning 8th April 2024, if the PM was to announce a GE then it would take place on 23rd May. Curiously one of the statutes maintained from the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 was the retention of the 25 working days until Polling Day. This was increased from 18 (used to be 17 before that) up to the 2010 GE. Gordon Brown announced the election on 6th April, Parliament was dissolved on 12th April and the election took place 30 days after the announcement - a gap of time that will not be repeated I'd imagine for some time to come. When Parliament is in session, then time is given for any legislation that could be passed to go through the house, any loose ends to be tied up and for any departing MPs to have their final speech or whatever before dissolution (Parliament is more often than not prorogued (put in stasis basically) a few days before actual dissolution. With that in mind, I would say there would be approximately 6 weeks from announcement until the election give or take a day or two. There could be an exception when Parliament is in recess (I'll get to that bit). So here is the timetable to keep an eye on (up until Summer Recess): W/B 15/04/24 ----- 30/05/24 W/B 22/04/24 ----- 06/06/24 (D-Day, as I've mentioned before, could be an awkward date that one) W/B 29/04/24 ----- 13/06/24 (week of the Local Elections) W/B 06/05/24 ----- 20/06/24 (brief recess - May holiday) W/B 13/05/24 ----- 27/06/24 Anything after this and we into summer holiday time. There hasn't been a July election since 1945 (July 5th). Parliament's summer recess begins on 24th July, lasting until 1st September. A recess may also cool down any attempts by his party to unseat him. Now, if there is any opportunity for Sunak to perhaps catching the opposition on the hop, it might be here. He could conceivably call an election say in the middle of August, and as Parliament wouldn't need to be recalled, he could get away with a swift announcement-cum-dissolution with a gap of barely 5 weeks, so he could go on holiday, come back and announce sometime in the week beginning 12th August for an election to be held on 19th September. Admittedly there has never been an election held in September since the single day election was introduced in 1918. However there is much to be said for a September poll: The weather is often usually good and other countries (such as Germany) regularly hold elections in this month. So 19th/26th September are viable options. As would 3rd/10th October. Any further down the line and then the party conferences come into view. Liberal Democrats hold theirs on 14th September, Labour on 22nd, Tories 29th. If there are to be scrapped in favour of a poll (covering 17th/24th October) then he'll have to head for the Palace in the first week or so of September. If Sunak waits until just after the Tory conference he could be storing himself for trouble, as I'll get down to in a bit... Let's discuss a couple of events that are covered in this time period (it's trivial but worth a mention). The first is the Euros, which take place from 14th June to 14th July. Now as mentioned earlier, July polls are no-no (likely) but there could still be one held while the tournament is taking place. Both England and Scotland are talking part with t he former very strongly favoured to win the thing. Now would the PM be tempted to ride on the back of football-based euphoria he may take heed of the lesson of Harold Wilson. Wilson also tried to catch Heath on the hop by declaring an earlier than expected election for June 18th 1970, while England were defending their World crown in Mexico. Of course it all ended in disaster for Sir Alf Ramsey & Harold as England were knocked out by West Germany four days before the poll. Now I'm nor saying it was "Der Bomber" that won it for Ted Heath but has been suggested that it did perhaps darken the mood in the run up to polling day (as did the trade figures released that week - different times, no one gives a monkeys about that sort of thing now). Another event this summer is the Olympic Games (incidentally the 1964 games in Tokyo took place while the election was on) which take place from July 26th to August 11th. Again, I don't think this will have much of an impact on national morale, although Team GB have done rather well in recent games history... So what is this trouble Sunak might get himself into? The final event which I will cover - the US Presidential Election to held on November 5th. If I was Sunak, I'd be very wary of holding a UK General Election anywhere near this date. If Biden wins, there may not be much difference to the British electorate. But if Trump wins, yes maybe the right might be galvanised but I think there will be the opposite effect: The left/centre-left/centrist/moderates may be enraged enough to wreak righteous revenge on the Tories by any means through the ballot boxes (tactical voting) and they would have to wait a mere 2 (or 9) days to do just that. Could get way with 21st November. After that, the clock is ticking. The public weren't all that keen on a December poll in 2019 and as for January 23rd - a Christmas campaign? To probably mis-quote Lord Hailsham he have to be stark raving bonkers to call an election for that time. In conclusion for gaming purposes I'm sticking with my initial 17th October prediction but considering the possibilities outlined herein, the late June/late September/early October are most realistic options.