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msc

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Everything posted by msc

  1. msc

    General Election 2024?

    Also they want her to go hard on them in her spare time instead.
  2. msc

    Political Frailty

    An NHS campaigner being replaced by a hedge fund manager did sum up the 2010 election, mind you.
  3. msc

    Political Frailty

    A @Gooseberry Crumble type miss. Only ever picked by me so LOTL. Ran as an independent solely to bring back the A&E department at Kidderminster which happened during his time in office, perhaps making him one of the most successful politicians of the century tbh. He was also very pro trains and very anti Iraq War, two things I agree with.
  4. msc

    Football

    Aye and then Spain bored their way to the title! Austria have impressed me too. Before the tournament I heard folk talking them up and thought "in that group? Good luck". And they went and won it. Turkey have been fun too. Should be a good game, that. Watch it end 0-0 now. The less said about Scotland the better.
  5. I can bore for Britain on the Glasgow house clearances (in fact, at least one former First Minister can attest to this) as, being poor and Glaswegian growing up, I wanted to find out why various things didn't work around us. And then as an adult, I found out these circumstances had repeated themselves all over Britain.
  6. I wonder which point @En Passant regretted asking me. I'm thinking around the first syllable. Everything is interconnected! James Burke was always spot on about this sort of thing.
  7. I'm aware of the smaller text bit. Not having a maths brain, economic theory is knackering. (Mind you, I have never sought to be Chancellor, and understand economic theory better than some who have, but that's not a good thing!) Many years ago now, I did have to read a lot of stuff on the economy of 2007-2010 in the lead up to the financial crash and the levers which prevented another Great Depression, for a project, and I came away from it with far greater respect for Gordon Brown. And considerably less respect for George Osborne. The best bit incidentally was the memoirs of Alan Greenspan, followed by the memoirs of George Soros. Greenspan somewhat whitewashed his role in events, and Soros, who wrote his book after Greenspans, takes a chapter out to trounce Greenspans version of events. Dignified, no, but rather amusing! In rough order of your podcast. Wolf is correct about the constraints of modern capitalism, which is very far from the meritocracy we are taught to believe in, but I would say that as a socialist. He's correct about the demagogues. Unfortunately, even with his recent setback (setback in the "still in power" definition of the term), Modi is a model for that sort of leader. If you focus on infrastructure, or even speak about infrastructure while achieving little of it, you can gain a huge coalition of poorer voters who will look the other way if that comes with victimising minorities, and hell, many of them might see that as a joyful bonus. Boris Johnson saw this, hence the Levelling Up talk, but managed to damage his own brand before people noticed it was all talk and no action. Donald Trump in 2020 was an odd case in which while he had spoken loudly about everything he was going to do, on popularist localism he actually ceded the ground to Joe Biden, who made great political capital out of it in the Rust Belt. (This is something Biden also did successfully in campaigning in 2012 and a reason you can't count out his ground game, even if he is 82 and slow.) People put a lot of belief into Farage as being our version of this, and he's not got the tools (he has however overachieved for his position*), but the French political establishment knew Jean Marie le Pen wasn't a real threat, and so continued sleepwalking for decades until we are at the position we are now. Worse, they conceded ground, until the difference wasn't as scary to voters. Macron's probably surrendered the French parliament for reasons that bamboozle me, dreadful politician. What France is, is a lesson to the UK and Germany, but primarily us. If Labour get into power, the Macron route leads to an empowered far right. *The late Tony Benn said of Neil Kinnock once (and I paraphrase as its been years now), "he gave up every principle to get a good headline, and instead of public appraisal, he just lost every swing voter he began with". This reminds me of the Conservative party in recent years. In terms of the post-war settlement (which is mythologised more than it was), that was ripped up by Reagonomics and Thatcher. Wolf is correct in that the rise of Donald Trump is linked to the rise of Reagan (in fact, Ronnie came up with the Make America Great Again slogan!), as the economic vulture capitalists allowed to grow unregulated in the eighties gave Trump his position of power. However, I don't think it was an inevitable Point A to Point B route. The rise of right wing demagogues was aided by the financial crash, which was aided by the consensus Reagan set up and Clinton and the Bushes followed, but this wasn't a necessary chain of cause and effect, it was a political expedience of dealing with it when you had to. We should have seen this coming, as Calvin Coolidge cut taxes and regulation and led to a vast Wall Street boom all through the 1920s, which led to a speculation disaster and the Wall Street Crash. Coolidge had the smart idea of retiring from the Presidency less than a year before, and so ahistorical politicians look at the cuts and economic boom under his reign and don't connect it to the vast bust that happened after. This also happened under Andrew Jackson, and in the 1870s. Economic history repeats. This is a lot of American economics, but in 1840, 1878, 1929 and 2007, the American system shock helped bugger up the rest of the world. Financially, a bit like the Mount Tambora explosion, which led to the UK having no summer in 1816! In terms of the "need the votes, pander to the masses, newsspeak", I dislike it too. Unfortunately, we are but two voters in a sea of thirty million, and the vast majority of them are... structurally challenged to hearing the truth. The evidence is in the last century of voting. Enough voters to swing an election will vote against their own best interests if they fear a tax rise on themselves. Even in a situation like now, certain parties might fear it could be election changing, because they have the race memory of 1992 and the Poll Tax and economic decline being forgiven. Labour in general are always fighting the last election, and what the lessons the public taught them or they think the public taught them. Hence, Harriet Harman's idiotic decision to put the whips on the abstention of the Welfare bill in 2015, the decision that directly led to the election of Jeremy Corbyn as party leader, because as interim leader, that was the lesson she took from the 2015 election. That we needed to be harsher on benefits and immigration. Now in 2024, they are still adhering to the lessons of 2019: don't promise too much, don't let anyone think you are even slightly anti-semitic, don't both sides Putin. No, hang on, the last one is easy enough. I'm actually surprised how much the Labour manifesto has snuck in (its quite similar to the Corbyn manifesto, but with most of the headline stuff removed) but yeah, they're timid because voters have taught them to be timid. And probably for the best, as even now, in this climate, for every person online I see bemoaning the lack of progressive policies spouted by Kier Starmer, I've heard scared people with actual bloody votes worried that Starmer speaks far too revolutionary for their liking. It's an annoying internet truism to say we get the politicians we vote for, but the country certain does*. *"The country needs more Alan Milburns and far less Dennis Skinners" as a ranking campaigner under Blair told me. Alan Milburn incidentally fucked off at the first bit of bother. The housing issues stem from the slum clearances. Not because the slum clearances were bad. Far from it. In clearing the slums, as political expediency, the major cities cleaned house. So they didn't get rid of the rotten stock, they got rid of everything: the good stock tenements, the town houses, the churches, the shops, the cinemas, the public loos, the community centres, everything. Vast chunks of which, had they been restored at the time (or in thousands of cases, any time in the decades leading including this Tory government), would have saved this country billions. The problems with creating the new areas like Easterhouse for example are a different topic in themselves, though adding mental health issues and a lack of anything to do to the working poor is creating a vacuum for health woes, addiction and crime. However, this is specifically about the housing numbers. The houses in Glasgow, and London and other places were replaced with high rise towers. Now, I dislike high rises for many good reasons, like the fact they were badly maintained (damp often got into the roots), and poorly policed, and they tend to look ugly as shit. But in specific housing numbers, the number of flats you can get in a high rise, with UK planning permission rules, and health and safety laws, is considerably FEWER than what you can get from tenements or flats built on the same area! In fact, in Glasgow (sorry, most of my knowledge comes from my homeland, but the same thing happened across Britain), the clearances and building of the high rises led to a DEFICIT of 100, 000 homes. A deficit which we have been fighting ever since, with increased birth rates! Governments know we need housing, but they also like to be praised by the NIMBYs of the Mail, Telegraph and so on. Meanwhile, the opposition to this (so called Lib Dem and Green councillors*) revert to NIMBYism on housing in their own area. *Don't let this dissuade anyone voting Lib Dem in a Tory/Lib Dem seat next week. I'd say the same about the Greens, but I can't think of any seat where voting Green would be of use. And I speak as someone very into renewable energy! We built huge numbers of houses in the 1890s, the 1920s and the 1950s. And not as many since. He's correct that developers and landlords gain a lot of power, but again, this is the vacuum of power. Where you leave a hole, someone finds a way to take advantage or fill that hole. Luckily, we have a lot of ground on which you could build houses, and its not the green belt. There are also things the government could do to persuade restoration of homes which exist but which are empty. For example, by removing the VAT on restoration building to make it equal with other building taxes, as the current system disencetivises doing anything to solve the crisis. (UKIP pointed this out in 2015, and lord knows I hate having to admit they were ever right about anything.) I think the government which solves this would be in power for a generation. The Tories surrendered the ground. If Labour surrender the ground in the next decade, they leave the ground open to the British Modi and can't assume they won't show up. I have to admit a blind spot on inheritance tax as it involves sums way beyond my life experience. It kicks in after the first £325k. It's a bit like George Harrison writing Taxman. The 95% rate (which was intended to make NHS prescriptions free, but the backlash led to it being abandoned) only kicked in well above the normal level of pay, so the Beatles were already richer than Croesus before those tax bands kicked in. His issue is that the people they hung out with where siphoning off every little bit of money and blaming the tax system for their philandering! (The fact that the Beatles were so shit with their money, incidentally, means its staggering to me that somehow Paul McCartney wound up with 100% of the royalties for Yesterday, one of the most ludicrously successful royalties decisions in music history. People around the Fab Four were so greedy they didn't notice the actual money tree right there in front of them.) I'm sure it sucks if you have to pay a huge tax bill when you inherit shitloads, but I'm afraid that's someone elses who is far richer than me and their problem. Unsatisfying but honest! I will say I am open to hearing about land taxing, given the amount of landbanking profiteers due in the UK, which directly leads to the housing problem mentioned above. Everything is connected! In short (err, what, msc?), I tend to agree with the general points. However, I would note that Gordon Brown spoke nothing but caution as Shadow Chancellor, yet his first act was Bank of England independence, and child poverty was all but eradicated through his time in office, as were NHS waiting times. But he also said that Labour needed a few years in office to prove they wouldn't wreck the economy (thanks to media and Tory propaganda) so they could be trusted to actually fix things. I suspect (or hope) that time period will be a lot shorter for Starmer and co, and that once the fears of not being elected are (hopefully) removed, they get on with the job we all want them to do, without an electorate to box them in. I'll be judging them on the things they do in office (should they get there) rather than the mealmouthed stuff they need to say to get elected. Blair/Brown and Wilson and MacMillan said much the same much ado about nothing and were transformative. David Cameron did the same, and was a complete and utter David Cameron. The alternative is the route to the demagogues outlined by Wolf, but so often they prove they can talk of solutions but provide none of them, and hurt the very people who need them most. So for all of that, and a few historical injustices I'm sore on (see housing above), I'm hoping Starmer realises the task ahead. Because bloody hell, to quote one former Prime Minster, there is no alternative!
  8. msc

    General Election 2024?

    So, England scrape through to the Quarterfinals, the election happens and suddenly England click like they're 1970 Brazil, 1997 Blair or a weekend with Karen Gillan, and smash the opposition. Got it.
  9. msc

    Wrestlers/actors

    Afa would have made more sense but no, he's still going and his healthier younger brother has gone after a short illness. That aside, Afa and Sika were super close all their life so it wouldn't surprise me if Afa doesn't linger now.
  10. msc

    Hollywood Survivors

    His role in Dr Who was almost a decade before Edge of Darkness and he looked ancient then too!
  11. msc

    Hollywood Survivors

    Still acting until fairly recently too.
  12. msc

    Sven-Göran Eriksson

    To be honest, if I'd shagged Katherine Jenkins, Mrs Msc would be jealous...of me.
  13. msc

    General Election 2024?

    Polls has an average 30 point Labour lead when Major called the election, down to sixteen with ten days to go and finally a thirteen point deficit on election day. Sunak was on average 22 points behind Labour when he called the election and with ten days to go he's in average 22 points behind. Believe it or not ten days out in 1997 the Guardian had a poll of it being a five point difference and splashed big on how the landslide theory was a complete myth! The Guardian, declaring the sky is falling all my life!
  14. msc

    General Election 2024?

    Its telling how bad their campaign is that I got quite far into that post before twigging it was satire!
  15. msc

    Twisted DL 2023-2024

    Former MP Dick Taverne, thanks.
  16. msc

    Statistics

    Getting close to some of the old school droughts now.
  17. msc

    Doctor Who

    Personally I think Delta and Castrovalva would send a newcomer to classic Who running away screaming in the opposite direction, but this is why I rarely respond to such queries. Best thing to do? Pick a Doctor you like the look of, and go for one of the shorter stories which sound interesting to you.
  18. msc

    Doctor Who

    One per Doctor 1. War Machines (Hartnell in fine form, moves more dynamically than most sixties stories and from experience I find folk in Fiona's position tend to find the old school historicals a bit dull.) 2. Tomb of the Cybermen (not exactly spoilt for choice due to the missing episodes elsewhere alas) 3. Green Death (it's a six parter but it's quite pacy edited and has everything that became new Who: iconic monsters, the political subtext, unit, the technology Vs humans angle and of course the Doctor/companion relationship breaking up over romance. This is the story that's inspired the entire RTD era.) 4. Horror of Fang Rock (doesn't have Sarah but is another Tom horror era classic) 5. Earthshock (80s action thriller on a BBC budget, shockingly well directed for the time with several now famous plot twists.) 6. Nothing tbh. Mindwarp because while it's loud and doesn't make sense it's shorter and does have Brian Blessed. 7. Remembrance of the Daleks (I'm a huge Greatest Show and Fenric fan but you've got to go with the classic.) My experience of people coming from the current show to classic is the last two McCoy seasons go well (as you can see the joins with the Rose seasons), the Pertwee era can be appreciated because it's where the ideas of modern Who come from, Tom is obviously Tom, and the black and white stuff has more appreciation than I'd expect. It's the Davison era folk struggle with.
  19. msc

    General Election 2024?

    Sounds like a TOTP act from 1988. "And up next with Totally Doomed, a new hit from Ross and Holden."
  20. msc

    General Election 2024?

    In a marginal, voters for a party which got 2k last time being told to vote for another anti-Tory party is probably not great news for Mr Douglas Ross.
  21. msc

    General Election 2024?

    Thing is, you know that, I know that we all know that and still... Labour have lost at least five elections in my parents lifetime because the Tories have convinced swing voters Labour will tax them. It's a precedent based on recent history that if they are at all honest before the election they don't get elected. I don't like it but I can understand it.
  22. msc

    9. Noam Chomsky

    Nonsense, Pele is going to walk out of that hospital any day now.
  23. msc

    General Election 2024?

    Sure enough. My seat says "No fucker votes for the Tories in your seat, you jammy bastard. Peace out.". Which is fair enough.
  24. 6/17/2024 54 Electric Light Orchestra - Don’t Bring Me Down 53 Gerry Rafferty - Baker Street +4 38 Donna Summer — Love’s Unkind 36 The Jam - The Eton Rifles 31 ABBA - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (A Man After Midnight) 30 Ian Dury and the Blockheads - Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3 28 Earth, Wind & Fire - September 27 The Rolling Stones - Miss You 23 The Cars - My Best Friend’s Girl 7 Frankie Valli - Grease -6 I have returned...to give old favourite Gerry a bit more protection.
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