Davey Jones' Locker 1,325 Posted March 21, 2011 Bored at work so I just did a few very crude sums... Since 1994, when DeathList moved to the current 50 picks system, we have had an average success rate of one death every 34.9388889 days (yes I remembered to factor in leap years and yes, I included the first 80 days of this year. ) So we are waiting slightly more than one month between hits. The overall hit rate from 1994-2010 is 178 deaths out of 850 names, which equals 20.94117% (or a depressing one-in-five accuracy rate). This makes sense given all those years in which the score was at or around 10 out of 50. DISCLAIMERS: 1. I am terrible at maths so don't take my results at face value. 2. There is probably a thread with stats like this already but I am too lazy to hunt for it. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,688 Posted March 21, 2011 Mr Stats, who has been around longer than almost all of us still posting does produce numerical data now and again. Though that hit rate is a new one on me, and I've been here since the tail end of 2004. It does raise an interesting point, how many individual DDP pickers and the like are going close to that hit rate on a team of 20? DDP's strike rate this year, for example, compares well with the committee selecting the DL 50. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,325 Posted March 28, 2011 With the recent spate of successes, the average delay between deaths has been lowered to a respectable 34.5934 days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Mad Hatter 1,093 Posted July 1, 2015 What would they be now Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RadGuy 1,619 Posted July 1, 2015 What would they be now Well don't expect me to calculate it... thinking makes my head hurt Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,325 Posted July 1, 2015 What would they be nowI just recalculated it for you, my good sir, and this is what I came up with: We have had 228 hits during the 21.5 years between January 1, 1994 and July 1, 2015. 228/21.5 = an average of 10.6046 deaths per year. 7851 days have passed since January 1, 1994. 7851/228 = 1 death every 34.4342 days. If we ignore the half-completed current year, we have had 1050 names on the list. There were 220 hits in this time, so 220/1050*100 = 20.9523% hit rate, or still around 10/50 per year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 6,368 Posted July 2, 2015 What would the stats say if we double the final count to 16 in December? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,325 Posted July 2, 2015 What would the stats say if we double the final count to 16 in December?It would be 236/1100*100 = 21.4545% hit rate and 236/22 = an average of 10.7272 deaths per year so both statistics say we would be hovering around the 11 deaths mark for an average year. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DevonDeathTrip 2,366 Posted July 2, 2015 Mr Stats, who has been around longer than almost all of us still posting does produce numerical data now and again. Though that hit rate is a new one on me, and I've been here since the tail end of 2004. It does raise an interesting point, how many individual DDP pickers and the like are going close to that hit rate on a team of 20? DDP's strike rate this year, for example, compares well with the committee selecting the DL 50. I crunched the numbers on my DDP teams since 2006. I've got an overall hit rate of 46% and an average age at death of...66.6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
