Deathlist correctlist 2019

[paddyfool 379]

A goal at last for those banking on Gordon!

 

Will update scores in a day or two. EDIT: from skimming the thread I think the only players to hit are En Passant and Great Uncle Bulgaria, going up two points each, but I'll double check against my spreadsheet when I'm home.

[paddyfool 379]

Updated score list.  John Key's position remains unthreatened as En Passant and Great Uncle Bulgaria draw slightly closer to their goal.

 

John Key	-7
YoungWillz	-13
theoldlady	-15
Phantom of the Midway	-15
drol	-15
Sean	-16
alt obits guy	-16
Bibliogryphon	-16
The Cosgroves	-16
Master Tech	-16
BlackLivio	-16
Zefph	-17
Grim Up North	-17
The Quim Reaper	-17
Sir Creep	-17
Banana	-17
gcreptile	-18
SuperSowder	-18
nantonian2013	-19
Joey Russ	-19
En Passant	-19
Squonk	-19
Torva Messor	-19
Dr_T	-19
Book	-20
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-20
ebless	-22
msc	-23
The Old Crem	-23
Gooseberry Crumble	-24

[paddyfool 379]

Rules addendum: tiebreakers

 

If at the end of the year, we have a tie for first place, everyone who gets the first place score should consider themselves an honorary winner, as they won under the rules as given at the time.

 

However, that being said, there should still be a final winner, and I suggest breaking the tie on these criteria:

1) Whichever team had the most hits

2) If unbroken by 1, whichever team was closest in their guess of predicted deaths for the year

3) If unbroken by 1 and 2, whichever team was submitted first.

 

Sound fair?

[paddyfool 379]

Doris Day's days are done.  Three punters called it right (Zefph, The Cosgroves, and SuperSowder), and they each go up by two points, with The Cosgroves taking 3rd and Zefph taking equal 4th.  John Key continues to look very safe in the lead for now.

 

John Key	-7
YoungWillz	-13
The Cosgroves	-14
Zefph	-15
theoldlady	-15
Phantom of the Midway	-15
drol	-15
Sean	-16
alt obits guy	-16
Bibliogryphon	-16
Master Tech	-16
BlackLivio	-16
SuperSowder	-16
Grim Up North	-17
The Quim Reaper	-17
Sir Creep	-17
Banana	-17
gcreptile	-18
nantonian2013	-19
Joey Russ	-19
En Passant	-19
Squonk	-19
Torva Messor	-19
Dr_T	-19
Book	-20
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-20
ebless	-22
msc	-23
The Old Crem	-23
Gooseberry Crumble	-24

[paddyfool 379]

What are the odds of John Key getting a (semi-inadvertent) victory, do we think?

[YoungWillz 21,034]

Well I got Hawke right.

[paddyfool 379]

Will update tonight. Some people had him as a joker, so will be going at least 4 points up (from -2 to +2). 

[gcreptile 10,966]

That gap between John Key and the rest... what a lost opportunity.

[paddyfool 379]

And suddenly with Bob Hawke's widely anticipated demise, lots of people move up the table together.  John Key still sitting pretty despite zero hits, and his score is only going to go up as we get near the inadvertently predicted total of 5 deaths for the year.

 

 

John Key	-7
YoungWillz	-11
drol	-11
BlackLivio	-12
The Quim Reaper	-13
Phantom of the Midway	-13
Sean	-14
gcreptile	-14
alt obits guy	-14
Bibliogryphon	-14
The Cosgroves	-14
Zefph	-15
Joey Russ	-15
theoldlady	-15
Sir Creep	-15
Banana	-15
Book	-16
Master Tech	-16
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-16
SuperSowder	-16
Grim Up North	-17
nantonian2013	-17
En Passant	-17
Squonk	-17
Torva Messor	-17
Dr_T	-17
ebless	-20
msc	-21
The Old Crem	-21
Gooseberry Crumble	-22

[paddyfool 379]

18 hours ago, gcreptile said:

That gap between John Key and the rest... what a lost opportunity.

 

If I was to repeat this another year (and tbh I'm not sure I will), do you think I should give teams that predict a unique number of deaths a bonus point to try and incentivise people to spread the field of predictions? Or is that just annoying and fiddly? 

[gcreptile 10,966]

34 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

 

If I was to repeat this another year (and tbh I'm not sure I will), do you think I should give teams that predict a unique number of deaths a bonus point to try and incentivise people to spread the field of predictions? Or is that just annoying and fiddly? 

I would just stick to your initial idea and keep it simple. Let the players find their room to improve.

[Grim Up North 3,725]

On ‎08‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 19:40, paddyfool said:

-1 again if you picked the "Bookie's favourite", Herman Wouk (doubled to -2 for Grim up North who was the only punter to pick Herman as his joker),

 

I think that means my score might be about to improve by 8 points??

[YoungWillz 21,034]

Many have the Wouk, I continue snapping at JK's heels...

[paddyfool 379]

Wouk's death has shaken up the list a lot.  John Key almost reaches a positive score with his first hit; Great Uncle Bulgaria and En Passant get bonuses for their 3rd hits; and Grim Up North can feel very chuffed in his choice of jokers as he leapfrogs into equal 4th place at the head of the peloton.

 

John Key	-2
YoungWillz	-5
drol	-7
Grim Up North	-9
The Quim Reaper	-9
Phantom of the Midway	-9
Sean	-10
gcreptile	-10
alt obits guy	-10
Bibliogryphon	-10
Zefph	-11
Joey Russ	-11
Sir Creep	-11
Banana	-11
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-11
En Passant	-12
Book	-12
Master Tech	-12
BlackLivio	-12
SuperSowder	-12
nantonian2013	-13
Squonk	-13
Torva Messor	-13
Dr_T	-13
The Cosgroves	-14
theoldlady	-15
ebless	-16
msc	-17
The Old Crem	-17
Gooseberry Crumble	-18

[YoungWillz 21,034]

McCririck for me, mwahahahahaha.

[paddyfool 379]

And with the death of McCririck, John Key becomes our first player out of the negatives.  Unless he makes a hit with the next death, however, he won't be staying there; and overall it's a fair bet that YoungWillz may well catch up with just one more death.

 

Torva Messor is the only player to get a joker bonus.  Lucky him, he's also one of the 11 or so punters who got their bonus for 3 hits with this one, meaning that that gets doubled as well, and he joins the front of the Peloton

 

And just so you can all keep track of your hits, I've added a column to the results table:

 

EDIT: and a column for the number of deaths predicted, because why not?  Looking at this, it's worth noting that Drol is due a 2 point bonus if and when the total gets to 6, and this may be enough to get him into the top 3, depending on who the next death is. 

 

Player	Score	Hits	Deaths predicted
John Key	0	1	5
YoungWillz	-2	3	9
The Quim Reaper	-6	3	13
gcreptile	-7	3	14
Grim Up North	-7	2	12
drol	-7	2	11
Torva Messor	-7	3	15
Zefph	-8	3	13
Sir Creep	-8	3	13
Banana	-8	3	14
Book	-9	3	16
Phantom of the Midway	-9	2	12
Sean	-10	2	12
En Passant	-10	4	17
alt obits guy	-10	2	12
Bibliogryphon	-10	2	13
Master Tech	-10	2	12
BlackLivio	-10	2	13
Joey Russ	-11	2	15
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-11	3	18
SuperSowder	-12	2	14
nantonian2013	-13	2	15
Squonk	-13	2	16
ebless	-13	3	18
Dr_T	-13	2	15
msc	-14	3	19
The Cosgroves	-14	1	13
The Old Crem	-14	3	19
theoldlady	-15	0	12
Gooseberry Crumble	-18	2	20

[YoungWillz 21,034]

Points for Cleggers who no longer plays pop.

[paddyfool 379]

I don't think I can run an update until tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure that YoungWillz should now be in the lead.

 

Are there any stats that people would particularly like with the next update? I was going to add a "points change" column, as in "points by which each player's score has changed this round".

[paddyfool 379]

And on the 6th death, ay sabenya, Johnny is scatterlinged to the wind, as was widely predicted by the punters.

 

YoungWillz takes the lead, msc hits the joker, but Drol sees the highest rise in his score as he gets within 5 of being correct on the total number of deaths and hits the third hit bonus.  En Passant remains the player with the most hits, and John Key's time at the top seems to be over and done.

 

Player	Score	Hits	Change in score
YoungWillz	0	4	2
drol	-2	3	5
John Key	-2	1	-2
Grim Up North	-4	3	3
The Quim Reaper	-4	4	2
gcreptile	-5	4	2
Torva Messor	-5	4	2
Banana	-6	4	2
Phantom of the Midway	-6	3	3
alt obits guy	-7	3	3
BlackLivio	-7	3	3
Book	-7	4	2
Master Tech	-7	3	3
Sean	-7	3	3
En Passant	-8	5	2
Joey Russ	-8	3	3
Sir Creep	-8	3	0
Zefph	-8	3	0
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-9	4	2
SuperSowder	-9	3	3
Bibliogryphon	-10	2	0
Dr_T	-10	3	3
msc	-10	4	4
nantonian2013	-10	3	3
Squonk	-10	3	3
ebless	-11	4	2
The Cosgroves	-12	2	2
The Old Crem	-12	4	2
theoldlady	-15	0	0
Gooseberry Crumble	-18	2	0

[YoungWillz 21,034]

Ah, heady days, leading a Deadpool!

 

I was (joint) top of the Inverse DP once - didn't last. I shall bathe in the warm sunlight atop the mountain for the short time I'm here.

[paddyfool 379]

19 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Ah, heady days, leading a Deadpool!

 

I was (joint) top of the Inverse DP once - didn't last. I shall bathe in the warm sunlight atop the mountain for the short time I'm here.

 

You've got a fair chance of winning as long as the total deaths add up to 10 or fewer. Any higher, though, and your chances of being in the top spot are basically negligible.

[YoungWillz 21,034]

My fifth correct prediction with Valerie Harper.

[paddyfool 379]

Away for the weekend; scores will update on Monday.

 

I think it's safe to say who'll be in the lead, though.

[paddyfool 379]

Unlucky hit number 7 for Valerie Harper.  Only 5 punters predicted it, but one of them was YoungWillz, reinforcing his lead, as he goes a mighty 2 points into the positives; incidentally, I now reckon that it's theoretically impossible for his figures to go negative again in this year's game.  The Cosgroves and Gooseberry Crumble both score their 3rd hit bonus.  A number of players who guessed a target total of 12 have increased their score by 2, as the number of deaths have got within 5 of that figure now; among them is Grim Up North, who moves into equal 2nd place in the scoreboard, catching up to drol.  Currently YoungWillz, En Passant and ebless are tied for most total hits at 5 apiece.

 

 

NB: Where scores are tied, I have not, at present, bothered to apply any tiebreaker rules in terms of the order by which names appear.  That faff can wait until the end of the year.

[paddyfool 379]

And as Robert Mugabe slips away in Singapore taking the total deaths to 8, many of our punters score points.  In addition to those predicting his death, quite a few predicting 13 hits cease to suffer a -2 penalty; Bibliogryphon has a particularly good round as he also hits his 3 hit bonus; and En Passant goes into the lead for total hits and scores a 6 hit bonus.  Meanwhile the only player to pick Bobby Mugs as their joker, theoldlady, makes their first hit with his demise and now looks less in danger of falling to bottom on the board.  While at the top of the board, YoungWillz gains a point for getting close to his estimated total of 9 deaths and remains in the lead, but Grim Up North and The Quim Reaper are gaining on him as they pull out of the negatives.

 

Player Score Hits Change in score YoungWillz 3 5 1 Grim Up North 0 4 2 The Quim Reaper 0 5 4 John Key -1 2 2 drol -2 3 0 Phantom of the Midway -2 4 2 Sir Creep -2 5 4 alt obits guy -3 4 2 gcreptile -3 5 2 Torva Messor -3 5 2 Banana -4 5 2 Bibliogryphon -5 3 5 BlackLivio -5 3 2 Book -5 5 2 En Passant -5 6 3 Master Tech -5 3 0 Sean -5 3 0 Joey Russ -6 4 2 Zefph -6 3 2 Great Uncle Bulgaria -7 5 2 SuperSowder -7 4 2 The Cosgroves -7 3 2 Dr_T -8 4 2 msc -8 5 2 ebless -9 5 0 theoldlady -9 1 4 nantonian2013 -10 3 0 Squonk -10 3 0 The Old Crem -10 5 2 Gooseberry Crumble -15 3 0