Incredible Research

[weatherman90 7]

Many of you are aware of the 'Recent Deaths' page on Wikipedia. It is a useful tool, with deaths listed for each day of the year. I thought it would be interesting to use this information to find which days and or times of year are the most deadliest for well-known people. To go about this, I made a database of each day in 2005 and filled in the number of deaths that occured. The results were very interesting.

 

The raw numbers for each month of 2005 are on the chart below. The X axis represents the months of 2005 from 1-12 and the Y axis represents the number of deaths:

 

 

I say raw because there is an un-evenness caused by unequal days in each month. The next chart shows the deaths by month with the missing days filled in with the average number of deaths per day of that month. For example, February's missing 29-31 were filled in with 6 for each day - the average number of deaths per day of that month. The same was done for all the other months that don't have a 31. Note only slight changes, but a noticable change for February as it now has a fair 31 days.

 

 

As you can clearly see, Winter Kills! The coldest four months of the year north of the equator (Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb) total 914 deaths. The warmest four months of the year (May, June, July, Aug) total a mere 647 deaths. The exact numbers for each month starting with January are 217, 190, 181, 190, 133, 133, 166, 215, 203, 277, 250, 257. We are now in the middle of the deadliest month - October. The least deadly months are May and June with 133 - less than half the deaths of October. While it would seem strange that cold weather could have such an effect - what other conclusions are there to draw?

 

The next graph shows the deaths per day of the month. For this graph, the months have been evened out to have 31 days as explained above. The days are plotted at the bottom (1-31), and the deaths are plotted at the left.

 

 

I can't seem to draw any conclusion from this as expected, except that the deadliest day is the 10th of each month, totaling 92 deaths. The least deadly day is the 24th with a mere 60. Draw your own conclusions here.

 

In summary, hospitals need to employ some more personel in the winter months.

[CarolAnn 926]

Interesting for the past 12 months, yes....however, I would want to see data going back several years, and with any appropriate modifiers applied, before I could draw any kind of conclusion on trends.

 

I guess my profession is showing....

[Octopus of Odstock 2,215]

In summary, hospitals need to employ some more personel in the winter months.

 

 

I think anyone could've told you that BEFORE you started your research, saving you much time & effort.

[maryportfuncity 10,684]

It's not as cut and dried as many think though Octi, a local obits correspondent told me that the thing about a much higher number in winter is a rough rule at best. Mega hard winter or very hot summer yes, mild years and you might get more deaths in April.

 

Makes encouraging reading that graph mind, what with the final months coming.

[Dr Hackenslash 25]

It's not as cut and dried as many think though Octi, a local obits correspondent told me that the thing about a much higher number in winter is a rough rule at best. Mega hard winter or very hot summer yes, mild years and you might get more deaths in April.

 

Makes encouraging reading that graph mind, what with the final months coming.

 

And added to that, are the sort of people of the list (in general) going to have to worry about financing their winter fuel bills?

 

I've also noticed in the past that while the cold can hospitalise the elderly, they don't normalyl die for a few weeks/months afterwards.

[Octopus of Odstock 2,215]

It's not as cut and dried as many think though Octi, a local obits correspondent told me that the thing about a much higher number in winter is a rough rule at best. Mega hard winter or very hot summer yes, mild years and you might get more deaths in April.

 

More people are ill in the winter than the summer, whether they snuff it or not.

 

So, the statement that hospitals need more staff in the winter is a no-brainer, MPFC.

 

 

It's interesting research, but I'm not sure how useful it is.

[Josco 49]

In summary, hospitals need to employ some more personel in the winter months.

 

Good effort, but poor spelling.

[The Pooka 26]

Interesting for the past 12 months, yes....however, I would want to see data going back several years, and with any appropriate modifiers applied, before I could draw any kind of conclusion on trends.

 

I guess my profession is showing....

Agreed CA. If the 10th were consistently the highest over 10-20 years it gets interesting.

[weatherman90 7]

I was thinking the same thing. Except that the Recent deaths page really wasn't well organized pre-2005, so anything before '05 would be innacurate. I already am starting on the 2006 statistics and it will be interesting to see if October holds up as the deadliest month.

 

Hopefully these statistics will work in favor of the deathlist for the rest of 2006.

 

One more interesting bit of info that I forgot to point out. It was a tie for the deadliest day in 2005 at 14. The two days were September 18 and October 18.

[themaninblack 2,112]

One thing I've noticed from the previous deathlists is that there

does seem to be some sort of pattern in positive hits.

There seems to be relatively few hits towards the end of the year

and it seems that between March and September are particularly fruitful months...

[honez 79]

Many of you are aware of the 'Recent Deaths' page on Wikipedia. [snip]

I can't seem to draw any conclusion from this as expected, except that the deadliest day is the 10th of each month, totaling 92 deaths. The least deadly day is the 24th with a mere 60. Draw your own conclusions here.

Good work weatherman90.

But have you done any data-mining around what day of the week is de rigeur?

How close their deathday was to their birthday?

Whether there is any statistical correlation between age at death and the outside temp at their place of death.

Give us some statistical anomalies we can get our teeth into.

 

Telling us more people die when it's cold is hardly Earth-shattering.

 

I want to know, for example, that if you're over 80, left-handed and live on the Eastern seaboard of the US, there is a .7 probability that you will die on a Sunday afternoon between Nov-1 and Dec-17, trying to read the small-print on a broadsheet on the crapper. That kind of info I can use.

 

Now, get to it.

[maryportfuncity 10,684]

One thing I've noticed from the previous deathlists is that there

does seem to be some sort of pattern in positive hits.

There seems to be relatively few hits towards the end of the year

and it seems that between March and September are particularly fruitful months...

 

That has a lot to do with the fact we can get news of serious illness at the end of one year and watch the sufferers fall in the next. In a normal year many of them are dead and gone by September.

[Grim Reaper 186]

Hopefully these statistics will work in favor of the deathlist for the rest of 2006.

 

Two other factors that need to be considered:

 

The DL has less and less people on it as the year progresses so it should be slightly less likely to get hits later in the year however...

 

People chosen in December for their likelihood to die in the next year that are still alive late in that year should generally have a slightly higher chance of dying as they are a bit older or are maybe more ill

 

So, in conclusion, I reckon these all these factors cancel each other out and the distribution of successes throughout a year can therefore be considered to be pretty much random.

 

GR

[Death Watch Beatle 41]

 

Hopefully these statistics will work in favor of the deathlist for the rest of 2006.

 

Two other factors that need to be considered:

 

The DL has less and less people on it as the year progresses so it should be slightly less likely to get hits later in the year however...

 

People chosen in December for their likelihood to die in the next year that are still alive late in that year should generally have a slightly higher chance of dying as they are a bit older or are maybe more ill

 

So, in conclusion, I reckon these all these factors cancel each other out and the distribution of successes throughout a year can therefore be considered to be pretty much random.

 

GR

 

Spoilsport

 

DWB

[Banshees Scream 110]

So, in conclusion, I reckon these all these factors cancel each other out and the distribution of successes throughout a year can therefore be considered to be pretty much random.

 

GR

 

Well said Grim Reaper. Death is just like anything else.

[weatherman90 7]

I agree. Now looking over the 2006 data, it is almost impossible to use in research due to the fact that Wikipedia experienced massive growth in 2006 - more users means more users reporting more odd deaths. The numbers are double that of 2005 in most areas and increasing as the year went on. I definately agree with GR as far as the early hits in the year. The celebs most likely to die during a given year are selected due to their disease. If they haven't died by the end of the summer - chances are they are over their illness and just waiting for the next one to strike.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,366]

You are most likely to suffer a fatal heart attack between the hours of 8 and 9am. Don't know if this helps at all....

[honez 79]

You are most likely to suffer a fatal heart attack between the hours of 8 and 9am. Don't know if this helps at all....

Who? Me?

[Typhoid Harry 23]

My heart wouldn't dare attack me. Besides, a gypsy in Budapest told me years ago that I would die in the arms of a beautiful woman half my age by the hand of her jealous husband. What a way to go; I like it, still.

[Guest Hangman88]

My heart wouldn't dare attack me. Besides, a gypsy in Budapest told me years ago that I would die in the arms of a beautiful woman half my age by the hand of her jealous husband. What a way to go; I like it, still.

She also told you that you were both smart and handsome which just adds to her list of lies.