maryportfuncity 10,646 Posted January 25, 2011 So did the entries close last night, or is it midnight tonight?...looking forward to show and tell, like. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,525 Posted January 25, 2011 Midnight tonight GMT, 16 entries so far. I'll probably shoot them all up asap after the deadline, haven't been sleeping well recently, letting you all know how popular a pick Harry Morgan is might help. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lady Grendel 139 Posted January 25, 2011 Just sent mine in. I included all the names from your list that are already in my DDP team, so I'll get points there if they die and benefit here if they don't, a win-win situation . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,525 Posted January 26, 2011 Entries are now.... CLOSED. Teams to come. One player needs to send me one correction but I'll give him a few hours. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,525 Posted January 26, 2011 THE STARTING SQUADS Life, Oh Life [via Des'Ree] (Spade_Cooley) 1. Lohan, Lindsay 2. Forsyth, Bruce 3. Gascoigne, Paul 4. Ballesteros, Seve 5. Hawking, Stephen 6. Baker, Danny 7. Cheney, Dick 8. Ali, Muhammad 9. Moore, Patrick 10. Norden, Denis 11. Philip, Prince 12. Castro, Fidel 13. Mugabe, Robert 14. Douglas, Michael 15. Dunn, Clive 16. Franklin, Aretha 17. Sykes, Eric 18. Jong-Il, Kim 19. Dawn, Liz 20. Al Megrahi, Abdelbaset 21. Biggs, Ronnie 22. Falk, Peter 23. Borgnine, Ernest 24. Reagan, Nancy 25. Attenborough, Richard Might Come to Maryport in 2012 (maryportfuncity) 1. Prince Philip 2. Bruce Forsythe 3. Mickey Roony 4. Nelson Mandela 5. Lindsey Lohan 6. Seve Ballesteros 7. Vera Lynn 8. Eric Sykes 9. Robert Mugabe 10. Dickie Attenborough 11. Clive Dunn 12. Ernest Borgnine 13. Muhammad Ali 14. Patrick Moore 15. Dennis Healy 16. Abdelbaset Al Megrahi 17. Michael Douglas 18. Fidel Castro 19. Paul Gascoigne 20. Dennis Norden 21. Eli Wallach 22. Stephen Hawking 23. Olivia de Havilland 24. Kim Jong-Il 25. Danny Baker heaven can wait 1. Muhammad Ali 2. Danny Baker 3. Seve Ballesteros 4. Kirk Douglas 5. Prince Phillip 6. Dennis Norden 7. Eric Sykes 8. Eli Wallach 9. Harry Morgan 10. Penny Marshal 11. Bruce Forsythe 12. Peter Falk 13. Paul Gascoigne 14. Dennis Healey 15. Jack Klugman 16. Vera Lynn 17. Lindsay Lohan 18. Nancy Reagan 19. Mickey Rooney 20. Aretha Franklyn 21. Michael Douglas 22. Olivia de Haviland 23. Clive Dunn 24. Robert Mugabe 25. Donald Neilson BertTrautman 1. Seve Ballesteros 2. Michael Douglas 3. Danny Baker 4. Lindsay Lohan 5. Penny Marshall 6. Paul Gascoigne 7. Bruce Forsyth 8. Vera Lynn 9. Muhammad Ali 10. Prince Philip 11. Mickey Rooney 12. Aretha Franklin 13. Richard Attenborough 14. Denis Norden 15. Fidel Castro 16. Nelson Mandela 17. Robert Mugabe 18. Clive Dunn 19. Olivia de Havilland 20. Eli Wallach 21. Liz Dawn 22. Eric Sykes 23. Geoffrey Hughes 24. Dick Cheney 25. Stephen Hawking Mr. 3374 1. Seve Ballesteros 2. Dick Cheney 3. Paul Gascoigne 4. Prince Phillip 5. Billy Graham 6. Danny Baker 7. Abdelbaset Al Megrahi 8. Clive Dunn 9. Jack Klugman 10. Peter Falk 11. Lindsay Lohan 12. Margaret Thatcher 13. Penny Marshall 14. Denis Healey 15. Geoffrey Hughes 16. Ariel Sharon 17. Bruce Forsyth 18. Aretha Franklin 19. Ernest Borgnine 20. Robert Mugabe 21. Denis Norden 22. Stephen Hawking 23. Eli Wallach 24. Oscar Niemeyer 25. Kim Jong Il STAB_in-the_DARK (Rotten Ali) 1. Clive Dunn 2. Dame Vera Lynn 3. Eli Wallach 4. Bruce Forsyth 5. Mickey Rooney 6. Eric Sykes 7. Liz Dawn 8. Anna Wing 9. Olivia de Haviland 10. Donald Neilson 11. Prince Phillip 12. Ernest Borgnine 13. Paul Gascoigne 14. Harry Morgan 15. Lindsay Lohan 16. Denis Norden 17. Muhammad Ali 18. Jack Klugman 19. Fidel Castro 20. Denis Healey 21. Nancy Reagan 22. Richard Attenborough 23. Jerry Lewis 24. Peter Falk 25. Danny Baker Garn2 1. Ali, Muhammad 2. Forsyth, Bruce 3. Dunn, Clive 4. Lohan, Lindsay 5. Dawn, Liz 6. de Havilland, Olivia 7. Borgnine, Ernest 8. Hawking, Stephen 9. Rooney, Mickey 10. Wallach, Eli 11. Gascoigne, Paul 12. Lynn, Vera 13. Klugman, Jack 14. Philip, Prince 15. Moore, Patrick 16. Sykes, Eric 17. Morgan, Harry 18. Douglas, Kirk 19. Healey, Denis 20. Ford, Betty 21. Lewis, Jerry 22. Baker, Danny 23. Reagan, Nancy 24. Graham, Rev Billy 25. Douglas, Michael Captain Chorizo 1.Lindsay Lohan 2.Michael Douglas 3.Paul Gascoigne 4.Kim Jong-Il 5.Seve Ballesteros 6.Muhammad Ali 7.Mickey Rooney 8.Nelson Mandela 9.Fidel Castro 10.Bruce Forsyth 11.Prince Phillip 12.Richard Attenborough 13.Elizabeth Taylor 14.Jerry Lewis 15.Margaret Thatcher 16.Stephen Hawking 17.Eli Wallach 16.Nancy Reagan 19.Olivia de Havilland 20.Denis Norden 21.Eric Sykes 22.Vera Lynn 23.Geoffery Hughes 24.Robert Mugabe 25.Danny Baker Six 1. Stephen Hawking 2. Donald Nielson 3. Liz Taylor 4. Lindsay Lohan 5. Zsa Zsa Gabor 6. Mickey Rooney 7. Jack Klugman 8. Paul Gascoigne 9. Kim Jong-Il 10. Peter Falk 11. Bruce Forsythe 12. Danny Baker 13. Richard Attenbrough 14. Liz Dawn 15. Clive Dunn 16. Penny Marshall 17. Ariel Sharon 18. Dennis Norden 19. Eric Sykes 20. Margaret Thatcher 21. Patrick Moore 22. Aretha Franklin 23. Nelson Mandela 24. Muhammad Ali 25. Seve Ballesteros msc 1. Lindsay Lohan 2. Paul Gascoigne 3. Seve Ballesteros 4. Danny Baker 5. Muhammad Ali 6. Clive Dunn 7. Margaret Thatcher 8. Ronnie Biggs 9. Fidel Castro 10. Elizabeth Taylor 11. Ariel Sharon 12. Stephen Hawking 13. Bruce Forsyth 14. Dick Cheney 15. Robert Mugabe 16. Prince Philip 17. Eric Sykes 18. Al Megrahi 19. Nelson Mandela 20. Vera Lynn 21. Aretha Franklin 22. Jerry Lewis 23. Denis Norden 24. Patrick Moore 25. Peter Falk EST.1993 1. Lindsay Lohan 2. Elizabeth Taylor 3. Nelson Mandela 4. Stephen Hawking 5. Paul Gascoigne 6. Margaret Thatcher 7. Nancy Reagan 8. Jack Klugman 9. Ronnie Biggs 10. Seve Ballesteros 11. Richard Attenborough 12. Penny Marshall 13. Denis Norden 14. Eric Sykes 15. Eli Wallach 16. Rev Billy Graham 17. Clive Dunn 18. Muhammad Ali 19. Abdelbaset Al Megrahi 20. Aretha Franklin 21. Michael Douglas 22. Dick Cheney 23. Olivia de Havilland 24. Anna Wing 25. Oscar Niemeyer CarolAnn 1. Lindsay Lohan 2. Abdelbaset Al Megrahi 3. Penny Marshall 4. Jack Klugman 5. Richard Attenborough 6. Seve Ballesteros 7. Jerry Lewis 8. Muhammad Ali 9. Ernest Borgnine 10. Prince Philip 11. Fidel Castro 12. Danny Baker 13. Michael Douglas 14. Bruce Forsyth 15. Aretha Franklin 16. Paul Gascoigne 17. Mickey Rooney 18. Yitzhak Shamir 19. Harry Morgan 20. Elizabeth Taylor 21. Nancy Reagan 22. Vera Lynn 23. Rev Billy Graham 24. Clive Dunn 25. Olivia de Havilland 25 To Stay Alive (Toast) 1. Norden, Denis 2. Castro, Fidel 3. Ballesteros, Seve 4. Moore, Patrick 5. Borgnine, Ernest 6. Rooney, Mickey 7. Douglas, Michael 8. Marshall, Penny 9. Klugman, Jack 10. Gascoigne, Paul 11. Mugabe, Robert 12. Baker, Danny 13. Reagan, Nancy 14. Lynn, Vera 15. Forsyth, Bruce 16. Dawn, Liz 17. Lewis, Jerry 18. Shamir, Yitzhak 19. Hawking, Stephen 20. Dunn, Clive 21. Lohan, Lindsay 22. Ali, Muhammad 23. Healey, Denis 24. Sykes, Eric 25. Philip, Prince No Rest for the Wicked (Madame Defarge) 1. Lohan, Lindsay 2. Douglas, Michael 3. Rooney, Mickey 4. Mugabe, Robert 5. Falk, Peter 6. Taylor, Elizabeth 7. Sykes, Eric 8. Al Megrahi, Adelbaset 9. Hawking, Steven 10.Nordin, Denis 11.Mohammed, Ali 12.Castro, Fidel 13.Lewis, Jerry 14.Dunn, Clive 15.Moore, Patrick 16.Dawn, Liz 17.Forsythe, Bruce 18.Sharon, Ariel 19.Niemeyer,Oscar 20.Klugman, Jack 21.Graham, Billy 22.Lynn, Vera 23.Mandela, Nelson 24.Gascoigne, Paul 25.Hughes, Geoffrey time 1. Ballesteros, Seve 2. Dawn, Liz 3. Douglas, Michael 4. Forsyth, Bruce 5. Franklin, Aretha 6. Gascoigne, Paul 7. Hawking, Stephen 8. Lohan, Lindsay 9. Marshall, Penny 10. Norden, Denis 11. Philip, Prince 12. Sykes, Eric 13. Reagan, Nancy 14. Moore, Patrick 15. Morgan, Harry 16. Lynn, Vera 17. Lewis, Jerry 18. Castro, Fidel 19. Borgnine, Ernest 20. Baker, Danny 21. Al Megrahi, Abdelbaset 22. Ali, Muhammad 23. Dunn, Clive 24. Hughes, Geoffrey 25. Neilson, Donald Lady Grendel 1. Gascoigne, Paul 2. Philip, Prince 3. Lohan, Lindsay 4. Ballesteros, Seve 5. Sykes, Eric 6. Dawn, Liz 7. Ali, Muhammad 8. Hawking, Stephen 9. Neilson, Donald 10. Baker, Danny 11. Castro, Fidel 12. Dunn, Clive 13. Morgan, Harry 14. Reagan, Nancy 15. Taylor, Elizabeth 16. Jong-Il, Kim 17. Mandela, Nelson 18. De Haviland, Olivia 19. Marshall, Penny 20. Thatcher, Margaret 21. Cheney, Dick 22. Franklin, Aretha 23. Douglas, Michael 24. Al Megrahi, Abdelbaset 25. Gabor, Zsa Zsa DevonDeathTrip 1. Lohan, Lindsay 2. Gascoigne, Paul 3. Dawn, Liz 4. Forsyth, Bruce 5. Falk, Peter 6. Ali, Muhammad 7. Klugman, Jack 8. Sykes, Eric 9. Douglas, Kirk 10. Lewis, Jerry 11. Moore, Patrick 12. Wallach, Eli 13. Taylor, Elizabeth 14. Hawking, Stephen 15. Philip, Prince 16. Lynn, Vera 17. Cheney, Dick 18. Norden, Denis 19. Jong-Il, Kim 20. Ballesteros, Seve 21. Dunn, Clive 22. Baker, Danny 23. Attenborough, Richard 24. Ford, Betty 25. Douglas, Michael I'm gonna try and get these names all uniform over the next day or two, but notice how every entry is now in the same numerical style with the numbers, full stop and space? Did that myself. That's years of sub-editing coming into play there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,525 Posted January 26, 2011 THE SCIENCE Unsurprisingly, the two celebrities who are neither battling cancer nor over 80 were picked on every ballot: La Lohan and Gazza. Four celebs weren't picked at all: the three "famous for being old" cats (Breuning, Choules and Sanborn) and the big man Chrissie Hitchens, who our board thinks will be able to tell Mother Teresa exactly what he thinks of her to her face asap. I bashed the numbers into the spreadsheet, and these are, in reverse order, the top 15 most likely to die this year, according to the Deathlist panel: 15. Neilson, Donald 14. Graham, Rev Billy 13. Sharon, Ariel 12. Hughes, Geoffrey 11. Biggs, Ronnie 10. Douglas, Kirk 9. Niemeyer, Oscar 8. Gabor, Zsa Zsa 7. Wing, Anna 6. Shamir, Yitzhak 5. Ford, Betty 1=. Breuning, Walter 1=. Choules, "Digger" Claude 1=. Hitchens, Christopher 1=.Sanborn, Eunice And, to flip that the 15 most likely to throw up in a plant pot just after Big Ben rings in 2012: 1. Lohan, Lindsay 2. Gascoigne, Paul 3. Ballesteros, Seve 4. Forsyth, Bruce 5. Ali, Muhammad 6. Philip, Prince 7. Dunn, Clive 8. Sykes, Eric 9. Baker, Danny 10. Douglas, Michael 11. Norden, Denis 12. Hawking, Stephen 13. Rooney, Mickey 14. Castro, Fidel 15. Lynn, Vera Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 26, 2011 Come on DDT - bending the rules on this one! I notice that the only two names of the above top 15 names you don't have in your team are Castro & Rooney. Spade, if DDT choses them, do we all get the option to re-fill any two of our own daft picks? Now seeing how every one else has played their hand I could now think twice about having Wing and Neilson on my squad. Anyway DDT, I challenge you to move them all up and chose any who aren't Castro & Rooney in your last two places! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,646 Posted January 26, 2011 Ooh, luvverly, show and tell. 1 – Prince Philip 2 – Bruce Forsythe 3 – Mickey Roony 4 – Nelson Mandela 5 – Lindsey Lohan 6 – Seve Ballesteros 7 – Vera Lynn 8 - Eric Sykes 9 – Robert Mugabe 10- Dickie Attenborough 11- Clive Dunn 12- Ernest Borgnine 13 – Muhammad Ali 14 – Patrick Moore 15 – Dennis Healy 16 – Abdelbaset Al Megrahi 17 – Michael Douglas 18 – Fidel Castro 19 – Paul Gascoigne 20 – Dennis Norden 21 – Eli Wallach 22 – Stephen Hawking 23 – Olivia de Havilland 24 – Kim Jong-Il 25 – Danny Baker Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 26, 2011 Come on Maryport - no need for that double spacing - also since Spade has posted all the teams on post number 30 on page two there looks to be little need to post it yet again. OH AND TELL ME IF I'M MOANING TOO MUCH!!! 'CUS HERE IS ANOTHER MOAN - YOUR TEAM LOOKS BETTER THAN MINE!!! AS DOES SPADE'S... AND LG'S... AND DDT'S... AND HCW'S... AND BERT'S... AND... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,525 Posted January 26, 2011 DDT picked Eli Wallach twice, so one of his ???s, presumably #12, is The Ugly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 26, 2011 I've mashed together in two speadsheets each team's ordered picks (If the said person were someones first choice then 25pts would have been entered by their name, 2nd choice = 24pts etc etc - if not selected then no score would have been left) - totalled them (Lohan, got most points, 343 at this stage) re-assigned values against each team's list (and multiplied the valve of negative points at risk by this name's outstanding populatity) totalled the list agregates, ordered them and also built a "Considered Opinion" list (below): Would this mathmatical average entry win? It's all luck at the end of the year - only time will tell! 343 Lohan, Lindsay ( 343 x 25 = 8,575 ) 297 Gascoigne, Paul ( 297 x 24 = 7,128 ) 272 Ballesteros, Seve ( ditto ) 257 Forsyth, Bruce ( ditto ) 238 Ali, Muhammad 218 Philip, Prince 192 Hawking, Stephen 187 Sykes, Eric 185 Dunn, Clive 184 Baker, Danny 174 Rooney, Mickey 164 Norden, Denis 163 Douglas, Michael 151 Dawn, Liz 150 Klugman, Jack 150 Castro, Fidel 139 Marshall, Penny 135 Lynn, Vera 126 Taylor, Elizabeth 107 Moore, Patrick 105 Wallach, Eli 102 Borgnine, Ernest 100 Attenborough, Richard 99 al-Megrahi, Abdelbaset ( 99 x 2 = 198) 97 Mugabe, Robert (97 x 1 = 97 ) That "team" would have a "combined value" of 67,444 "predictable risk exposure". That's a funny figure, but the higher it is, shows how "risk averse" your sellections have been, higher the value the better you have been at lowering your perceived risk (all things being relative). Now as I understand it, the actual scores will be in minus value and the winner will be the one closest to zero. I can see a case, that there will be joint winners still on zero at the end of the year. How cool would that be? Anyway I've looked at each team's "predictable risk" in turn and starting favorites to win look like this: 61,966 Spade Cooley 61,298 Bert Trautman 58,799 Time 58,535 LG 58,122 Captain Chorizo 57,797 msc 57,216 Maryport 57,033 DDT 55,577 Garn2 54,658 CarolAnn 54,458 HCW 52,769 Toast 51,371 Madame Defarge 50,727 EST.1993 49,804 Six 49,673 RA 49,628 Mr3374 PS 28/01/11 revised a load of these figures because of errors in my workings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 26, 2011 DDT picked Eli Wallach twice, so one of his ???s, presumably #12, is The Ugly. Oh - so DDT put Eli Wallach in 12th place & again in 23rd! - Then he better have Wallach in 17th place between Cheney and Norden moving 13th to 12th etc. And 24th to 23rd. And 25th to 24th. Making way for his choice of a new 25th place pick. Oh and I would suggest it be Rooney - 'cus it makes very little difference to those silly numbers above. Oh - and best to do it before someone dies! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DevonDeathTrip 2,358 Posted January 26, 2011 DDT picked Eli Wallach twice, so one of his ???s, presumably #12, is The Ugly. Indeed. I selected my team at the last minute and, discombobulated as I found myself at that moment in time, picked old Eli twice. I have vague memories of sending you a correction by PM last night, Spade? I've mashed together in two speadsheets each team's ordered picks (If the said person were someones first choice then 25pts would have been entered by their name, 2nd choice = 24pts etc etc - if not selected then no score would have been left) - totalled them (Lohan, got most points, 248 at this stage) re-assigned values against each team's list (and multiplied the valve of negative points at risk by this name's outstanding populatity) totalled the list agregates, ordered them and also built a "Considered Opinion" list (below): Would this mathmatical average entry win? It's all luck at the end of the year - only time will tell! 248 Lohan, Lindsay ( 248 x 25 = 6,200 ) 226 Forsyth, Bruce ( 226 x 24 = 5,424 ) 221 Gascoigne, Paul ( ditto ) 190 Ballesteros, Seve ( ditto ) 176 Ali, Muhammad 163 Philip, Prince 153 Dunn, Clive 152 Rooney, Mickey 152 Hawking, Stephen 150 Sykes, Eric 140 Norden, Denis 132 Baker, Danny 126 Dawn, Liz 120 Douglas, Michael 114 Lynn, Vera 110 Castro, Fidel 110 Klugman, Jack 107 Moore, Patrick 95 Falk, Peter 88 Mugabe, Robert 86 Taylor, Elizabeth 85 Borgnine, Ernest 74 Wallach, Eli 74 Marshall, Penny ( 74 x 2 = 148 ) 66 al-Megrahi, Abdelbaset ( 66 x 1 = 66 ) That "team" would have a "combined value" of 52,095 "predictable risk exposure". That's a funny figure, but the higher it is, shows how "risk averse" your sellections have been, higher the value the better you have been at lowering your perceived risk (all things being relative). Now as I understand it, the actual scores will be in minus value and the winner will be the one closest to zero. I can see a case, that there will be joint winners still on zero at the end of the year. How cool would that be? Anyway I've looked at each team's "predictable risk" in turn and starting favorites to win look like this: 47,967 Spade Cooley 45,502 Bert Trautman 45,403 Maryport 44,569 Time 44,517 Garn2 44,379 DDT 43,434 msc 43,278 Captain Chorizo 43,233 LG 41,466 HCW 40,910 Toast 40,772 Madame Defarge 39,435 RA 39,306 CarolAnn 38,394 Six 37,401 Mr3374 35,966 EST.1993 DDT picked Eli Wallach twice, so one of his ???s, presumably #12, is The Ugly. Oh - so DDT put Eli Wallach in 12th place & again in 23rd! - Then he better have Wallach in 17th place between Cheney and Norden moving 13th to 12th etc. And 24th to 23rd. And 25th to 24th. Making way for his choice of a new 25th place pick. Oh and I would suggest it be Rooney - 'cus it makes very little difference to those silly numbers above. Making DDT's value 44,296. (if Castro = 44,255) (if Mugabe = 44,234) (if Marshall = 44,220) (if al-Megrahi = 44,212) etc etc etc. Oh - and best to do it before someone dies! RA, could you run that all by me one more time? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,525 Posted January 26, 2011 You did, and you sent it before the teams were posted up. If Rotten Ali requires a screengrab of the correct time, I can provide. For some reason my thing said "0 new messages" throughout today. #23 on DDT's team is Dickie "Richard" Attenborough. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 26, 2011 You did, and you sent it before the teams were posted up. If Rotten Ali requires a screengrab of the correct time, I can provide. For some reason my thing said "0 new messages" throughout today. #23 on DDT's team is Dickie "Richard" Attenborough. No - that's fine and dandy with me - I'll run those minor numbers again. p.s. I make DDT's team now to have a perceived risk value of 43,950. (still looking like 6th place) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 26, 2011 RA, could you run that all by me one more time? Maths - risk vs rewards - it's what got us into this mess in the first place. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr.3374 1 Posted January 26, 2011 I've mashed together in two speadsheets each team's ordered picks (If the said person were someones first choice then 25pts would have been entered by their name, 2nd choice = 24pts etc etc - if not selected then no score would have been left) - totalled them (Lohan, got most points, 248 at this stage) re-assigned values against each team's list (and multiplied the valve of negative points at risk by this name's outstanding populatity) totalled the list agregates, ordered them and also built a "Considered Opinion" list (below): Would this mathmatical average entry win? It's all luck at the end of the year - only time will tell! 248 Lohan, Lindsay ( 248 x 25 = 6,200 ) 226 Forsyth, Bruce ( 226 x 24 = 5,424 ) 221 Gascoigne, Paul ( ditto ) 190 Ballesteros, Seve ( ditto ) 176 Ali, Muhammad 163 Philip, Prince 153 Dunn, Clive 152 Rooney, Mickey 152 Hawking, Stephen 150 Sykes, Eric 140 Norden, Denis 132 Baker, Danny 126 Dawn, Liz 120 Douglas, Michael 114 Lynn, Vera 110 Castro, Fidel 110 Klugman, Jack 107 Moore, Patrick 95 Falk, Peter 88 Mugabe, Robert 86 Taylor, Elizabeth 85 Borgnine, Ernest 74 Wallach, Eli 74 Marshall, Penny ( 74 x 2 = 148 ) 66 al-Megrahi, Abdelbaset ( 66 x 1 = 66 ) That "team" would have a "combined value" of 52,095 "predictable risk exposure". That's a funny figure, but the higher it is, shows how "risk averse" your sellections have been, higher the value the better you have been at lowering your perceived risk (all things being relative). Now as I understand it, the actual scores will be in minus value and the winner will be the one closest to zero. I can see a case, that there will be joint winners still on zero at the end of the year. How cool would that be? Anyway I've looked at each team's "predictable risk" in turn and starting favorites to win look like this: 47,967 Spade Cooley 45,502 Bert Trautman 45,403 Maryport 44,569 Time 44,517 Garn2 44,379 DDT 43,434 msc 43,278 Captain Chorizo 43,233 LG 41,466 HCW 40,910 Toast 40,772 Madame Defarge 39,435 RA 39,306 CarolAnn 38,394 Six 37,401 Mr3374 35,966 EST.1993 Erm, all well and good, but where were you when they wanted to stop Skylab falling out of orbit? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spade_Cooley 9,525 Posted January 26, 2011 Deadpooling is a bit like the glory days of poker in the 70s and 80s, huh? A constant battle for supremacy between the mathematicians and the impulse players. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Estuarian Float 97 Posted January 26, 2011 Anyway I've looked at each team's "predictable risk" in turn and starting favorites to win look like this: 47,967 Spade Cooley 45,502 Bert Trautman 45,403 Maryport 44,569 Time 44,517 Garn2 44,379 DDT 43,434 msc 43,278 Captain Chorizo 43,233 LG 41,466 HCW 40,910 Toast 40,772 Madame Defarge 39,435 RA 39,306 CarolAnn 38,394 Six 37,401 Mr3374 35,966 EST.1993 Ok... so this is bad...? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,646 Posted January 27, 2011 THIS is a prediction Est 1993, there's a whole lotta livin' and dyin' to be done before this one resolves itself. Ali is a legend and very often right, but planes crash, people fall over and a lot of other random events intervene. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 27, 2011 Anyway I've looked at each team's "predictable risk" in turn and starting favorites to win look like this: 47,967 Spade Cooley 45,502 Bert Trautman 45,403 Maryport 44,569 Time 44,517 Garn2 44,379 DDT 43,434 msc 43,278 Captain Chorizo 43,233 LG 41,466 HCW 40,910 Toast 40,772 Madame Defarge 39,435 RA 39,306 CarolAnn 38,394 Six 37,401 Mr3374 35,966 EST.1993 Ok... so this is bad...? Well like Maryport said - a lot can happen in the course of a year. It's not like your list is the worst - just that doing a few sums now after the selections are cast in stone it just looks like you could have chosen a different order to protect your risks a little better. Below I've re-used all your list and put them in an order that could give you a perceived risk score of 58,229. But your list order could still be better than this by a country mile! It's just good or poor luck at the end of the day. Like, I'm sure Jack Nicklaus said "it's all luck, but the more I practice the luckier I seem to get" 1. Lindsay Lohan 5. Paul Gascoigne 10. Seve Ballesteros 18. Muhammad Ali 4. Stephen Hawking 14. Eric Sykes 17. Clive Dunn 13. Denis Norden 21. Michael Douglas 8. Jack Klugman 12. Penny Marshall 2. Elizabeth Taylor 15. Eli Wallach 11. Richard Attenborough 19. Abdelbaset Al Megrahi 3. Nelson Mandela 20. Aretha Franklin 7. Nancy Reagan 6. Margaret Thatcher 22. Dick Cheney 23. Olivia de Havilland 16. Rev Billy Graham 9. Ronnie Biggs 24. Anna Wing 25. Oscar Niemeyer Then you get into a rule of thumb situation. Would a team with a greater perceived disadvantage of more than 10% be able to win this competition? I guess not, and that puts any of the top 8 teams (more than 55,769pts) odds on to win even at this stage. Another rule of thumb could be the winner will definatly come from a team in the top 3 quarters or most likely from a team in the top 25%. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted January 27, 2011 Erm, all well and good, but where were you when they wanted to stop Skylab falling out of orbit? As far as I can remember, I was yet to be a fully qualified space cadet at that time. In the round I throught it was a shame. I would have thought the orbit was high enough. Just shows that the station needed it's own radio-controled flight module that could have made remote controlled orbit adjustments without crew aboard. Otherwise I would have sheduled an orbit changing flight instead of doing the USA/CCCP meet-up. From Wiki: Skylab B A flight-quality backup Skylab was built. NASA considered using it for a second Skylab B station in May 1973 or later, but decided against it. Launching another Skylab with another Saturn V rocket would have been very costly, and it was decided to spend this money on the development of the Space Shuttle, instead. The backup is on display at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington, D.C. Been there, done that, got the T shirt. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
time 8,599 Posted January 27, 2011 Erm, all well and good, but where were you when they wanted to stop Skylab falling out of orbit? As far as I can remember, I was yet to be a fully qualified space cadet at that time. In the round I throught it was a shame. I would have thought the orbit was high enough. Just shows that the station needed it's own radio-controled flight module that could have made remote controlled orbit adjustments without crew aboard. Otherwise I would have sheduled an obit changing flight instead of doing the USA/CCCP meet-up. From Wiki: Skylab B A flight-quality backup Skylab was built. NASA considered using it for a second Skylab B station in May 1973 or later, but decided against it. Launching another Skylab with another Saturn V rocket would have been very costly, and it was decided to spend this money on the development of the Space Shuttle, instead. The backup is on display at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington, D.C. Been there, done that, got the T shirt. As far as I recall there were no fatalities from Skylab's re-entry and subsequent crash (into the Pacific - or was that Mir?), as some enterprising folk started marketing Skylab protective hard-hats. The jingle began "i'm protected, he's protected, we're protected..." and was pretty annoying. I've also been to the Arr & Space museum but I got a Smithsonian Sweatshirt (which I'm sure I must still have somewhere, even though its shrunk and is now too small). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr.3374 1 Posted January 27, 2011 Erm, all well and good, but where were you when they wanted to stop Skylab falling out of orbit? As far as I can remember, I was yet to be a fully qualified space cadet at that time. In the round I throught it was a shame. I would have thought the orbit was high enough. Just shows that the station needed it's own radio-controled flight module that could have made remote controlled orbit adjustments without crew aboard. Otherwise I would have sheduled an obit changing flight instead of doing the USA/CCCP meet-up. From Wiki: Skylab B A flight-quality backup Skylab was built. NASA considered using it for a second Skylab B station in May 1973 or later, but decided against it. Launching another Skylab with another Saturn V rocket would have been very costly, and it was decided to spend this money on the development of the Space Shuttle, instead. The backup is on display at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington, D.C. Been there, done that, got the T shirt. As far as I recall there were no fatalities from Skylab's re-entry and subsequent crash (into the Pacific - or was that Mir?), as some enterprising folk started marketing Skylab protective hard-hats. The jingle began "i'm protected, he's protected, we're protected..." and was pretty annoying. I've also been to the Arr & Space museum but I got a Smithsonian Sweatshirt (which I'm sure I must still have somewhere, even though its shrunk and is now too small). Ok, erm, I suppose I did ask. I know not to in future. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarolAnn 926 Posted January 28, 2011 Anyway I've looked at each team's "predictable risk" in turn and starting favorites to win look like this: 47,967 Spade Cooley 45,502 Bert Trautman 45,403 Maryport 44,569 Time 44,517 Garn2 44,379 DDT 43,434 msc 43,278 Captain Chorizo 43,233 LG 41,466 HCW 40,910 Toast 40,772 Madame Defarge 39,435 RA 39,306 CarolAnn 38,394 Six 37,401 Mr3374 35,966 EST.1993 Ok... so this is bad...? Well like Maryport said - a lot can happen in the course of a year. It's not like your list is the worst - just that doing a few sums now after the selections are cast in stone it just looks like you could have chosen a different order to protect your risks a little better. Below I've re-used all your list and put them in an order that could give you a perceived risk score of 42,593. But your list order could still be better than this by a country mile! It's just good or poor luck at the end of the day. Like, I'm sure Jack Nicklaus said "it's all luck, but the more I practice the luckier I seem to get" 1. Lindsay Lohan 5. Paul Gascoigne 10. Seve Ballesteros 18. Muhammad Ali 17. Clive Dunn 4. Stephen Hawking 14. Eric Sykes 13. Denis Norden 21. Michael Douglas 8. Jack Klugman 15. Eli Wallach 2. Elizabeth Taylor 12. Penny Marshall 19. Abdelbaset Al Megrahi 22. Dick Cheney 20. Aretha Franklin 3. Nelson Mandela 7. Nancy Reagan 23. Olivia de Havilland 11. Richard Attenborough 6. Margaret Thatcher 16. Rev Billy Graham 9. Ronnie Biggs 24. Anna Wing 25. Oscar Niemeyer Then you get into a rule of thumb situation. Would a team with a greater perceived disadvantage of more than 10% be able to win this competition? I guess not, and that puts any of the top nine teams (more than 43,170pts) odds on to win even at this stage. Another rule of thumb could be the winner will definatly come from a team in the top 3 quarters or most likely from a team in the top 25%. Must be all fun and games around your house. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
