The EU Referendum Hokey Cokey

[Deathray 2,940]

Supposedly Labour will back People's Vote amendment on the deal.

 

Assuming in line voting:

 

Lab 245

SNP 35

LD 19

CUK 5

Plaid 4

Green 1

 

Total 309 votes for

 

If the DUP or a handful of independent Tories can be convinced to back confirmatory referendum (given support for Letwin amendment possible) then would be 319 votes for confirmatory referendum, which would pass it.

[Deathray 2,940]

Massive Brexit breakthrough No 4,000,000,000,000,000

 

Labour will possibly vote for Boris's deal if the second referendum amendment is passed. 

 

Boris's path through is simple now:

 

Concede the people's vote amendment and customs union amendment and pass his deal by an overwhelming majority.

[Deathray 2,940]

Speaker's statement due any minute now.

[YoungWillz 21,054]

22 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Speaker's statement due any minute now.

Summary:

 

Bog off Bawjaws and Rees-Mogg.

[Deathray 2,940]

Got to bring the legislation forward.

[Deathray 2,940]

If your normal bedtime reading isn't doing the job, the full (110 page long) European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill 2019 has been published.

 

Just a reminder any MP who needs to table amendments to this must do so by tomorrow...

[bladan 293]

So what happens next in this idiotic soap opera

[runebomme 377]

4 minutes ago, bladan said:

So what happens next in this idiotic soap opera

extension probably

 

and then the stars, moon, the Sun and a black hole?

[Deathray 2,940]

3 minutes ago, bladan said:

So what happens next in this idiotic soap opera

 

 

The bill begins being debated in the house tomorrow and will conclude commons debate on Thursday.

If it passes all three stages (possibly subject to amendments which need to be tabled tonight) it then goes to the Lords over the weekend where it could be bounced back to the commons or pass to royal assent.

[bladan 293]

Asteroid time. Asteroid in the UK

[Deathray 2,940]

12 minutes ago, bladan said:

Asteroid time. Asteroid in the UK

 

More detailed answer to your question.

 

JRM's detailed business plan:

• Tuesday: 2nd reading until 7pm, then programme motion, then start of committee (3 hours)

• Wednesday: 4x3 hours, one section reserved for 2nd ref motions

• Thursday: 6 hours of report stage, 2 hours of 3rd reading

Deadline of amendments is end of 2nd reading.

[Deathray 2,940]

Couple of key things to watch for tonight.

 

Second Reading Vote

Programme Motion Vote.

 

If the Programme Motion is carried we will likely have the bill passed (depending on success or otherwise of 'wrecking' amendments) on Thursday evening.

If the Programme Motion fails the bill could be pulled either forcing the EU to grant the extension or heading us to no deal.

If the EU grant the extension the Queens Speech may be brought forward instead of the bill, given us an election called by next week.

[Deathray 2,940]

Gov confirming the above as policy. If programme motion fails they will

 

• Accept extension
• Bring FTPA motion for GE (2/3rds majority)
• Bring VoNC in themselves if FTPA motion fails (simple majority)

[Deathray 2,940]

Heading for the first December election since 1923 (97 years)

 

Boris would possibly (if Labour don't back FTPA motion) be the first PM to call a VoNC in himself. 

 

It would mark the 3rd general election in 4 calendar years - the first time since 1922-1924 when there was 3 in 3 calendar years.

 

It would be the first time the overwhelming majority of those old enough to vote will have voted so frequently in general elections as to have 3 general elections within what would normally be a single parliamentary session length.

[msc 18,476]

27 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Heading for the first December election since 1923 (97 years)

 

It would mark the 3rd general election in 4 calendar years - the first time since 1922-1924 when there was 3 in 3 calendar years.

 

5 December elections in UK history and there was heavy anti-government swings in 3 of the 5!

 

When Gladstone gave some poor folk the vote, and when the Tories won the Boer war, no swing against. When there was 2 elections in one year and folk blamed the government for the death of Edward VII (ie Timothy West), the infamous coupon election, and the 1923 first Labour election win all produced backlashes against the incumbency.

 

This is what we call a coincidence, but an amusing enough one to bring up anyhow.

[Deathray 2,940]

18 minutes ago, msc said:

 

5 December elections in UK history and there was heavy anti-government swings in 3 of the 5!

 

When Gladstone gave some poor folk the vote, and when the Tories won the Boer war, no swing against. When there was 2 elections in one year and folk blamed the government for the death of Edward VII (ie Timothy West), the infamous coupon election, and the 1923 first Labour election win all produced backlashes against the incumbency.

  

This is what we call a coincidence, but an amusing enough one to bring up anyhow.

 

A coincidence that barring miracles is likely to be broken in this one. Of course if Gov is forced to VoNC themselves it may be a January election.

 

Even as a remainer I can't help but feel a sense of relief that the GE many of us have wanted for at least 12 months has finally been brought to the brink of being engineered. 

 

Our system is not designed for this kind of stalemate.

[msc 18,476]

30 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

A coincidence that barring miracles is likely to be broken in this one. Of course if Gov is forced to VoNC themselves it may be a January election.

 

Even as a remainer I can't help but feel a sense of relief that the GE many of us have wanted for at least 12 months has finally been brought to the brink of being engineered. 

 

Our system is not designed for this kind of stalemate.

 

Yeah, that wasn't a prediction, just a spot for some historical trivia.

 

Although did you see the BBC accidentally spoiled the next election on BBC news the other day by putting up the wrong graphic?

 

 

[Deathray 2,940]

16 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Yeah, that wasn't a prediction, just a spot for some historical trivia.

 

Although did you see the BBC accidentally spoiled the next election on BBC news the other day by putting up the wrong graphic?

  

 

 

If that comes to pass I'll but everyone on here a box of beer and post it to them.

 

*Disclaimer, applies to exact seat tally not Lab majority.

[msc 18,476]

2 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

If that comes to pass I'll but everyone on here a box of beer and post it to them.

 

If that happens, I'll accept!

 

Might need to give a few boxes to Sean for the shock, though.

[bladan 293]

Yes send me beer ASAP. I just bought 24 cans. By next morning they're gone. I don't believe any of that health bs

[Deathray 2,940]

Here we go.

 

Second Reading Passes 329-299

Timetable Motion Fails 322-308

 

Government expected to bull bill and try for a general election.....

 

[gcreptile 10,978]

What's the angle here? The deal is passed, but Johnson wants it to be quicker? I mean, why insist on the speed?

[YoungWillz 21,054]

20 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

What's the angle here? The deal is passed, but Johnson wants it to be quicker? I mean, why insist on the speed?

We all know Bawjaws loves a quickie.

 

 

[Deathray 2,940]

35 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

What's the angle here? The deal is passed, but Johnson wants it to be quicker? I mean, why insist on the speed?

 

Because if it's giving an extended timetable the government has more chance of losing on opposition amendments to the deal and it brings up the possibility of:

• People's Vote
• Customs Union
• Parliamentary veto on FTA
• More workers rights/EU laws imported
• Free Movement extensions

 

The list goes on. The withdrawal of the bill is essentially a final prep for the inevitable election (if the EU grants an extension to the 31st January) to frame parliament as voting to 'Stop Brexit' (as this is the ticket BoJo thinks he can win on). Boris politically cannot allow himself to be seen as responsible for any post-31st October leave date, it has to be parliament and/or the European Union who are responsible for it.

 

He wanted to ram it through unamended, the fact he lost the programme motion shows whilst there is a majority for a deal, there's also a majority for a different deal to Johnson's - proceeding with the legislation without the majority government he expects to win at the polls could seriously frustrate./alter his Brexit deal.

[Deathray 2,940]

Queens Speech on Thursday vote.

 

The government may lose the Queens Speech (it's tight) if they do lose the Queens Speech it may give Boris the cover to request the extension - to request an extension.