Deathlist correctlist 2019

[paddyfool 379]

And Jacques makes it neuf. Scores to update later.

 

9 deaths so far in September would seem to put those predicting a total of about 12 in a good position...

[paddyfool 379]

And the scores are up.

 

YoungWillz is currently spot on for number of deaths, and unsurprisingly in the lead... but that lead is now looking pretty precarious, as each additional death should bring rivals' totals closer to the mark, and his further off.  Speaking of rivals, Banana has had an amazing round, shooting up into 2nd place as he scores his 6th death and gets within 5 of the total score, as well as being tied with En Passant and now ebless for total hits. Overall, though, there isn't that much movement in the table, as only 6 punters picked Chirac to fall.

 

Player	Score	Hits	Change in score
YoungWillz	5	5	2
Banana	1	6	5
The Quim Reaper	0	5	0
Grim Up North	0	4	0
John Key	-1	2	0
Sir Creep	-2	5	0
Phantom of the Midway	-2	4	0
drol	-2	3	0
gcreptile	-3	5	0
Torva Messor	-3	5	0
alt obits guy	-3	4	0
Bibliogryphon	-3	4	2
Joey Russ	-4	5	2
En Passant	-5	6	0
Book	-5	5	0
SuperSowder	-5	4	2
BlackLivio	-5	3	0
Master Tech	-5	3	0
Sean	-5	3	0
ebless	-6	6	3
Zefph	-6	3	0
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-7	5	0
The Cosgroves	-7	3	0
msc	-8	5	0
Dr_T	-8	4	0
theoldlady	-9	1	0
The Old Crem	-10	5	0
nantonian2013	-10	3	0
Squonk	-10	3	0
Gooseberry Crumble	-13	4	2

 

 

[En Passant 3,755]

On 02/01/2019 at 14:25, En Passant said:

Sets, or Venn Diagrams, or something.

1. Bob Hawke
2. Bob Dole
3. Bob Barker - Bad year for being a Bob, that's a full set
4. Robert Mugabe - No, not being caught out by that one
5. Nobby Stiles - One letter off but gets caught circling too close to the drain (and Venn's into two other categories below anyway)
6. Jimmy Greaves
7. Gordon Banks - Making a sweep of the footballers and giving me the chance to quip "They think it's all over...It is now"
8. Stirling Moss
9. John McCririck
10. Murray Walker
11. Phil the Greek - Complete's anyone sport's related - nearly missed him, but he was in that daft horse and carriage Olympic 'event' that they say is a sport and I don't have the space to argue.
12. Johnny Clegg - together with McCririck completing the John's.
13. Vera Lynn
14. Kirk Douglas
15. Herman Wouk
16. Olivia De Havilland - Cha-ching. Centenarian slot blocker clearout complete
17. Leah Bracknell - One off, so doesn't fit and thus becomes the default Joker  (Which I'm certain TQR thinks she has now become professionally)

17 Down.

 

2 of 4 bobs.

2 of 7 sports.

1 of 3 football.

1 of 4 centenarians.

2 of 2 Johns (There's an off-colour joke in there somewhere).

 

No set is now clear of a hit. One is completed.

Is this of the slightest interest to anyone? No. Of course not.

But I'm not last, am in fact joint top on direct hits, didn't go out in a stupid fashion by entering a team too late and have some chance of improving in the last 3 months of the year. It's a non-crash and burn and I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.

 

[Joey Russ 7,267]

Baker may shake things up a bit.. 

[paddyfool 379]

12 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Baker may shake things up a bit.. 

 

I think it'll all get a little bit closer at the top and bottom. Expect an update tomorrow. 

[paddyfool 379]

And with Baker making it an even 10, the field of scores gets a tad closer, with a fair bit of movement in the table despite only 4 punters predicting this outcome.

 

YoungWillz slips a bit but remains on top of the table for now, sitting pretty on 3 points; but with this chasing field, he could well be overtaken with just one more death.  Joey Russ and Sir Creep both move up into equal second on score and into equal first on total hits.  Those who predicted 15 total deaths go up by 2 points for getting within 5 deaths of the total, and Drol goes up by 1 point for getting within 1 death of the total.  

 

Player	Score	Hits	Change in score
YoungWillz	3	5	-2
Joey Russ	1	6	5
Sir Creep	1	6	3
Banana	1	6	0
Grim Up North	0	4	0
The Quim Reaper	0	5	0
John Key	-1	2	0
drol	-1	3	1
Torva Messor	-1	5	2
Phantom of the Midway	-2	4	0
gcreptile	-3	5	0
alt obits guy	-3	4	0
Bibliogryphon	-3	4	0
Sean	-5	3	0
En Passant	-5	6	0
Book	-5	5	0
Master Tech	-5	3	0
BlackLivio	-5	3	0
SuperSowder	-5	4	0
Zefph	-6	3	0
ebless	-6	6	0
Dr_T	-6	4	2
The Cosgroves	-7	3	0
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-7	5	0
msc	-8	5	0
nantonian2013	-8	3	2
Squonk	-8	4	2
theoldlady	-9	1	0
The Old Crem	-10	5	0
Gooseberry Crumble	-11	5	2

[paddyfool 379]

As Leah leaves this world, the scores go all over the shop.  Jokers, total estimate bonuses, total hit bonuses - you name it, most players do well this round, some by substantial amounts.  Youngwillz remains in the lead and increases his score despite losing out on the estimate bonus, but others are closing in, and 14 out of the 30 punters are now out of the negatives.  EDIT: Also, congrats to Gooseberry Crumble for escaping the bottom of the table.

 

(Incidentally, two of the points gained by one player are on account of my correcting a prior mistake where they still had the 2 point penalty for being more than 5 out when they shouldn't have done.  If you can spot who it is, I'll be mightily impressed).

 

Player	Score	Hits	Change in score
YoungWillz	5	6	2
The Quim Reaper	3	6	3
John Key	3	3	4
Sir Creep	3	7	2
Banana	3	7	2
drol	3	4	4
alt obits guy	2	5	5
Torva Messor	2	6	3
Grim Up North	1	4	1
Joey Russ	1	6	0
Phantom of the Midway	1	5	3
Sean	0	4	5
Book	0	6	5
Master Tech	0	4	5
gcreptile	-1	5	2
En Passant	-1	7	4
SuperSowder	-1	5	4
Dr_T	-2	5	4
Bibliogryphon	-3	4	0
BlackLivio	-3	4	2
ebless	-4	7	2
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-4	6	3
msc	-5	6	3
The Cosgroves	-5	4	2
Zefph	-6	3	0
Squonk	-6	4	2
nantonian2013	-8	3	0
theoldlady	-8	1	1
Gooseberry Crumble	-8	6	3
The Old Crem	-10	5	0

[paddyfool 379]

With the popularly picked Clive James bringing the total to the also popular prediction of 12 total deaths, alt obits guy and Phantom of the Midway have a very good round, boosting their scores by 5 apiece and jumping into equal 1st and 3rd respectively.  YoungWillz remains on top of the table alongside alt obits guy, and still official 1st position based on the first tie-breaker rule of most total hits (which is now included in the table sorting).  Overall, the majority of punters are now in the positives.  Banana and Ebless are tied for most total hits on 8 apiece ,while YoungWillz and John Key are tied for fewest incorrect-so-far guesses on 2 apiece.

 

Player	Score	Hits	Change in score
YoungWillz	7	7	2
alt obits guy	7	6	5
Phantom of the Midway	6	6	5
Banana	5	8	2
Grim Up North	5	5	4
Sir Creep	4	7	1
The Quim Reaper	4	6	1
Sean	4	5	4
Joey Russ	3	7	2
drol	3	5	0
John Key	3	3	0
Book	2	7	2
Torva Messor	2	6	0
Master Tech	2	4	2
En Passant	1	7	2
Dr_T	1	6	3
Bibliogryphon	0	5	3
gcreptile	-1	5	0
SuperSowder	-1	5	0
ebless	-2	8	2
Great Uncle Bulgaria	-2	7	2
BlackLivio	-2	4	1
Squonk	-4	5	2
The Cosgroves	-4	4	1
theoldlady	-4	2	4
msc	-5	6	0
Zefph	-5	3	1
nantonian2013	-6	4	2
The Old Crem	-7	6	3
Gooseberry Crumble	-8	6	0

 

[YoungWillz 21,231]

Oh my lord, I've never been on top for this long! (Make up your own jokes).

 

Hall of Fame beckons at last?

 

Probably not, lol. Most excitement I've had on here ever though.

[paddyfool 379]

On 27/11/2019 at 21:43, YoungWillz said:

Oh my lord, I've never been on top for this long! (Make up your own jokes).

 

Hall of Fame beckons at last?

 

Probably not, lol. Most excitement I've had on here ever though.

 

Actually, it's not all that improbable. Four of the other punters with scores of 4 or more put forward a prediction of 12 deaths, so may well slip further away rather than draw closer with another death this year. The greatest threat to your position may come from Banana, Sir Creep or The Quim Reaper, any of whom might win with the right death. 

[paddyfool 379]

On 17/07/2019 at 22:22, paddyfool said:

 

You've got a fair chance of winning as long as the total deaths add up to 10 or fewer. Any higher, though, and your chances of being in the top spot are basically negligible.

 

Incidentally, any forecasts I make should be taken with a large pinch of salt.  

[paddyfool 379]

Possible outcomes at this stage:

1) No more deaths: YoungWillz wins

2) One more death:

- If it's Ed Asner or Sidney Poitier, YoungWillz gets even more points and wins

- If it's Bob Barker, de Cuellar, Jerry Stiller, Kirk Douglas, Nobby Stiles, or Olivia de Havilland, then Banana wins

- If it's June Brown, Prunella Scales, d'Estaing, or Vera Lynn, then Sir Creep wins

- If it's Little Richard, Loretta Lynn, Mikhail Gorbachev, or Stirling Moss, then The Quim Reaper wins

- If it's Barbara Walters or Bob Dole, then alt obits guy wins

- If it's anybody else, then I'm pretty sure YoungWillz still wins (although there may be a joker somewhere that could upset matters)

3) 2 or more deaths remaining: No idea who wins, but Banana is in an excellent position with regards to this outcome, as he could potentially win on 14 total deaths even without making any more hits.

[YoungWillz 21,231]

Nobody Die! Ya hear me? I want that Hall of Fame spot!

 

Go on, be sports and stay alive!

[Sir Creep 7,071]

That's interesting cuz I was certain Bob Barker put me over the top (no one above me had him) but I know scoring doesn't work quite that way.  Well, I still have a shot, and Prunella/June/Vera are legit.  C'mon ladies!

[paddyfool 379]

17 hours ago, Sir Creep said:

That's interesting cuz I was certain Bob Barker put me over the top (no one above me had him) but I know scoring doesn't work quite that way.  Well, I still have a shot, and Prunella/June/Vera are legit.  C'mon ladies!

 

Banana also has Bob Barker, and would end up with more points overall in the event of his passing. 

[YoungWillz 21,231]

Go on, I'll tempt fate.

 

Less than three weeks to go!

[paddyfool 379]

4 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Go on, I'll tempt fate.

 

Less than three weeks to go!

 

At the current rate of deaths, I make the probability of no more deaths occurring to be about 50%. If roughly 1/30 days see at least one death, then the probability of a day without a death is 29/30... so the probability of no more deaths is currently about 29/30 ^ 20.25, or 0.50. (I haven't adjusted for any variation in the deathlist's hitrate by month, as I CBA to look up how much this varies).

[Sir Creep 7,071]

Sir Creep waiting for a June Brown, Prunella Scales, Valery Giscard d'Estaing, or Vera Lynn QO.

 

 

[paddyfool 379]

Alas, Sir Creep, although it would be classy to win with a unique like d'Estaing, I'd estimate your chances of victory as being less than 5%.

 

Meanwhile, with only 10 days left to go, the probability of no more deaths has risen to about 70% (calculated as (28/29)^ 10). YoungWillz, are you getting excited yet?

[YoungWillz 21,231]

1 hour ago, paddyfool said:

Alas, Sir Creep, although it would be classy to win with a unique like d'Estaing, I'd estimate your chances of victory as being less than 5%.

 

Meanwhile, with only 10 days left to go, the probability of no more deaths has risen to about 70% (calculated as (28/29)^ 10). YoungWillz, are you getting excited yet?

Not really.

 

I remember the Christmas massacre of 2016. I've got a feeling that if Poitier doesn't snuff it in the next few days, someone else will and I'll be done. Prince Pip being the number one contender at present.

 

Anyhow, if I do make it, it'll be my first victory on a death pool ever. (Come on you Jags!)

[YoungWillz 21,231]

Have I managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with Britton's death?

 

I bloody knew it, didn't I say? Come on I need an Ed Asner to help me out in a week or so...

[paddyfool 379]

I'm away from computer, but I believe YoungWillz' pole position is still safe for now. Tony Britton was not picked by many punters.

[paddyfool 379]

And the scores are in.  No time for commentary for now, except to point out just how close things are at the top:

 

Player	Score	Hits	Change in score
YoungWillz	7	7	0
Banana	6	8	1
Sir Creep	6	7	2
Phantom of the Midway	6	7	0
The Quim Reaper	6	6	2
alt obits guy	5	6	-2
drol	5	6	2
Joey Russ	3	7	0
Grim Up North	3	5	-2
John Key	3	3	0
Great Uncle Bulgaria	2	8	4
Book	2	7	0
Torva Messor	2	6	0
Sean	2	5	-2
Bibliogryphon	2	5	2
En Passant	1	7	0
Dr_T	1	6	0
gcreptile	0	5	1
SuperSowder	0	5	1
Master Tech	0	4	-2
BlackLivio	0	4	2
Zefph	-1	4	4
ebless	-2	8	0
The Cosgroves	-2	4	2
msc	-3	7	2
Squonk	-4	5	0
nantonian2013	-6	4	0
theoldlady	-6	2	-2
The Old Crem	-7	6	0
Gooseberry Crumble	-8	6	0

[YoungWillz 21,231]

As a tribute to the Max von Sydow naysayers on here and again prodding fate in the chest:

 

"Flash, Flash, I love you. But we only have a little over 60 hours to win this thing!"

 

[YoungWillz 21,231]

Winner winner Hall Of Fame Chicken Dinner?

 

Is it? Could it? Nooo, I'm a lil bit tipsy....'mon.